Aintree 2016

Tanlic said:
Unfortunately Dan with owners (Having been one myself) many are not like you. Their horse hacks up in a handicap hurdle at Sedgefield and the first words that come out their mouths is "Cheltenham"

My trainer/friend from way back could say anything to me and thought nothing of telling me "You are just the owner shut up I'll tell you where the horse is running" Fooking Cheltenham are you on drugs?

If owner would accept, as you say, that their Jockey and in many cases to a lesser degree their trainers are the best judges of what the horses are capable of they would be a lot more successful.

Mr Ricci would be a lot more popular if he didn't talk to the media so much and when he does he should coin the phrase "I'll leave that up to Willie"
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Agree Tanlic, particularly with your last point re Ricci. I'm not saying owners have to religiously hang off the trainer and jockeys words. Doesn't hurt anyone to dream a little etc but just be realistic and if your horse is outstayed over an easy 3m at Kempton that the extra at Cheltenham was always going to be questionable.

If they are still harbouring hopes then they should send him to the bowl. If he sees it out well they can weigh up Punchestown but if he has a hard race they can just plan for next season at the optimum trip. I suspect he'll end up in the Melling and that will say it all.
 
EC1 said:
yes 3 races..at shorter than 3m2.5f...and won them in style in the same way you would expect a horse of his level to win..so why move him up when he has crawled home in a KG to a level where a horse like DC will beat him and even the stable thought a lesser rated horse than DC was their best option at that trip in Djakadam..a big tell there.

No one expected Sprinter Sacre to be stepped up...or such as Thistlecrack to be stepped down..they are brilliant horses at their trip. I personally don't want to see the elastic stretched..same as i didn't with 100's of other horses that showed brilliance when their ideal trip is known.

If they were thinking of 3m2f next year they wouldn't be running at less at aintree imo..yet another tell. If he were crying out for a trip..now is the time to find out..then map out next season based on it..but no..they going shorter at Aintree

You are going to be disappointed imo if you think the longer route is on the cards imo. They can literally mop up big prizes at shorter with Vautour..no risk..and as i am always being told..£ rules with these decisions..
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Sprinter Sacre won the Melling - in a canter from Cue Card the year that the latter had bolted up in the Ryanair . So he was stepped up once to 2m 4f .
 
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The forecast has bits of rain around during the week but predominantly dry days on Thursday and Friday and the COTC made it perfectly clear in today's RP that they would water were it to start drying out on those days.

Unsurprisingly Good to Soft is definitely the fastest it's going to be (officially)
 
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Djakadam, Cue Card and Don Poli all declared for the Bowl. Can't say I'm happy to see Djakadam in the line-up but I have a sneaky he won't like the track. Poli a good each way bet.
 
With Djakadam and Don Poli likeky to pick up good money in the Bowl, Annie and Nicholls Canyon likewise in the Aintree Hurdle, and Vautour and Douvan nailed on if they stand up, Paul Nicholls will surely have to win the National in order to retain the trainer's title.
 
Silviniaco Conti will have to be backed.

Having a winning docket might prevent me vomiting blood at the sight of him punching the air with a big red head and telling everyone "I told you so".
 
hezz said:
Silviniaco Conti will have to be backed.

Having a winning docket might prevent me vomiting blood at the sight of him punching the air with a big red head and telling everyone "I told you so".
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He'll be doing so, but it will be Wonderful Charm, not Conti that does the business for him.
 
I know PN says he expects a big run from him and I will back him EW along with 2 others but I wonder will he turn up on Saturday? Twice he was going to run him and decided against it which is not an ideal prep.

He says he runs best fresh but there's not been too much evidence of that lately but he;s jocked up so fingers crossed
 
I think Just A Par will do best of the Nicholls runners but can't see him winning it. I can't see further than Many Clouds myself although I think Morning Assembly may exceed expectations.

Many Clouds only 1lb more than last year although 5lbs higher in the ratings, won well enough last year and his win at Kelso last month proved he's happy in himself I thought
 
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Many Clouds and Morning Assembly for me. Suspect O'Faolain's Boy may outrun his odds but he's just as likely to run a stinker
 
I've been merrily chipping away at the 50/1 and 66/1 on Buywise since January
He wont win but if he can brush his jumping up I'm very confident he can stay well to fight for 4th/5th.
 
I am also of the view that Silviniaco won't get home. Admirable horse but an attritional battle at a marathon distance isn't going to suit him.
 
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I'm in too. 20/1 just too big to ignore and has a shout on Hennessy form anyway (although others better if over GC exertions)


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Granger and I discussed this on Twitter yesterday, it's crazy that bookies aren't offering odds about Saphir for the Gold Cup next year.
 
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