A.P.O'Brien.

Gareth Flynn said:
Didn't Workforce win a Derby on fast ground by 7 lengths in super-fast time? What exactly are the chances of a horse doing that who doesn't like fast ground? Timeform now have Workforce running to 131 or more on three occasions - two of them on what they consider to be Good To Firm ground. Again, what are the chances of a horse being capable of that kind of form on ground he doesn't like? Are you expecting him to improve (significantly?) when he gets to run on softer ground again?
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many horses that don't relish fast ground do so once...if you check teh form of a number of slower ground horses..i'll bet a high % have a win on fast ground...you are treating it very black & white..which is normally my job :lol:

if you look at what winning on fast ground did to WF last year..then its clear he don't relish it..he ran lbs below his best in the KG and it took a good rest and slower ground to bring about his Arc win

i know there isn't masses of evidence here..but one win doesn't mean its so..look at Cape Blanco..won an Irish Derby and flopped every other time over 12..but was a world beater over 10. Some will say he must have stayed 12..but the later eveidence shows a better animal at 10..horse now totally ruined of course.
 
sunybay said:
Sri Putra is improving and on figures , he is able to post a 120 in the RPR scale.
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but unable to win consistently at Group 3 level..also beaten in a C stakes against listed? ..horses

if he is a 120 horse..i'd be very angry as the owner looking at his record.

seems a bit odd to me;)
 
EC1 said:
Cape Blanco..won an Irish Derby and flopped every other time over 12..but was a world beater over 10. Some will say he must have stayed 12..but the later eveidence shows a better animal at 10..horse now totally ruined of course.
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He only ran on two other occasions over 1m4f, came 2nd in the King George and tailed off in the Arc on soft ground.

The horse is ruined in general now, certainly not because of his campaigning over 1m4f, he's ran creditably in the Dubai World Cup since running over 1m4f.
 
Gamla Stan said:
He only ran on two other occasions over 1m4f, came 2nd in the King George and tailed off in the Arc on soft ground.

The horse is ruined in general now, certainly not because of his campaigning over 1m4f, he's ran creditably in the Dubai World Cup since running over 1m4f.
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2nd..totally legless in KG..not a good staying example

spotting he was a 10f horse got me a good pay day in Ireland..so i'm happy with my assessment

what is happening with him now is a disgrace..i didn't mean 12f ruined him by the way...if it were Godolphin who had done it to him we would have a thread on here condemning it ;)
 
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The Juddmonte would be fascinating as it is over half a furlong further . Though Frankel might lie in wait for SYT there.
 
Gamla Stan said:
He only ran on two other occasions over 1m4f, came 2nd in the King George and tailed off in the Arc on soft ground.

The horse is ruined in general now, certainly not because of his campaigning over 1m4f, he's ran creditably in the Dubai World Cup since running over 1m4f.
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I'll stand out against the seeming consensus on this forum that Cape Blanco is now finished. I take it that people feel this to be the case because of the unsuitable pacemaking role allotted to him in the Queen Anne (I agree this was shocking and short-sighted and bad for the horse). I still think that Cape Blanco can recover from this if he is placed correctly from now on. Does anyone know if they are considering running him in the Arlington Million?
 
Ardross said:
The Juddmonte would be fascinating as it is over half a furlong further . Though Frankel might lie in wait for SYT there.
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I love the idea of Frankel vs. SYT vs. Rewilding in this. Hope Rewilding misses the KG and goes to York. Would be fascinating - oh so difficult to predict!
 
Nefertiti said:
I'll stand out against the seeming consensus on this forum that Cape Blanco is now finished. I take it that people feel this to be the case because of the unsuitable pacemaking role allotted to him in the Queen Anne (I agree this was shocking and short-sighted and bad for the horse). I still think that Cape Blanco can recover from this if he is placed correctly from now on. Does anyone know if they are considering running him in the Arlington Million?
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The Arlington Million might be a possibility all right. I'd agree both that Cape Blanco may not be a spent force, and that it was wrong to use a horse of his calibre the way he was used in the Queen Anne.

Incidentally, it says a lot for Coolmore's view of last season's Irish Derby that having owned the first three home, they've sold Midas Touch, and used Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer as pacemakers this season.
 
Sorry, wrong thread! Belongs in Eclipse!
I haven't read this thread fully .. so sorry if this has already been aired.

What did you think when WF kicked on? Obviously, with 120yds to go, he looked to have won. ... SYT was plenty quick enough to look as tho he always had WF covered, as it turned out.

Should the pace have been higher? Should WF have gone even earlier?

As it was, it looked perfectly set up for SYT.
 
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Ardross said:
The Juddmonte would be fascinating as it is over half a furlong further . Though Frankel might lie in wait for SYT there.
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Grey will tell you how much I fancied SYT for the Eclipse and I'd fancy WF to beat Frankel anyday so I'm with SYT again to beat Frankel in the Juddmonte. I think it is an easier task than the eclipse.
 
Melendez said:
This could also be a cheap way of advertising the hype for the horse. I think Coolmore regularly do this with their good 2 year olds to make them stupid short prices for the Guineas.

Is a seemingly heavily anticipated Eclipse winner worth more at stud than one that was a pleasant surprise to connections? It's probably marginal, breeders seem to be fairly unsophisticated form readers. How much will it cost Coolmore? Probably nothing as knowing what runs where can often compensate for taking a few spots under the "real" price on other occasions.
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I can't say for sure, but i'd fancy a shade of odds on that you are way off the mark here. You will not see one advertisement from Coolmore talking about SYT being a "heavily backed" winner of the Eclipse.
 
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Workforce and the ground is one of the biggest red herrings in the sport at present, seemingly based on a solitary poor run at Ascot. He clearly ran well below form that day. I don't know why it was, but I'm 100% confident why it wasn't.
 
Cantoris said:
I can't say for sure, but i'd fancy a shade of odds on that you are way off the mark here. You will not see one advertisement from Coolmore talking about SYT being a "heavily backed" winner of the Eclipse.
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No, but it alerts the press that somebody in the know thinks this is a superstar, and may influence some within the media to big the horse up that little bit more, maybe even have the raters crediting him with the extra couple of pounds they'll always have at their discretion. It can make a big difference where the form comes back unfathomable a la Hawk Wing's Lockinge.

I have no knowledge they are doing it and maybe I am way off the mark, but it does seem to reinforce the "serious" lines poor old Aidan is fed to pass on to the press - do they advertise that AOB described the horse as "serious"?. If I'm right they would only do it with horses they consider genuine stallion prospects so obviously you'd expect them to collect now and then. It might even persaude prospective hurdle purchasers to dig another few thousand deeper for the failures.
 
Workforce and the ground is one of the biggest red herrings in the sport at present
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So its a myth the very experienced connections are buying into then? Didnt Stoute raise concerns about the ground before last years Derby?
 
Is a seemingly heavily anticipated Eclipse winner worth more at stud than one that was a pleasant surprise to connections? It's probably marginal, breeders seem to be fairly unsophisticated form readers. How much will it cost Coolmore? Probably nothing as knowing what runs where can often compensate for taking a few spots under the "real" price on other occasions.
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Interesting. Never thought about it that way, but does make sense...

Very good point.
 
davidjohnson said:
Workforce and the ground is one of the biggest red herrings in the sport at present, seemingly based on a solitary poor run at Ascot. He clearly ran well below form that day. I don't know why it was, but I'm 100% confident why it wasn't.
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a heavy topped horse who you could see was hitting the ground harder than SYT..

the law of physics says its going to be less pleasant running on a harder surface for the horse

why don't you explain why its a red herring?...I assume you backed WF on Saturday..but you still think he runs his best on fast ground..thats a puzzler for me.
 
Perhaps we are coming from a different perspective with regards effectiveness. For me a horse is effective under certain conditions if it runs to it's best under them. As it stands, imo Workforce's 2 best runs have come in the Derby and Eclipse, both on good to firm. Therefore I have no concerns about him not giving his running under such conditions. When he goes on and shows even better form on more testing conditions I'll buy into it.

Yes, I did back Workforce and concede he was beaten by a better horse on the day at 10f. Simple as. Horses do get beat on occasions without excuse.

Albertas Run is a good expample of a horse I was happy to change my mind on re; ground. He was a winner of good handicap hurdles and a Sun Aliiance on soft/good to soft. But all his 160+ chasing form has come on quickish ground. These days I'm happy to admit he's best on a sound surface.
 
clivex said:
So its a myth the very experienced connections are buying into then? Didnt Stoute raise concerns about the ground before last years Derby?
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By all means Stoute may have been right to raise the theory before the Derby, a wide margin win in record time rather debunked it for me though.
 
I know what you are saying but it also strikes me that they see the horse as one whos physically better on good or softer and thats not going to change. They should know. I still think that Stoutes original view is worth taking on board
 
I think he'll be chronically overbet on a softish surface when he apparently gets his ground, when in my opinion, all evidence so far points to him being fully effective on good to firm.

One bad run, where he was pulling hard, didn't get cover, and didn't look himself from a long way out, is far less compelling evidence that he doesn't act on good to firm than his efforts in the Derby and Eclipse are as evidence that he does.
 
davidjohnson said:
I think he'll be chronically overbet on a softish surface when he apparently gets his ground, when in my opinion, all evidence so far points to him being fully effective on good to firm.

One bad run, where he was pulling hard, didn't get cover, and didn't look himself from a long way out, is far less compelling evidence that he doesn't act on good to firm than his efforts in the Derby and Eclipse are as evidence that he does.
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he wasn't overbet in the Arc..he was a decent price..i backed him because as i stated on that Arc thread..i thought we would see a better animal on that ground

how you can rate his run on Saturday above his Arc win..is a mystery to me mind you

don't forget..between the Derby and KG..he will have gained weight..which may also explain him disliking the ground in the KG

if its fast in the Arc..i won't be interested..i will only back ihim on an easier surface..but i personally hope many people do believe he is better on fast..its good for the odds :)
 
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