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Aintree 2015

Lol With the way Everton have been managed by Big Blue Ken I am sure we all Desperate, maybe I should change my username to Desperate Toffee ;)

granger said:
With a name like Toffee, you will probably get to know Desperate Dan on here
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looks that way hezz

SDG also entered but moore stated he wouldn't run if the ground gets too quick
 
JamesRB said:
looks that way hezz

SDG also entered but moore stated he wouldn't run if the ground gets too quick
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Cheers James.

Champagne Fever hasn't encountered Good ground since his Cheltenham Bumper win.
Al Ferof hasn't won on it since the Supreme Novice in '11
Don Cossack clearly goes well on it, and I think Aintree will suit him much better than Cheltenham.
However i'm not sure how well AP will suit him.
Cue Card is a fresh horse, track, trip and ground will be ideal. Obviously, its been a long time since we've seen him put his best foot forward which is a big unknown.

It's a serious puzzle for me, but they're my initial thoughts. Don't have an angle......yet.
 
11/4 Jezki seems big to me. Bred to be better at this trip and Artic Fire is the sort of horse I'd want to oppose at short odds. Imo he was ridden both at Leop and Cheltenham for a place. Jezki would have beaten him comfortably but for stumbling over the last flight in the ICH.
 
Euronymous said:
11/4 Jezki seems big to me. Bred to be better at this trip and Artic Fire is the sort of horse I'd want to oppose at short odds. Imo he was ridden both at Leop and Cheltenham for a place. Jezki would have beaten him comfortably but for stumbling over the last flight in the ICH.
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Agree with all of that, the only question being will Jezki settle enough over this trip?
 
That is a worry, hoping Rock on Ruby makes it a test given that he won't have the speed these days of the front two in the market.
 
Surely Rock on Ruby is the Value at 7/2. Specialist 2m4f horse. Whereas AF & Jezki are being stepped up having spent the last 2/3 seasons at 2 Miles.
Also, ROR only beaten a head in this race last year by TNO, who if fit and lining up here would be favourite.
If Fry has him right, he takes all the beating and at the prices has to be the play imo.
 
It's an odd race in so far as I don't really want to be with any of them!
On balance, i'd probably side with Arctic Fire.
I cant see any reason why he'll turn around the champion hurdle placings.
 
i think on a flat track on good ground Vaniteux is worth an each way go. Wouldn't back a Mullins horse here at the price AF is..Mullins is dire at Aintree
 
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want to smash into Hargam now he's getting his ground but short enough on the price available so far. doubt anything much higher than evens will be available.

may chance menorah e/w in the bowl but highly likely the first day is a watching brief for me.
 
Double Handful said:
Surely Rock on Ruby is the Value at 7/2. Specialist 2m4f horse. Whereas AF & Jezki are being stepped up having spent the last 2/3 seasons at 2 Miles.
Also, ROR only beaten a head in this race last year by TNO, who if fit and lining up here would be favourite.
If Fry has him right, he takes all the beating and at the prices has to be the play imo.
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Jezki will have no concerns with the trip and i'd be surprised if he doesn't have an extra gear than ROR
 
Not convinced Arctic Fire wants this far. Will have to side with Jezki.

Am against Conti. Holywell should win if over the Gold Cup but there has to be a little doubt. Edging towards the mare on the back of that.

Will have a dabble on the outsider Val De Law in the Josses Hill race. Could outrun his price.
 
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Euronymous said:
11/4 Jezki seems big to me. Bred to be better at this trip and Artic Fire is the sort of horse I'd want to oppose at short odds. Imo he was ridden both at Leop and Cheltenham for a place. Jezki would have beaten him comfortably but for stumbling over the last flight in the ICH.
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I think it's debatable whether Jezki would have beaten Arctic Fire that day at Leopardstown. One thing seemed pretty obvious about Arctic Fire's Leopardstown runs and that was that Paul Townend looked like he only wanted to get in a race once Hurricane Fly had gone. As such he never had too hard a race and Cheltenham was the first time we saw him given the holly from the saddle.

I think Arctic Fire would have beaten Jezki regardless of the mistake. I'm not convinced 2m 4f will suit Arctic Fire as well as 2m given how well he travels and the speed he possesses, but he had Jezki comfortably beaten at Cheltenham and is very much a horse on the up, so I'd expect him to confirm the form. Jezki has been in a lot of dogfights this season and has come out the wrong side of them all, so I'd be mildly surprised if he wins tomorrow.

Rock On Ruby is the danger to the fav. He's been impressive over this trip this season and was only just touched off in the race last season, where Diaklai, in the same colours as Arctic Fire, was just behind in third. He's a really likable horse and is sure to be thereabouts. I can see Arctic Fire stalking him up the long Aintree straight, waiting to pounce. The question is what will he find over this trip? I think he should have enough to gain a first Grade 1.

Elsewhere on the card, I'd fancy Holywell to beat Silviniaco Conti. I'm surprised Ma Filleule and Ballynagour run here rather than the Melling. Both are very effective over 2m 4f, and the trip is a bit of an unknown for Ballynagour who runs well fresh. The Foxhunters looks tailor-made for On The Frine, who travels well. The trip here should suit better than at Cheltenham which is a worry for his opponents. Hargam looks a bet at around evens in the Juvenile race, while Taglitelle could gain some compensation for a somewhat unlucky run in the Coral Cup.
 
thehorsesmouth said:
Elsewhere on the card, I'd fancy Holywell to beat Silviniaco Conti. I'm surprised Ma Filleule and Ballynagour run here rather than the Melling. Both are very effective over 2m 4f, and the trip is a bit of an unknown for Ballynagour who runs well fresh.
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Holywell and SC had hard races in the Gold Cup so this could take a lot less winning than the Melling which will have some fresher animals in it.
 
Nice post thehorsesmouth.

Summed up a lot of my thoughts. I'd be a layer of Jezki and have AF and ROR running for me.
 
ROR has to be in the mix but he missed Cheltenham due to a virus in the yard. So it's taken on trust he runs to his best. It's a race I have no strong view on. Jezki if pushed but it's more tentative.
 
Manifesto Novice Chase (Thu 13:40)

This particular race seems to be won by horses with a touch of class as 12 of the last 13 places have gone to a previous Cheltenham runner. The odd one out being Deep Purple in 2009.
None of those Cheltenham runners won lto, so I am looking for those who ran a good race but didn't have too tough of a race.
We can also see that over the recent years (6) we are looking for a horse which is in the first three in the betting.
The last six winners also provided a decent recent run as they all came in the top 5 positions.

With the above taken into account we now have two potential winners, Josses Hill and Vibrato Valtat.

I would side with Josses Hill as he is a course winner, was only narrowly beaten over 20f and Mr Henderson has a good with his Novice Chases. JH ran in the same race as VV lto where they competed against the impressive Un De Sceaux, JH coming in a good 5 lengths in front of VV.

I appreciate a lot of people don't like stats, but I feel in this race the above criteria really stands out.

Josses Hill 6/4 WH
 
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EC1 said:
i think on a flat track on good ground Vaniteux is worth an each way go. Wouldn't back a Mullins horse here at the price AF is..Mullins is dire at Aintree
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Given the usual intelligence of your posts im a bit mystified by this conclusion - mullins not dire at aintree but just doesn't take it as seriously as Irish festivals and rarely brings his strongest squad. Still pretty effective when he lays one out for it - thousand stars and diakali spring to mind in this very race. Indeed he knows what it takes to challenge for this race so can't see how trainer could be used as a negative - that's just guessing at odds with laborious and fascinating nature of sectional analysis
 
thehorsesmouth said:
I'm not convinced 2m 4f will suit Arctic Fire as well as 2m given how well he travels and the speed he possesses, but he had Jezki comfortably beaten at Cheltenham and is very much a horse on the up, so I'd expect him to confirm the form.
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Which is probably why he was dropped in against Hurricane Fly. as he has been in the majority of races throughout his career. The CH was run to suit the speed horse, and all against horses that needed a proper test, such as Jezki and TNO. As with Silviniaco Conti, no surprise at all to see class come to the fore today.
 
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