Aftertiming thread

Euronymous said:
Can I after-time not backing a winner? So I'm doing my racing review after Goodwood and re-watching the Stewards Cup Rohaan initially caught my eye after a tardy start and then his move from the rear of the field to the right hand side of it as he sort of challenged for the places but in re-watching it a few times Dare to Hope was also sticking out as noteworthy given the passage he endured. But I looked at his profile and he seemed a bit exposed over 6f handicaps. I guess I should have gone back and watched some of his other races.
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:)
Did much the same with Lethal Levi yesterday - after convincing myself he'd stay.
Should be chuffed,really.
 
I was going to back Fourofakind 22/1 at Perth yesterday after thinking that a change to a smaller stable might have freshened him up (because that’s what happened with Wise Eagle) but talked myself out of it.
 
Anyone have any inkling why Wigmore Street drifted the way he did?

Looked nailed on for first 4 to me when he was 12s this morning. Took the mid 40s BF just before the off with some of the winnings from Robi's Sandown 100-1 3rd earlier. Didn't look likely when still last about a furlong out, but WS is inexperienced and maybe this was a masterly planned ride (by trainer and jockey) to come down the outside and not get spooked in among horses during the rest of the race.
 
Well done, chaumi!

Watched the race and had thought about backing it with it being Coolmore in a valuable hcap but couldn't be arsed going through the rejections on the bookies going through the best odds.

Hard to say if it was Moore being brilliant or lucky that they went too fast but it was a hugely exciting finish whether anyone had a bet in the race or not. The handicapper will have ben pleased with himself and the principals won't go up much at all.
 
So we went to Kelso to see our friends horse run in the bumper. But last night I noticed that an outsider, Beyond the Verge was blue across the board on oddschecker albeit still being an outsider, a position it maintained right up to race time. But it had sparked an interest. By Telescope out of an unraced mare that, at the age of 14 has only had the one foal. Was green in the paddock and green in the race but still won at 18/1 ( was 20’s last night). I’m going to keep an eye on this one. I’d love to find out more about her dam; can’t help but feel there’s a story behind it. ( I think Susan Corbett is a trainer worth following; has a very good strike rate with the few horses she has…)
 
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Kind of aftertiming here...

I took 12/1 Liberty Lane this morning.

It needs contextualising, though, as he was one of several (to varying stakes) darts I fired at the race but he was my second-biggest bet in it. Thankfully I paid no attention to the received wisdom regarding the draw (remembering Kaity Nowaity hacked up on the far side about 20 years ago) but it was the only one drawn lower than 16.

I say 'kind of' aftertiming because I didn't mention it on here but did email my figures and thoughts to my brothers yesterday and he was one I highlighted.
 
I should have done.i was in two minds to back him a/p at 20/1
He won over c/d earlier in the season when the first 6 were all low.
Another bad decision.
 
moehat said:
So we went to Kelso to see our friends horse run in the bumper. But last night I noticed that an outsider, Beyond the Verge was blue across the board on oddschecker albeit still being an outsider, a position it maintained right up to race time. But it had sparked an interest. By Telescope out of an unraced mare that, at the age of 14 has only had the one foal. Was green in the paddock and green in the race but still won at 18/1 ( was 20’s last night). I’m going to keep an eye on this one. I’d love to find out more about her dam; can’t help but feel there’s a story behind it. ( I think Susan Corbett is a trainer worth following; has a very good strike rate with the few horses she has…)
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Oh no. She just had a 20/1 winner at Kelso and we were travelling home and I didn’t check today’s card. Her strike rate is amazing ( on top of that the dog stole a fruit scone when we got home and we’re unpacking; I caught her almost straight away so I’m justhoping she didn’t eat any sultanas…it’s been one of those days). I backed her two runners the other day and they were unplaced and a second.
 
Marb said:
Couple more placers at decent odds. It's been a good day already. I'm nicely in profit.
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Well done! I’m relieved that this is in the aftertiming thread though because I’ve been out all day and, if you’d tipped it up earlier and I’d missed it I would have been really brassed off! Is it your first 100/1 winner? It took me more years than you’ve been alive for to get the elusive 100/1 winner! After missing Mon Mome ( I’d backed him at 33/1 for the National) I finally got Edwulf in a race in Ireland.
 
moehat said:
Well done! I’m relieved that this is in the aftertiming thread though because I’ve been out all day and, if you’d tipped it up earlier and I’d missed it I would have been really brassed off! Is it your first 100/1 winner? It took me more years than you’ve been alive for to get the elusive 100/1 winner! After missing Mon Mome ( I’d backed him at 33/1 for the National) I finally got Edwulf in a race in Ireland.
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Cheers Moe.

What a day it's been.

I got £235 back from my 10p ew lucky 63 which cost £12.60p.

I thought I was due back £335, but after two phone calls to customer service, one email to customer service, and a trip down the bookies to talk to a cashier, I've now established that William Hill make up their own SP for French races. Henceforth, they decided to pay out at 80/1 and not 100/1, which cost me £100 in winnings.

I had Rashabar and Desperate Hero EW, and Friendly Soul who won aswell.

So two winners, two placers and two losers.

I thought it was a top days racing from a betting point of view. Needless to say my mum backed Bluestocking. If I'd backed her though at the early odds I would have won loads more, definately four figures. Ramatuelle was another one that got away from me in this Lucky 63. I backed her heavily at Royal Ascot when she got beat. It would have been good to have stuck with her.

But yeah can't complain. Plenty winners there today at Longchamp at backable prices. It may have been a below par renewal of the Arc but my gosh I wish I'd followed my mum in on Bluestocking. I'd be booking trips to the Caribbean now if I did.
 
I looked at the novice just finished at Carlisle this morning.

Sue Smith yard hasn't (or hadn't) hit form yet. Figured it was only a matter of time. Her two runners here had an interesting look (at likely odds)...and the rest looked beatable if either of her two had anything (which, over Carlisle's two and a half) was a possibility.

Ruled out Grand Geste and went for the Malinas runner The Big Breac (remember the name).

Blow me, GG jumps the last with the race won. I'm cursing. And then all of a sudden the Murphy horse is finishing strongly, and I'm praying 'please, please get him'.

He did, in the last 20 yards or so. Hooray. A missed 1000-1 winner would have been a pretty damaging way to start a jumps season's worth of betting :-) Mind you, a missed 200-1 2nd has its pain.
 
The Big Breac used be owned by a client of mine.
Needs a trip, needs fences and needs to be kept after to get a response but will keep finding.
Dun Doire was like that in his day; should TBB become half as good he will be worth following.
 
Thx Edgt, yeah I was thinking may have enough to win a two and a half novice, but further on it's when he goes up 3m+ and fences. Sadly, he did run through beaten horses to finish about 6th. Btn a longish way though, maybe enough to stay suitably off the radar for a bit.
 
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