Aig Irish Champion Hurdle

Bobbyjo,

I don't see what the problem is with what I have said?

Hardy Eustace's star is in the descendant, of that their can be little question. Al Eile is hardly top class, and is very inconsistent.

Sizing Europe's victory was impressive, but what did he beat? His price of 9/4 is terrible value considering Osana will be weighted to reverse form on Champion Hurdle day?

I think it is unwise to use form lines with Hardy Eustace because he is simply not improving (and I think he is in decline), so although some may point to HE's proximity to Sublimity in the 2007 Champion Hurdle as proof Sizing Europe is a shoe in at Cheltenham, I remain unconvinced.

I don't disagree he could win, but he is not a 9/4 chance. If you have a double figure each way ante-post voucher on him good luck, as it seems highly probable he will finish in the first three.
 
Hardy Eustace and Al Eile are running consistent this season and are very good markers to see where the rest are.

Sizing Europe is about right at 2/1 or 9/4
 
Hardy Eustace's star is in the descendant, of that their can be little question
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And that has been taken into account. He's not the same horse that won two Champion Hurdles, but he hasn't deteriorated that much - he's just come second in three Grade 1s running in the space of just over a month.

For me, the only worry about the form of Sunday's race is that Lounaos might have finished a little too close. But then I thought the same about Silent Oscar in last year's Festival Hurdle and look what he went on to do...
 
I think HE has been inconsistent this season as his defeat at the hands of Lough Derg proved.

The question to be asked is this - is Sizing Europe a genuine 170 + hurdler, as the literal form of his AIG win suggests. The opposing view would be Hardy Eustace continues in terminal decline, and Al Eile once again ran well below his 160 mark, and in doing so seriously flattering Sizing Europe.

Good luck to you if you think 2/1 is a fair price - for me it is a cast iron lay now.

Fans of Sizing Europe believe the AIG result shows him to be improving at a much faster rate than Osana and that he will overcome the revised terms in the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion Osana's demolition job of Katchit is of equal merit to Sizing Europe, and yet he is twice the price?

Moreover, the Greatwood Form hardly looks great in the context of Chilvalry and Trouble Bay's subsequent performances (beaten a total of 94 and 80 lengths respectively in each of their two subsequent visits to the track). Even Pigeon Island's form has tailed off as he has been ciaght by the handicapper.

To ingore Sublimity, Harchibald, Straw Bear and Jazz Messenger - horses with very solid Grade 1 form to their name - is madness.

I will hold my hands up and admit I was wrong come March 11th is he wins, but at present the price is all wrong and the hype is out of control.
 
the question really is...when will SE stop showing improvement?

ratings will mean nothing if the horse keeps moving forward at his present rate...there is NO hurdler in training going to beat him if he has not yet peaked

thats why discussing 6 lbs here and there looks a nonsense to me...remember Collier Bay...Holemoor Star,,,Mr Moonraker...Make A Stand...Gaye Brief...loads of others etc etc

all those horses improved massive amounts in a relatively small period of time.

Unlike the flat where a horse may make gradual improvement to the very top flight ...when a horse really takes to jumping the improvement rate can be immense.
 
To ingore Sublimity, Harchibald, Straw Bear and Jazz Messenger - horses with very solid Grade 1 form to their name - is madness.
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Yet you're happy to dismiss Sizing Europe by crabbing Al Eile and Hardy Eustace, two horses with very solid Grade 1 form which ties in very closely to the four you mention above?
 
totally agree Gareth

my experience of past hurdlers is that solid Grade 1 form in others will pale in to insignificance when a horse is on a massive upward stride.

hadn't Al Eile just shown best form for some time coming in to this race?...if HE is such a back number why wasn't he 16/1?

HE is no back number jsut yet...I would say he is still capable of placing in this years CH...he is one of the gutsiest horses in training...those sorts don't just drop from being Grade 1 to class B animals so easily...the backbone they show prevents that
 
Moreover, the Greatwood Form hardly looks great in the context of Chilvalry and Trouble Bay's subsequent performances (beaten a total of 94 and 80 lengths respectively in each of their two subsequent visits to the track). Even Pigeon Island's form has tailed off as he has been ciaght by the handicapper.
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Ok, so your references to the 6lb pull are now irrelevant considering you are conceding now that both horses have naturally improved since then....??
 
Just looking at the race now...looks to me as if Sizing Europe could go off really short on the day. Plenty could get stuck into him.
 
But surely if the conditions on the day are a mirror image of last year`s Sublimity will come in for heaps as well. I`ve taken 6.6 on the machine.
 
Originally posted by EC1@Jan 30 2008, 07:02 PM
6 lbs?

it is an obsession :laughing:

The Greatwood is ancient history to SE...he's on another level now and climbing.

it will need to be 26lb's
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6lbs is no big deal in the big scheme of things, especially since we're not talking handicap form (ref the Champion Hurdle).

However, Osana's subsequent form arguably represents even greater improvement than SE's.
 
I just can't get out of the mindset that last year's race fell into Sublimity's lap somewhat. Obviously he's very talented and will take some beating if produced spot on on the day, but the way SE was able to race so prominently on a decent pace and pull away easily on Sunday just seems more meritorious.
 
I agree with Gareth - we know so much more about Sizing Europe this year than we do about Sublimity, who for my money will lack race sharpness if not fitness. I know he didn't run much last season either, but SE now has quite a bit of experience under his belt and is def fighting fit, which should imo give him the edge if they are both good enough
 
Originally posted by useful@Jan 30 2008, 10:11 AM
Following the media frenzy regarding Sizing Europe's win on Sunday I have gathered my thoughts on the race.
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useful, are there any of racing's ills for which the media are not responsible?
 
Originally posted by granger@Jan 30 2008, 11:39 PM
I think Osana will set it up for one of the Irish trio.
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A lot of people thought the same about Make A Stand setting it up for everything else.
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid+Jan 31 2008, 10:24 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Desert Orchid @ Jan 31 2008, 10:24 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-granger@Jan 30 2008, 11:39 PM
I think Osana will set it up for one of the Irish trio.
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A lot of people thought the same about Make A Stand setting it up for everything else. [/b][/quote]
If were basing confidence in Osana on one almost freakish run then I don’t give him much chance.
 
Osana have 2 problems:
Will not be given a present in the start and will not receive 8 pounds from the principals.

Also Sizing Europe has improved.
 
Yes BTK beat Osana easily but Osana was not the horse he is now. Ran on ok-ish race in the County Hurdle but was well beaten. Also remember him making quiet a bad mistake at Aintree where the flat track would have suited the flat horse.
 
Originally posted by Galileo+Jan 31 2008, 09:31 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Galileo @ Jan 31 2008, 09:31 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Jan 31 2008, 10:24 AM
<!--QuoteBegin-granger
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@Jan 30 2008, 11:39 PM
I think Osana will set it up for one of the Irish trio.
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A lot of people thought the same about Make A Stand setting it up for everything else.
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If were basing confidence in Osana on one almost freakish run then I don’t give him much chance. [/b][/quote]
I can understand that reservation. I was uncomfortable with the bare form at first on account of the start Osana got. However, it wasn't as if he was coming back to them at the end. In fact, he was going away again and the others had been trying to close him down for some distance. They got to within about five lengths of him but burst themselves getting there, and the overall time of the race was fast.
Considering it was only his second run of the season, his first having been an attempt to give Sizing Europe weight under different tactics in the Greatwood, I'm less sure the performance was freakish.
 
I'm not sure how worthy the Greatwood is in terms of Champion Hurdle form. Chivalry and Trouble at Bay were too close to Osana and Sizing Europe for either of them to be considered 20-30lbs well in on the day, the forementioned pair could not have run much above their handicap mark.

The subsequent performances are those of such vastly improved horses to the point that the Greatwood is irrelevant to me.
 
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