Aintree 2018

Just thought I'd post a couple of my interests for Aintree.

First of all one Grass flagged up for the Byrne plate Kings socks is down to run in the Red Rum Chase on day one. He holds 3 entries at the meeting one in a handicap hurdle where his mark is a few pounds higher so I'd think that a strange move tbh seen as he jumped his fences o.k at the festival. Another entry in the Melling Chase which again would be a strange move when the horse is rated 140. So I've took a bit of a chance and had quite a heavy investment on him for the Red rum Chase literally on a prayer that he turns up. Currently 10/1 with 365 and I think that's massive as if lining up I can't really see that he won't go off favourite. He was absolutely tanking turning in at Cheltenham and just didn't seem to get home over 2m5f in heavy ground. Looking at his form in France his wins actually came over shorter trips so I think the drop back here would suit. The only concern I'd have is that Cheltenham may have left its mark but that would be a general concern about anything from that meet. The fact it was probably his first proper run of the campaign ( his other start merely a sighter) I'm hopeful he's going to be fresh enough to hold his form. Quite a lot of the others at the front end of the market are those that came from the Grand Annual. I'm half thinking Bar Le prezien who won there aren't many I'd be scared of and I have a feeling that with Altior out of the Melling that Nicholls may fancy switching him to that race providing the ground isn't too soft here. Even if turning up he'd have a hard job on his hands conceding 17lb to the selection. The Grand annual fell apart a bit as a race Gino trail did brilliantly off the front end all things considered but he'd be one tough horse if after that mighty effort he could do it from the front here. If Kings socks turns up and stands up he must go very close. I won't lie I have quite a hefty investment in him and have included him in a fair few multiples so if he doesn't turn up I might need his socks to dry my eyes :lol:

In the Topham I'm going to be prepared to take a chance on a horse that before the season kicked off I'd have thought had reached his limit. Art Mauresque igenerally a 20/1 shot has impressed me no end in his last 2 starts. He's been involved in 2 very rapid races around Kempton. The first he went down to Waiting Patiently which doesn't look at all bad now considering the terms he was on. The second in what used to be the Racing Post Chase. In that race they have gone far too quick off the front end judging by the fact the first and second came from a mile back. Art Maresque who was on the pace throughout and even came through to press it even further turning for home had most of his rivals in trouble 2 out eventually faded but not all that badly finishing a respectable 4th. I think dropping back in trip here should suit and he'll certainly be tough to beat. I watched his jumping when behind Waiting Patiently and for 90% of the race he was putting up the finest round of jumping you'd see albeit sometimes going a little to the left on one occasion he stood off one a mile and on another he just put in one that was a bit close for comfort so it may be one where you hold your breath at every flight tbh. Handicap wise though I think he has a win in him and he's a fair price to complete. Dropping back in trip and going back left handed will both be positive I think and if he can jump anything like he did around Kempton over Christmas he'll be tough to beat I think.

I haven't had a single wager as I think its possible we might see a better price or similar on the day with no Ante-post risk and possibly better place terms but I couldn't resist throwing him in a couple of multi's early.

In the Melling I really want to oppose the front 2 in the market Min and Politilogue but until the final decs I'm not sure what with but If Le prezien does switch here I've already struck a smaller bet at a big price so I may leave it at that.

That's my lot so far I'll probably wait until the day as this isn't really a meeting for the Ante-post attack. Hopefully Kings socks turns up and gets me off to a flyer.
 
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Would have loved Douvan to have run in the Melling but wpm says he's going for the BS Champion Chase

That 7/4 looks very tempting as Min wont run and Great Field would need to betting 2 stone plus to get near him

Min could find life difficult in the Melling..Politilogue is probably a better horse at 2m4f and if Top Notch were to bounce back I reckon he'd beat them both
 
Tanlic said:
Min could find life difficult in the Melling..Politilogue is probably a better horse at 2m4f
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Which bit of Politologue's form is it that you think makes him a better horse at 2m4f. His RPR's at both distances are as follows:

2m: 160, 167, 167, 167, 167, 161
2m4f: 149, 153, 158, 148, 154
 
Diakali is a big price at 50/1 (Victor) in the Aintree Hurdle.

Was only beaten 1/4L by TNO in this a few years back, and is lightly-raced after a series of setbacks since. He will be fresh going into this, against horses who - in the main - had hard enough races at Cheltenham, and where none of the principles is in what you'd call stellar-form. Diakali was a decent horse at one time, and if he does retain his ability, Moore is just the type of trainer to extract it from him. I think he is a great each-way price.

Edit: Note that Diakali also holds the Alder Hay handicap hurdle entry, though if he's ready to win that off top-weight, he is probably also ready to run for a hundred-grand more in the Grade 1.
 
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simmo said:
Which bit of Politologue's form is it that you think makes him a better horse at 2m4f. His RPR's at both distances are as follows:

2m: 160, 167, 167, 167, 167, 161
2m4f: 149, 153, 158, 148, 154
Click to expand...
He's always looked like a keen type that is best at the minimum trip to me.

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Coole Cody worth an each-way interest at 25/1 in the Stayers Hurdle. Race is wide-open, and those at the front-end of the market, are vulnerable to an improver.
 
Grasshopper said:
Diakali is a big price at 50/1 (Victor) in the Aintree Hurdle.

Was only beaten 1/4L by TNO in this a few years back, and is lightly-raced after a series of setbacks since. He will be fresh going into this, against horses who - in the main - had hard enough races at Cheltenham, and where none of the principles is in what you'd call stellar-form. Diakali was a decent horse at one time, and if he does retain his ability, Moore is just the type of trainer to extract it from him. I think he is a great each-way price.

Edit: Note that Diakali also holds the Alder Hay handicap hurdle entry, though if he's ready to win that off top-weight, he is probably also ready to run for a hundred-grand more in the Grade 1.
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Ever my cliff horse!
 
I've took a small bet on Cyrus Darius just for interest obviously stacks to find with the front lot but looked better than ever when winning the Morebattle again. Will relish the trip and softening conditons and won a grade 2 novices at the track by 10 lengths. Agree regards grass's thoughts about some of them having tough races/seasons and Cyrus comes here fairly fresh. Although he's 9 he's had 7 hurdle starts and won 5 of them so at the prices he gives me a bit of an interest in a dull race.
 
Paul Kealy

GoingStick reading lower at Aintree now than for Becher day in December when official going was heavy. Considerably lower on Mildmay (4.0 compared to 5.0). National 3.7 (was 4.0 for Becher)
 
simmo said:
Which bit of Politologue's form is it that you think makes him a better horse at 2m4f. His RPR's at both distances are as follows:

2m: 160, 167, 167, 167, 167, 161
2m4f: 149, 153, 158, 148, 154
Click to expand...


Those ratings are crap..


The handicapper reckons Altior ran to a 175 and Politilogue ran to a 161 but was beaten 23 lengths..if 1 lb is 1 length and you agree with Altior's rating then Polit ran to what?

I do believe he has improved but it's got very little to do with the trip and he'll prove that this week if he runs the horse


Nicholls will run him and then he's tell us 2m4f is his best trip
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Paul Kealy

GoingStick reading lower at Aintree now than for Becher day in December when official going was heavy. Considerably lower on Mildmay (4.0 compared to 5.0). National 3.7 (was 4.0 for Becher)
Click to expand...

Where's he had those readings from DG ? That are not the ones that i saw this morning. It was 5.0 on the national course but I did smell a rat when I'd read 6.2 on the Mildmay as there was literally no chance of that with the rain they've had.


Edit- ok found them see they've all been updated. That is absolutely desperate ground. Oh dear.
 
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