Aintree Day 1

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
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Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
Big Buck's, Grand Crus, Khyber Kim, Karabak and Carlito Brigante in the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle.

Zaynar, Grandouet, Empire Levant in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle.

Baby Run, Turko, My Way de Solzen, Moncadou and Herons Well in the Foxhunter

A host of the ususal suspects in the Red Rum Handicap Chase (2miles). Interesting to see Tchico Polos and Woolcombe Folly get the handicap entry.

The Manifesto Novices' Chase (2m4f) could see Ghizao, Mr Cracker, Mr Gardner, Royal Charm, Medermit and Roi du Mee.

And there are 69 horses in the 2m4f handicap hurdle.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?crs_id=32&r_date=2011-04-07
 
BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle
Paddy Power: 4-7 Big Buck's, 7-2 Grands Crus, 8 Carlito Brigante, 16 Karabak, Khyber Kim, Sentry Duty, 25 Knockara Beau, 66 Possol, Won In The Dark, 100 Gwanako, 200 Markington

A few very interesting entries there. Good to see the big two clash again.

Meanwhile, in the Totesport Bowl, Denman seems to have a relatively straightforward task, with Nacarat and Deep Purple the next closest rating wise, and the heretofore unfulfilled promise of Punchestowns the other major concern. That said, Carole's Legacy is probably a decent enough yardstick if we get one of those funny end of season races with the big guns misfiring.

Boyles and Will Hill bet (best prices shown):

Denman Evs, Nacarat 11/2, Punchestowns 11/2, Deep Purple 8/1, Caroles Legacy 12/1 and Follow the Plan 40/1.
 
Gearoid said:
Denman and biggest lay of all time comes to mind.
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We should get even-money shots like this every day. Something like a stone to 20lb clear of the others and in sparkling form. I'll be taking evens all day. He has a straightforward task.
 
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At Punchestown he was 20lb clear of his opponents; still got stuffed.
At the Aon last year he was 30lb clear of his opponents' still unseated when under pressure in the straight.
In this race two years ago, he had 10lb in hand, and he fell when not looking like he was 10lb superior to Madison du Berlais and Exotic Dancer.

He had a very hard race at Cheltenham.

I don't believe he is as good as he was, as I believe the Cheltenham race wasn't that great.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
At Punchestown he was 20lb clear of his opponents; still got stuffed.
At the Aon last year he was 30lb clear of his opponents' still unseated when under pressure in the straight.
In this race two years ago, he had 10lb in hand, and he fell when not looking like he was 10lb superior to Madison du Berlais and Exotic Dancer.

He had a very hard race at Cheltenham.

I don't believe he is as good as he was, as I believe the Cheltenham race wasn't that great.
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...so you won't be backing him then? In that eventuality you will be missing a straightforward bread-and-butter value chance. He is very far from the biggest lay of all-time that has been suggested. This is a simple opportunity for another Grade 1. There aren't too many horses that have simple opportunities in such races. He doesn't have to be as good as he was to win this comfortably.
 
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I don't think he is the biggest lay of all time, Steve.

I won't be backing him. I won't be laying him. I warned you to keep your money in your pocket at Cheltenham, and I am doing so again. He is a good horse, but this isn't his track.

If I back anything, it will probably be Carole's Legacy, although I would hope for more than 12 to 1.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I warned you to keep your money in your pocket at Cheltenham, and I am doing so again. He is a good horse, but this isn't his track.

If I back anything, it will probably be Carole's Legacy, although I would hope for more than 12 to 1.
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That's your choice. Had I taken your advice at Cheltenham I would have lost. I backed Denman each-way at 12/1 and 8/1 and for a place (as advised) on the day. I won money on Denman and covered on Long Run (and IC).

On Thursday he hasn't got much to beat. If you are ever going to back him it has to be in this at even money or better.

The Gold Cup couldn't have been a bad one. Long Run broke the course record.
 
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Steve - I understand why you love Denman so much, but you appear to just relentlessly suggest he’ll hack up in every race he competes in.

Suggesting he’s not good value at evens isn’t especially controversial. Some of us (myself included) think that he has a chance of winning which is less than 50%. He has disappointed here before, and at Punchestown, and he had a hard race at Cheltenham. His record post-Gold Cup just isn’t great, despite him being the ‘best’ horse on official ratings. If the best horse on official ratings won every time, it wouldn’t be much of a sport. I can see him disappointing again. Sorry – that’s just my opinion.

You appear to take it as a personal slight every time anyone suggests Denman won’t win. How many races has he won in the last two seasons?

I’m not disputing he’s a great horse. He’s in the top three I’ve ever seen. But he still might lose at Aintree.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Exciting, yes.
Emotional, yes.
Great, yes.
180+ by the winner? Not for me. What A Friend doesn't rock my boat.
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Denman still ran to 170+ despite not having underfoot conditions to his liking. Not quite at his peak no, but to say the Gold Cup wasn't all that is very harsh.
 
BennyB said:
Steve - I understand why you love Denman so much, but you appear to just relentlessly suggest he’ll hack up in every race he competes in.

Suggesting he’s not good value at evens isn’t especially controversial. Some of us (myself included) think that he has a chance of winning which is less than 50%. He has disappointed here before, and at Punchestown, and he had a hard race at Cheltenham. His record post-Gold Cup just isn’t great, despite him being the ‘best’ horse on official ratings. If the best horse on official ratings won every time, it wouldn’t be much of a sport. I can see him disappointing again. Sorry – that’s just my opinion.

You appear to take it as a personal slight every time anyone suggests Denman won’t win. How many races has he won in the last two seasons?

I’m not disputing he’s a great horse. He’s in the top three I’ve ever seen. But he still might lose at Aintree.
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But you see I don’t say that he will hack up in every race. I thought he was the value bet in the Gold Cup at 12s and that he would be “placed” and was rooting for him to win. But I did not suggest he would hack up. Likewise in the Hennessy I said he had a monumental task to win it, not that he would hack up.
Here (at level weights against this opposition) I am saying that even money or better is great value. But this time I do think he’ll hack up. I’m furthermore not taking anything personally just looking at the race as dispassionately as possible. If he is even money I see him as an odds-on shot at an irresistible price.

If he is one of the three best you have ever seen how can he fail to win off level weights at Aintree against this opposition?... Or are the other two running in the same race ;-)
 
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The only jolly I wouldn't be keen to oppose is Big Buck's.

As BennyB said, horses who have hard races at the Festival often disappoint at Aintree - and by that, I mean fail to run up to anywhere near their Festival mark - and when they are 11yo Even-money shots who are hard to win with, then I have to be against them.

The only thing that makes me hesitate, is the paucity of the opposition to Denman. Even if he ran a stone below his best, he could still win. But that isn't quite enough for me. The track is against him and this won't be sufficient a stamina test for him, imo. He won't be able to get others off the bridle as quickly (if at all, really) round the Mildmay course in quick ground, as he would over further in soft-ground on a galloping track, and he might be vulnerable to a turn of foot.

There are too many things which point to him not running up to form, imo, and at the price, I have to be a layer - and a reasonably confident one at that. I'll probably take him on in the place market too.
 
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The key thing is that Madison was almost a 170 animal in 2009 and gave the tank a real race. None of Thursday's opponents are that good. That said if I was a short price man I'd sooner take 11/8 on Peddler's Cross.
 
Denman ran a lot better than I was expecting in the Gold Cup and he also ran to a very decent level in the Hennessy. His poor showing at Punchestown last year might have been to do with running right handed, because his other seriously below par run of recent seasons was at Kempton.

Take out those two runs and he still looks very formidable, especially when compared with his rivals on Thursday.
 
Grey said:
Denman ran a lot better than I was expecting in the Gold Cup and he also ran to a very decent level in the Hennessy. His poor showing at Punchestown last year might have been to do with running right handed, because his other seriously below par run of recent seasons was at Kempton.

Take out those two runs and he still looks very formidable, especially when compared with his rivals on Thursday.
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Just my own opinion..I think Denman must have ben trained specifically with the Gold Cup in mind- ran a huge race. Can he repeat the effort with 3 odd weeks between races:confused::confused: Not so sure.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Joe Cullen holds the course record on the bumper course.

Joshua Tree holds the juvenile course record at Ascot over a mile.

Laddies Poker Two has run faster over 6f than any other horse at Ascot.
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What's that got to do with Long Run's time? You can't use Ascot as an example Bully... It's hardly a reliable and wide enough sample... Bumpers are hardly worth putting up either... You've not mentioned a race with jumps in either.

I thought this years Gold Cup was a classic with some great horses involved.
 
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