Aintree 2016

Well, what I did in the Gold Cup was I laid him at 3.25 in the morning because I felt he was too short, then started to worry that in such a field size he might get into that rhythm, then put in an IR back at 4.5 to cover my Don Poli bet. This was matched when he made a mistake at 4 out I think. Was a risky move because if Cue Card had won I would have lost a lot.

As to your last point, probably, but the KG was an extreme example.
 
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CC wouldn't have won so no worries:D

i think you are putting old Don in a very small pocket tbh...he won't ever get credit he deserves really..he never has and never will

yep..the KG was a race of sitting ducks for sure..but they sat..and he didn't
 
Some horses when they change gear have a look about them that makes you go Wow!

Don Cossack has that Wow! factor but just his laid back style of running gives the impression he's not really that good.

That impression is very false, he is one helluva horse who is unlucky not to have 12 consecutive wins to his name
 
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EC1 said:
he went to Cheltenham again though even though some thought it wasn't his course..why would they not go for a KG again?..without the fall it would be a given this year..you don't not go for a race because of a fall previous year

Vautour fans won't want DC in the KG that is for sure
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EC1, I can assure you some Vautour fans have no problem whatsoever in taking-on DC again at Kempton....or in the next Gold Cup for that matter, either.

Vautour has now won unchallenged in three (that's right - three) Championship races at the Festival, and we want to find out whether he is up there amongst the true legends of the game. We don't want to see him pi*ss about in second-rate races at around two-and-a-half, hoovering-up prize-money that connections don't even need. The Ryanair is fine as a target....if you're Al Ferof, Fondmort, Thisthatandtother and others of similar ilk, but running Vautour in that race is like putting Real Madrid in against Pumpherston Juniors - eventually, you stop caring about it, because it's so one-sided.

Connections need to bite the bullet and campaign Vatour exclusively at 3m+ next season, with the Gold Cup as the absolute target - anything else is further poof-outery. If he doesn't stay - then fu*ck it - at least they tried. But not to try in the first place, would be a desperate way to campaign a horse of his undoubted ability.
 
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Grasshopper said:
EC1, I can assure you some Vautour fans have no problem whatsoever in taking-on DC again at Kempton....or in the next Gold Cup for that matter, either.

Vautour has now won unchallenged in three (that's right - three) Championship races at the Festival, and we want to find out whether he is up there amongst the true legends of the game. We don't want to see him pi*ss about in second-rate races at around two-and-a-half, hoovering-up prize-money that connections don't even need. The Ryanair is fine as a target....if you're Al Ferof, Fondmort, Thisthatandtother and others of similar ilk, but running Vautour in that race is like putting Real Madrid in against Pumpherston Juniors - eventually, you stop caring about it, because it's so one-sided.

Connections need to bite the bullet and campaign Vatour exclusively at 3m+ next season, with the Gold Cup as the absolute target - anything else is further poof-outery. If he doesn't stay - then fu*ck it - at least they tried. But not to try in the first place, would be a desperate way to campaign a horse of his undoubted ability.
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yes 3 races..at shorter than 3m2.5f...and won them in style in the same way you would expect a horse of his level to win..so why move him up when he has crawled home in a KG to a level where a horse like DC will beat him and even the stable thought a lesser rated horse than DC was their best option at that trip in Djakadam..a big tell there.

No one expected Sprinter Sacre to be stepped up...or such as Thistlecrack to be stepped down..they are brilliant horses at their trip. I personally don't want to see the elastic stretched..same as i didn't with 100's of other horses that showed brilliance when their ideal trip is known.

If they were thinking of 3m2f next year they wouldn't be running at less at aintree imo..yet another tell. If he were crying out for a trip..now is the time to find out..then map out next season based on it..but no..they going shorter at Aintree

You are going to be disappointed imo if you think the longer route is on the cards imo. They can literally mop up big prizes at shorter with Vautour..no risk..and as i am always being told..£ rules with these decisions..
 
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Demonstrating brilliance in a Ryanair at 2m5f is not the same thing as demonstrating it at 3m in a King George or 3m2f in a Gold Cup. That is undeniable fact.

You have him down as a non-stayer, based on your pace analysis of the King George. That's your opinion, and you're entitled to hold it. But not only do you write Vautour off far too hastily, you also seem to express a preference for him "mopping-up" in two-bit races, than actually having the question about his stamina answered conclusively (it hasn't been, imo, despite what your clock tells you). I think that it is a shame that you would prefer not only that the Ryanair be a wholly uncompetitive affair, but also the Gold Cup being less of a race for Vautour's absence.

For my money, anyone advocating keeping Vautour at two-and-half, isn't really interested in seeing the best go head-to-head. They would be as well sticking to Flat racing. ;)

:cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
Demonstrating brilliance in a Ryanair at 2m5f is not the same thing as demonstrating it at 3m in a King George or 3m2f in a Gold Cup. That is undeniable fact.

You have him down as a non-stayer, based on your pace analysis of the King George. That's your opinion, and you're entitled to hold it. But not only do you write Vautour off far too hastily, you also seem to express a preference for him "mopping-up" in two-bit races, than actually having the question about his stamina answered conclusively (it hasn't been, imo, despite what your clock tells you). I think that it is a shame that you would prefer not only that the Ryanair be a wholly uncompetitive affair, but also the Gold Cup being less of a race for Vautour's absence.

For my money, anyone advocating keeping Vautour at two-and-half, isn't really interested in seeing the best go head-to-head. They would be as well sticking to Flat racing. ;)

:cool:
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advocating to keep a horse to its optimum trip is what racing is all about...what shall we do? ..stick horses like Sprinter Sacre at 3 miles..just to see if he stays

i'm a realist..i just go on evidence of what i see ,,i don't see brilliant horses regularly put at trips that are not going to show best as being anything but plain daft tbh once you see what they do at their optimum trip. The track performance tells me he isn't a better horse at further..and what fuels this forum..trainer and jockey talk..they don't think he is as good at further either..that usually seals it on here.

You are talking as if they haven't tried him at 3 miles..they have,,and he ran a figure below what his best is..as good as CC is..Vautour is a better horse on the day..at the right trip.

wanting good horses running at wrong trip just seems to me a waste of energy. I just enjoy watching the best horses produce their best..Vautour does that at shy of the GC trip..the GC isn't the be all and end all in NH racing imo..in fact in the last 10 years my enjoyment of NH racing has been watching other races bar the GC

I don't agree that the ryanair is a poor race..if it were that poor this year then Vautour would have been 1/3 to win it.

As far as mopping up goes..the argument i usually get about horses on here is the trainer and £ view..and get told thats what rules the game..well as far as £ goes..Vautour will make more £ at less than 3m2.5f..so the trainer will want that..so which way will they go with this one?

I don't make the rules as to where they run him..but up to press..i've nailed where they will run him..even after being told for months he won't go ryanair..where did he go?

neither of us knows for sure what will happen..but at the moment..it ain't GC route
 
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If there hadn't been negative rumours about his well-being, Vautour would have been a 1/4 shot. He certainly won like one. :p

You make far too many assumptions I reckon, EC1.

One, that Vautour doesn't get the trip (fair enough - your view), and two, that connections don't think he gets the trip either. There is no evidence to suggest that the latter is the case; only what you have extrapolated from them running in the Ryanair, rather than the Gold Cup. This position flies in the face of comments from connections, both before and after the decision was made to run in the Ryanair. According to connections, they do think he stays - they just don't know for certain - and that uncertainty, coupled with worries about his well-being (it's not the first time he has disappointed in his work on the lead-up to Cheltenham), meant they chose the easier assignment. That's my view anyway.

Now, some might say that anything Mullins says should be wholly-ignored - and I might agree with them! - but I can't have it that they are now settled at the intermediate trip with this horse, and havedismissed all thoughts of running over further. For their sanity, they will surely want to find out one way or the other.

You dismiss the KG run as being as good as Vautour is at the trip; preferring the sole evidence of the clock, whilst ignoring all the other mitigating factors which applied (Vautour's relative inexperience, his jumping out to the right, and him making it for the last 2-miles, being the principals). For me, these factors count for something, and yet he still ran a horse of Cue Card's undoubted ability, to a head. Everything about Vautour's profile suggests he is well worth another outing at that trip, after which connections can take it from there. If he stays, great, if he doesn't, I'll concede defeat and admit that he needs to be dropped back in trip (preferably all the way to 2m).

But to swerve the option of a campaign over 3m+ entirely, in favour of dominating poorer opponents over the intermediate trip, would - as I said earlier - be the ultimate in poofing-out, and would potentially rob the horse of his place amongst the greats. In the grand scheme of things, we all know that no-one gives a toss about Ryanair winners, in comparison to Champion Chasers and Gold Cup winners.

PS. Sprinter Sacre would have been aimed at the King George in 2013, if he hadn't had an interrupted prep. It's the only reason he ran in the Desert Orchid instead (during which his heart issue came to light). :p

PPS. I'm well aware that I've been somewhat of a one-trick-pony when it comes to Vautour, but I can't shake the feeling that this horse is absolutely the real deal, and can go to the very top of the game. Winning Ryanair's hard-held is not the way to achieve that aim, imo.
 
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I have to stick to the view of dilution Grass..stretching him..doesn't mean he can't win at further..that always depends on the oppo obviously..every horse stays..its to what level. Imo he won't beat the best at 3m+ if that is what he meets at that trip

we won't agree on this..maybe they should try him if there is a doubt..but you know and i know...$ rules in this game..i don't agree with it being so..but it does.
 
I don't think that running exclusively at 3m+ is necessarily the way to go in a GC preparation as Don Cossack showed this season. Neither do I think that preparing for the GC rules him out of opting for the Ryanair at the last minute again. It's fairly obvious that he will be trained for the GC but, at the moment, they will be completely open-minded about which races he goes for in that preparation.
 
Connected to this £ thing..on WHRadio a few weeks ago one of them was deriding people who gave twiston stick for keep trying to win the CH with TNO...the argument was..well look at how much money TNO has won

my answer to that is..yes he has won a lot of money at 2 miles...but its a bit like having a horse capable of winning x £ at one trip...and winning less at another..even though the less looks a lot of money..its still not the maximum the horse could have won
 
archie said:
I don't think that running exclusively at 3m+ is necessarily the way to go in a GC preparation as Don Cossack showed this season. Neither do I think that preparing for the GC rules him out of opting for the Ryanair at the last minute again. It's fairly obvious that he will be trained for the GC but, at the moment, they will be completely open-minded about which races he goes for in that preparation.
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if its obvious..why aren't they starting at Aintree at 3m+ though?

simple answer is..guaranteed £ at shorter

same as it was at Cheltenham...do you want two G1's or 1?

If Vautour is as good at further and they know it..no way would they have pulled him for a lesser horse..so they clearly think Djakadam is the better GC prsopect...and yet Vautour is a better horse..the answer is obvious to me.
 
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and when it comes to Cheltenham next year..and he has the choice of sending two to the GC..he will make the same choice as this year..2 G1's or 1

if he does go GC route..Vautour will be viewed as the sub..whatever else he has will be his main choice..if that one is working well..he will go for the lesser horse on ratings and pick the one he thinks is better rated at the trip

thats what is the main thing..which horse is capable of the best performance at the trip..this year it was Djakadam..how far behind V is he just on bare ratings?..but they still thought he was the best option at 3m2f. The tell is there plain to see.

can you imagine having a champion and standing him down for a lesser?..you would only do that if you had large doubts about what level V can produce at further
 
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The one factor no one is mentioning here is that many horses increase stamina with age. he might not be right for it now but this time next year?
 
Mullins doesn't have a horse in his yard that is capable of winning the GC - other than (potentially) Vautour.

Djakadam and Don Poli have been proven to be not good enough to win the race, and there's little chance of Douvan heading for anything other than the Queen Mother - particularly after UDS true-level was exposed in this year's race.

You keep going on about "best trip". The jury surely has to be out on that, as regards Vautour, because his one run at 3m was right out of the top-drawer, despite several things being against him. I know you don't think he can 'stretch' to 3m+, based on a combo of your time-analysis, and him being so dominant at 2m5f, but surely even you can see that there is a danger in using a single run at a 'staying trip', as conclusive evidence of a lack of stamina?

Re the doubts, these were clearly expressed as being related to the way in which Vautour worked pre-Festival - stamina was never mentioned as a reason for swerving the Gold Cup.
 
clivex said:
The one factor no one is mentioning here is that many horses increase stamina with age. he might not be right for it now but this time next year?
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It's a valid point. Look no further than Don Cossack and Cue Card for evidence of that.
 
EC1 said:
and when it comes to Cheltenham next year..and he has the choice of sending two to the GC..he will make the same choice as this year..2 G1's or 1
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Wow. You know which race WPM will run his horses in a year away. I struggle to know a couple of days before the race [emoji4]
 
Different code but horses on the flat regularly contest the Guineas when perceived wisdom says they won't stay then revert to sprinting and horses also contest the Derby after performing well in the Guineas when perceived wisdom says they won't stay, then return to miling if they don't stay.

I don't believe that they've proven conclusively that Vautour doesn't stay (perhaps a la Hawk Wing in the Derby) and should have another bash at 3m+ next season. I wouldn't make the Gold Cup an absolute target at this stage though - that would depend on how he performs.
 
Can't compare with flat because they are not maturing over enough seasons. The other way of looking at this is how many top class chasers have progressively stepped up in trip successfully (or even suddenly like edredon bleu) and how many have been dropped in trip?

I suppose some anorak will will come out with an example of the latter but the natural course is theformer

i wouldn't have backed vautour this year but that's only this year . Was always in my mind that he could step up.
 
viking said:
Wow. You know which race WPM will run his horses in a year away. I struggle to know a couple of days before the race [emoji4]
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i knew the Ryanair was the race for him the about 3 hours after he won the JLT..last 4f time told you he was speed.,,3m 2f+ types don't run that quick

Its funny..because since it was announced that he would go for the ryanair..i have heard and read many pundits views..and 90%+ of them thought it was the right decision..only on here was it the other way round.

I like being the only one on here that thinks it was the right decision:)
 
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