Aintree Day 1

I was putting up an example to show that a great time does not necessarily equal a great race.

I thought it was a great race to watch, and obviously high class form. I just don't think it was good enough to put Long Run as high as (say) Timeform have him in the pantheon of greats. If we were to use time as the primary tool of rating horses, wouldn't Arkle be rated a lot lower?

Here are some jumps examples. Best over 3m chase course at Newbury? Red Devil Robert. Best over the Tingle Creek course and distance? Dempsey.
 
And was Long Run's time really that great? He ran the C&D 7.5 seconds faster than the winner of the Foxhunter's, Zemsky.

Compare this to the time difference between Foxhunters and Gold Cup winners over the past 10 years, and you will see that the relative time (if you use the Foxhunter's as a standard) wasn't so hot.

Long Run 7.5 seconds (Zemsky)
Imperial Commander 12.1 seconds (Baby Run) But it was raining, so not the best example
Kauto Star II 9.4 seconds (Cappa Bleu)
Denman 13.4 seconds (Amicelli)
Kauto Star I 6.1 seconds (Drombeag)
War of Attrition 11 seconds (Whyso Mayo)
Kicking King 7.4 seconds (Sleeping Night)
Best Mate III 14.5 seconds (Earthmover)
Best Mate II 10.5 seconds (Kingscliff)
Best Mate I 11.5 seconds (Last Option)

Average superiority - 10.3 seconds.

Now I know the issues you may have with using the Foxhunter's as standard, but they are not as pronounced as the issues of just looking at the bare time. We are fortunate to have a conditions race run within 40 mins over C&D in this instance.

Long Run's run was obviously high class form. Gold Cups always are (with the exception of War of Attrition, but that is a different point).

But just because it was an exciting race, doesn't mean it should get a stratospheric record.
 
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Surely something has to go quite wrong for Denman not to win? Nacarat is a high 150s horse and Punchestowns seems similar (at best).

What is the probability of Denman failing to post a 160 (or higher) rating(all that is needed)? 3/1?
 
Yeah but Bully as a six year old (First since Mill House) he comfortably beat the two best staying chasers of the last ten years in a very fast time with an amateur on his back who couldn't claim. If that is not a very good performance which warrants a rating in the 180's I don't know what does... You are a hard man to please.
 
Indeed. All he has to do is to reproduce anything remotely close to his usual standard. If we assume he'll run half a stone worse than normal and then knock off the first number you thought of, he still wins.
 
My starting point for the race is that Punchestowns can't be placed.I believe Aintree to be a meeting for potential shocks but odds against on Denman are tempting.
 
Aragorn said:
Yeah but Bully as a six year old (First since Mill House) he comfortably beat the two best staying chasers of the last ten years in a very fast time with an amateur on his back who couldn't claim. If that is not a very good performance which warrants a rating in the 180's I don't know what does... You are a hard man to please.
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I found the race very pleasing.

I just didn't find What a Friend = 171 or whatever these ratings being thrown around make him.

Long Run may be capable of 182 or whatever ludicrous rating Timeform gave him, but he is not going to prove it running against 11yos and little else at Cheltenham while he belts a few fences.

He'll genuinely run into the 180s one day, most probably at Kempton or Aintree.
 
Going eases further...

...further rain overnight now means that the National course is described as soft, good to soft in places, while the Mildmay and Hurdle course is good to soft, soft in places.

Speaking on Wednesday morning, clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said: "We had four millimetres overnight which has just eased the ground a bit.

"I'm very happy with the ground, we didn't have much of a drying day yesterday, and the rain was perhaps more than we expected but it's set to be a dry and cloudy day with sunny spells today with temperatures getting up to 17C."


Thursday's forecast is expected to be similar, while Friday is cooler with temperatures down to 12C. However Saturday is forecast to be a dry and sunny day, with temperatures up to 18C.
 
I'm always fearful of horses that have had hard races at the Festival going on to run at Aintree, not helped by the fact that I find the fences on the park course terrifying. I hope PN isn't using Denman to secure his Trainers championship? I suppose I've lost too many favourites at the meeting over the years. I watch the meeting with a mixture of sheer exhilaration and fear [I'm a wreck already!]. Good job I'm not an owner, trainer, jockey or horse!
 
Regardless of the result, with what we know now, 5/4 is one of the craziest prices of the season, especially with the ground softening.
 
Hamm said:
Regardless of the result, with what we know now, 5/4 is one of the craziest prices of the season, especially with the ground softening.
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...that's if you can get it to any size. I'd expect him to be sent off at odds on. Denman has come out of the Gold Cup in sparkling form. The going will suit and if anything they think Cheltenham has brought him on. It is when Denman is not fully fit that he struggles (he's like a heavyweight boxer in this respect), not when he's thriving. He takes racing very well, much better than most.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
I found the race very pleasing.

I just didn't find What a Friend = 171 or whatever these ratings being thrown around make him.

Long Run may be capable of 182 or whatever ludicrous rating Timeform gave him, but he is not going to prove it running against 11yos and little else at Cheltenham while he belts a few fences.

He'll genuinely run into the 180s one day, most probably at Kempton or Aintree.
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What if What a Friend wins the national?!!! :blink:

You can't forget that What a Friend was a dual grade 1 winner over fences who was wearing blinkers for the first time. If he didn't run to 171 to say he ran to high 160's at least is not really a leap of faith.

Having said all of that....... I think Denman will get turned over. By who I don't know but I don't think he'll win...
 
SteveM said:
...that's if you can get it to any size. I'd expect him to be sent off at odds on. Denman has come out of the Gold Cup in sparkling form. The going will suit and if anything they think Cheltenham has brought him on. It is when Denman is not fully fit that he struggles (he's like a heavyweight boxer in this respect), not when he's thriving. He takes racing very well, much better than most.
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Indefatigable-tastic. :D
 
Aragorn said:
What if What a Friend wins the national?!!! :blink:

You can't forget that What a Friend was a dual grade 1 winner over fences who was wearing blinkers for the first time. If he didn't run to 171 to say he ran to high 160's at least is not really a leap of faith.

Having said all of that....... I think Denman will get turned over. By who I don't know but I don't think he'll win...
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If What a Friend wins the National, I will of course take that into account.

I haven't fortotten that he was a dual grade 1 winner last time. But last I checked, being a dual grade 1 winner didn't entitle a horse to a rating in the "high 160's at least".

Direct Route was a dual Grade 1 winner back in the day, and he was never rated more than 165. And his Grade 1s were a bit better than beating Carruthers.
 
Aragorn said:
Yeah but Bully as a six year old (First since Mill House) he comfortably beat the two best staying chasers of the last ten years in a very fast time with an amateur on his back who couldn't claim. If that is not a very good performance which warrants a rating in the 180's I don't know what does... You are a hard man to please.
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Age isn't relevant in my opinion, Aragorn. Horses mature at different ages, and Long Run has been hard enough campaigned in his career. The Gold Cup was his 18th start under Rules, and it was his tenth start in a steeplechase. He ain't no 'baby'.

They key to the race is What A Friend, imo. You either believe he has improved about 8-10lbs for the application of blinkers (which isn't impossible), or you don't.

I'm amongst those that don't believe he improved that much, though I'd say he probably improved a few lbs on his previous best. I'd have him on 164 for the Gold Cup, with Long Run on 175. That kind of mark is a seriously high figure - certainly top-class, and no-one is arguing otherwise - but anything in the 180's is exceptional, and the form has to be rock-solid (for me at any rate) before I'll buy into it.

Beating two (admittedly exceptional) 11yo's, plus What A Friend eleven lengths, doesn't make the argument for me, and I prefer to exercise a degree of scepticism.

As far as this relates to Denman, I don't have him as far ahead of the opposition as some do; though I'm prepared to concede he has a half-stone in hand. This still brings him into 'vulnerable' territory, imo (for the reasons I gave earlier) and I was therefore inclined to oppose at Evens.

Every horse has his price though, and if he was trading at around 13/8 or 7/4, then I'd want to be a backer.
 
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Carlito Brigante without the big 2 tomorrow at 5/2 looks like a very nice bet, I'd even think of hunting around a little for a market that's just w/o BB.
 
Steve T said:
Carlito Brigante without the big 2 tomorrow at 5/2 looks like a very nice bet, I'd even think of hunting around a little for a market that's just w/o BB.
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I agree the 5/2 (Totesport) is slightly too big. 9/4 would be my maximum price, with 2/1 looking a fair price to lay. I think the Tote have Karabak too short at 4/1

At best prices available on the race these would be the prices I would want W/O Big Bucks tomorrow:

6/5 Grands Crus
9/2 Carlito Brigante
13/2 Khyber Kim
17/2 Karabak
11/1 Sentry Duty
22/1 Knockara Beau
28/1 Bar
 
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I think Grand Crus is the type to blow out completely.Having said that 5/2 Carlito without the big 2 is my idea of a bet.
 
I believe Big Bucks was off his food over the weekend.Grand Crus has drifted in the place market.Having a decent each way punt on Carlito at 10s in the morning.
 
Said elsewhere on another thread byt really fancy Sires Collonges in the listed hurdle tomorrow at the moment 10/1 but just can't see that price holding as it is more than possible the horse has been laid out for this race.
 
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