G
Gearoid
Guest
8/1 best now. The price he goes off depends on how strongly fancied Get Me Out Of Here is. I personally would not take sub 8/1 Sire Collonges but I will be backing the horse.
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Aintree Day 1
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
- Start date
8/1 best now. The price he goes off depends on how strongly fancied Get Me Out Of Here is. I personally would not take sub 8/1 Sire Collonges but I will be backing the horse.
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On The Bridle
At the Start
Exact same view as that... but cannot see the Carlito Brigante angle - second lowest rated in the field... Has stones to find on a few of these - can he really be the one to beat Big Bucks??? A straight place bet maybe but with ew you are automatically giving up half your stake and even in the without markets he still has loads to do. Denman at 5/4 has to be a serious bet. The novice chase is interesting - did my brains on WT at Cheltenham and at 7/4ish tomorrow Ill be giving him the skip as he looks susceptible to something with a bit of zip. Medermit at 11/4 or better would be of interest but I doubt very much whether he will drift too much.
This is either the most straighforward card with serious betting opportunities or a
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On The Bridle
At the Start
Ten dollar hooker disguising herself as a librarian...
G
Gearoid
Guest
I think the Carlito Brigante is angle is that the wind operation he had over the winter has him on an upward curve and he is unexposed over 3 miles.
Now that's being very kind to him. I would not back him in the main market but 5/2 e/w "W/O 2" looks like the best piece of snide each way you will find on the card tomorrow. Carlito Brigante could very easily win the market and can't be out of the first three where as an e/w bet on Grands Crus @ 4/1 will be placed but is unlikely to beat Big Bucks.
Now that's being very kind to him. I would not back him in the main market but 5/2 e/w "W/O 2" looks like the best piece of snide each way you will find on the card tomorrow. Carlito Brigante could very easily win the market and can't be out of the first three where as an e/w bet on Grands Crus @ 4/1 will be placed but is unlikely to beat Big Bucks.
swedish chef
At the Start
Paul Nicholls: A word of warning before Aintree .Latest News / Paul Nicholls / 06 April 2011 / Leave a Comment
Zarkandar suffered with an abscess this week
"On Monday and Tuesday Big Buck's went off his grub, so on Tuesday we gave him a blood test. Thankfully, it came back fine and he ate up this morning, so we are back on track."
They'll be among the hottest of favourites on Thursday at Aintree but it has not been plain sailing for Big Buck's and Zarkandar this week
A word of warning for Betfair punters tomorrow - in fact, three.
The first is that you can't always trust Cheltenham form at Aintree. Admittedly, three horses won at both Festivals last year - Big Buck's, Peddlers Cross and Albertas Run - but you simply never know for sure what running at Cheltenham, the most competitive of racing environments, has taken out of your horse.
Different track, different ground, different day often leads to different results, with the form not standing up.
In addition, you never know what has happened to the horses in between.
And I can reveal here that I have had a couple of minor scares with Big Buck's and Zarkandar this week.
Big Buck's always tends to give me a scare before big races, which is very nice of him. He worked moderately on the Saturday before Cheltenham before coming out and winning his third World Hurdle.
And on Monday and Tuesday he went off his grub, so on Tuesday we gave him a blood test.
Thankfully, it came back fine and he ate up this morning, so we are back on track.
I don't know what we would have done had the test come back inconclusive, but luckily it didn't. I could have done without 48 hours of worry, though.
And that is before the problem we have had with Zarkandar.
He has had a bad abscess in his mouth and we have been constantly bathing it. He hasn't missed any work but of course it has been very sore, though he is a tough buggar.
But thank god it burst yesterday morning, so touch wood it will have done his chances no harm at all tomorrow.
To win big races at the major Festivals, you can do without even the slightest of setbacks and problems.
To put it into context though, I must stress that both horses have continued to work well throughout the minor scares, and are fine.
But I thought it best to let everyone know before their races tomorrow.
Zarkandar suffered with an abscess this week
"On Monday and Tuesday Big Buck's went off his grub, so on Tuesday we gave him a blood test. Thankfully, it came back fine and he ate up this morning, so we are back on track."
They'll be among the hottest of favourites on Thursday at Aintree but it has not been plain sailing for Big Buck's and Zarkandar this week
A word of warning for Betfair punters tomorrow - in fact, three.
The first is that you can't always trust Cheltenham form at Aintree. Admittedly, three horses won at both Festivals last year - Big Buck's, Peddlers Cross and Albertas Run - but you simply never know for sure what running at Cheltenham, the most competitive of racing environments, has taken out of your horse.
Different track, different ground, different day often leads to different results, with the form not standing up.
In addition, you never know what has happened to the horses in between.
And I can reveal here that I have had a couple of minor scares with Big Buck's and Zarkandar this week.
Big Buck's always tends to give me a scare before big races, which is very nice of him. He worked moderately on the Saturday before Cheltenham before coming out and winning his third World Hurdle.
And on Monday and Tuesday he went off his grub, so on Tuesday we gave him a blood test.
Thankfully, it came back fine and he ate up this morning, so we are back on track.
I don't know what we would have done had the test come back inconclusive, but luckily it didn't. I could have done without 48 hours of worry, though.
And that is before the problem we have had with Zarkandar.
He has had a bad abscess in his mouth and we have been constantly bathing it. He hasn't missed any work but of course it has been very sore, though he is a tough buggar.
But thank god it burst yesterday morning, so touch wood it will have done his chances no harm at all tomorrow.
To win big races at the major Festivals, you can do without even the slightest of setbacks and problems.
To put it into context though, I must stress that both horses have continued to work well throughout the minor scares, and are fine.
But I thought it best to let everyone know before their races tomorrow.
swedish chef
At the Start
Aintree Betting: Paul Nicholls on his Thursday runners .Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 06 April 2011 / Leave a Comment
Denman returns to the track after that amazing Gold Cup second
"Ruby being on Denman could be significant - his form figures on the horse are 121111121."
The big guns are out on the first day of action in Liverpool - read what Paul thinks of Big Buck's and Denman and a host of other runners here
Liverpool Hurdle, 14:00
(Customers should read main story before reading)
Big Buck's: Brought the house down when winning his third World Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, so let's hope that he can go down the tried and tested route of the past two years and follow up in this race. With a horse like this there isn't much more you can say; namely, he is a superstar and up there with the best I have trained.
Now, there may have been horses in my time here that have been officially rated higher - Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded and Azertyuiop - but he matches them all for raw talent, and hardness, in my book. And he showed that again at Cheltenham last month; the pace wasn't great so Ruby had him prominent and when he had to find, he did, pulling away again when Grands Crus came to challenge him, idling in victory close home in winning by 1 ¾ lengths.
With the likes of Cross Kennon and Rigour Back Bob so close up, the form cannot be rated highly, but that misses the point; when another horse confronts him, he does not lie down. Just as well when Ruby drops his whip! His phenomenal winning run will probably come to an end at some point - and Grands Crus confirmed at Cheltenham that he is developing into a serious rival, and may be ridden differently here in a bid to beat us - but let's hope it isn't today.
Andy also has Gwanako in the race. After the Cheltenham dawdle, everyone will assume that the horse is in the race to ensure a good pace but let them speculate. He has his finest moment here when winning the Topham in 2008 but admittedly hasn't had things go his way this season, or performed to his best, his fourth at Cheltenham at New Years Day the pick of his efforts. But he takes his chance.
I respect Carlo Brigante and Khyber Kim. The former was a very impressive winner of the Coral Cup and is very progressive, and if Khyber Kim can return to the form of his Champion Hurdle second and Aintree Hurdle win last year then he cannot be readily dismissed. But they have their work cut out here if Big Buck's is firing once again.
Juvenile Hurdle, 14:30
(Customers should read main story before reading)
Zarkandar: One of the most pleasing aspects of the job is when horses surprise you. Of course, it can be mildly embarrassing on occasions, too. But I'll let you into a secret - trainers rarely know when their horses are going to win, and regular readers of this column will know that I always reserve judgement on my French imports until I see them on the track. Zarkandar was one such horse. The half-brother to Zarkava was a bit of a handful, to say the least, when he first came to us, but we had him cut and he gradually blossomed. But I wasn't at all confident when we ran him first time up at Kempton, and in fact I very nearly pulled him out on account of the ground - and if I had we probably wouldn't have been here.
But he won brilliantly at Kempton in a fast time and confirmed that promise with a decisive win in what looks an above average Triumph, and Unaccompanied didn't do the form any harm when winning a listed race at the Curragh at the weekend. I called him my Hurricane Fly after winning at Cheltenham - he jumped fluently and the turn of foot he showed when slicing through the field on the home turn was awesome - and I'll clearly be disappointed if he is beaten here. Hopefully he is a proper Champion Hurdle prospect for next season.
Totesport Bowl, 15:05
Denman: I had three winners at the Cheltenham Festival, but the performances of Denman and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup matched those victories, Big Buck's included. In fact, anyone seeing me after the race would have seen as much. After so many people had written them off as too old, it was a thrill to see them both run so brilliantly in defeat.
The trick now is to keep them in the same form, and I honestly think the breathing operation Denman had after the Hennessy could be the key to him winning this race. I don't think it made that much of a difference to his Gold Cup run (though it clearly wasn't a negative) but the way he came out of that hard race really surprised me. He normally takes a while to get over a run, but he came out of the Gold Cup as well as any other race in his career. In fact, better. So when people point to his previous post-Cheltenham disappointments - including when falling in this race two years ago, but you have to remember he had a very troubled season back then - they should bear that in mind.
The track may not be ideal but it is left-handed, which is a must. But he is in great health and on form he has a fair amount in hand of his five rivals. If he runs near to his best, then you would have to think he will win. And Ruby being on Denman could be significant - his form figures on the horse are 121111121.
Red Rum Handicap Chase, 16:15
I run both the class horses in the race in Wollcombe Folly and Tchicho Polos, but of course their weight reflects that.
Woolcombe Folly: Obviously would have disappointed many when finishing last in the Champion Chase, having started the 7-1 third favourite. Quite why he ran so poorly on his second consecutive visit to the Cheltenham Festival - he ran similarly below par in the Arkle, admittedly after a schooling fall, last year - is hard to fathom but he clearly didn't jump well enough there and the race simply didn't go to plan. We know he is a much better horse than that, as he showed when giving lumps of weight and a six length beating to Tanks For That at Cheltenham in December (in a fast time that prompted many to fancy him for the Champion Chase and back him accordingly) and he shows no ill effects from his last run. In fact, he looks better now than he did before Cheltenham. Sometimes these bay/black horses are slow to come to hand after a particularly cold spell; horses such as Poquelin and Royal Charm being two other examples. The handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds, too, which is a small bonus and Ryan takes off a further handy 5lb.
Tchico Polos: Pretty much exposed and a mark of 158 doesn't give me much room to manoeuvre - or to be particularly hopeful of him winning here. But he ran well when second to French Opera at Newbury in February (the third there, Oiseau de Nuit, won the Grand Annual) and comes here a fresh horse and has the assistance of Ruby for the first time since they won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter in November. A place is probably the best he can aim for here, but I fancy him to go well all the same.
Grade 2 Novices' Chase, 16:50
Royal Charm: I was going to run Ghizao in this but with the Maghull on Saturday only attracting nine entries, I have re-routed him there. So I rely on Royal Charm. He got plenty of people excited when winning a Beginners' Chase by 22 lengths on his fencing debut at Exeter in November, after which he was quoted around the 20.0 mark for the Arkle. I always had my reservations about him being a suitable candidate for that race and Cheltenham plans were put on hold soon after he had to fight harder than expected when following up over the same course and distance in December. He didn't do too well in the winter but at last he looks fantastic now and, because it will be on the soft side tomorrow, I have decided to run him here instead of Ayr. And he goes well fresh, too.
Handicap Hurdle, 17:25
Sire Collonges: My sole representative here from four entries. Winner of his only French start in an Auteuil in April, it has always been very clear to me that this is a horse that needs time and fences to show his true potential - and I believe he has plenty of potential. He didn't show a great deal on his first start for us in a 2m4f handicap hurdle over 2m4f at Ascot in January but certainly did show more when finishing well to be third over 2m1f at Newbury last time. Both Ruby and I said after the race "the 2m4f handicap at Aintree". The step back up in trip will suit him and the more ease in the ground the better for him. He actually races off a 4lb higher mark than when beaten over 8 lengths at Newbury so I wouldn't say he was well handicapped on what he has done (though the first two home at Newbury were both placed in the Imperial Cup next time) but he is a horse I like and he has plenty improvement in him. I am expecting a big run from him.
Denman returns to the track after that amazing Gold Cup second
"Ruby being on Denman could be significant - his form figures on the horse are 121111121."
The big guns are out on the first day of action in Liverpool - read what Paul thinks of Big Buck's and Denman and a host of other runners here
Liverpool Hurdle, 14:00
(Customers should read main story before reading)
Big Buck's: Brought the house down when winning his third World Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, so let's hope that he can go down the tried and tested route of the past two years and follow up in this race. With a horse like this there isn't much more you can say; namely, he is a superstar and up there with the best I have trained.
Now, there may have been horses in my time here that have been officially rated higher - Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded and Azertyuiop - but he matches them all for raw talent, and hardness, in my book. And he showed that again at Cheltenham last month; the pace wasn't great so Ruby had him prominent and when he had to find, he did, pulling away again when Grands Crus came to challenge him, idling in victory close home in winning by 1 ¾ lengths.
With the likes of Cross Kennon and Rigour Back Bob so close up, the form cannot be rated highly, but that misses the point; when another horse confronts him, he does not lie down. Just as well when Ruby drops his whip! His phenomenal winning run will probably come to an end at some point - and Grands Crus confirmed at Cheltenham that he is developing into a serious rival, and may be ridden differently here in a bid to beat us - but let's hope it isn't today.
Andy also has Gwanako in the race. After the Cheltenham dawdle, everyone will assume that the horse is in the race to ensure a good pace but let them speculate. He has his finest moment here when winning the Topham in 2008 but admittedly hasn't had things go his way this season, or performed to his best, his fourth at Cheltenham at New Years Day the pick of his efforts. But he takes his chance.
I respect Carlo Brigante and Khyber Kim. The former was a very impressive winner of the Coral Cup and is very progressive, and if Khyber Kim can return to the form of his Champion Hurdle second and Aintree Hurdle win last year then he cannot be readily dismissed. But they have their work cut out here if Big Buck's is firing once again.
Juvenile Hurdle, 14:30
(Customers should read main story before reading)
Zarkandar: One of the most pleasing aspects of the job is when horses surprise you. Of course, it can be mildly embarrassing on occasions, too. But I'll let you into a secret - trainers rarely know when their horses are going to win, and regular readers of this column will know that I always reserve judgement on my French imports until I see them on the track. Zarkandar was one such horse. The half-brother to Zarkava was a bit of a handful, to say the least, when he first came to us, but we had him cut and he gradually blossomed. But I wasn't at all confident when we ran him first time up at Kempton, and in fact I very nearly pulled him out on account of the ground - and if I had we probably wouldn't have been here.
But he won brilliantly at Kempton in a fast time and confirmed that promise with a decisive win in what looks an above average Triumph, and Unaccompanied didn't do the form any harm when winning a listed race at the Curragh at the weekend. I called him my Hurricane Fly after winning at Cheltenham - he jumped fluently and the turn of foot he showed when slicing through the field on the home turn was awesome - and I'll clearly be disappointed if he is beaten here. Hopefully he is a proper Champion Hurdle prospect for next season.
Totesport Bowl, 15:05
Denman: I had three winners at the Cheltenham Festival, but the performances of Denman and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup matched those victories, Big Buck's included. In fact, anyone seeing me after the race would have seen as much. After so many people had written them off as too old, it was a thrill to see them both run so brilliantly in defeat.
The trick now is to keep them in the same form, and I honestly think the breathing operation Denman had after the Hennessy could be the key to him winning this race. I don't think it made that much of a difference to his Gold Cup run (though it clearly wasn't a negative) but the way he came out of that hard race really surprised me. He normally takes a while to get over a run, but he came out of the Gold Cup as well as any other race in his career. In fact, better. So when people point to his previous post-Cheltenham disappointments - including when falling in this race two years ago, but you have to remember he had a very troubled season back then - they should bear that in mind.
The track may not be ideal but it is left-handed, which is a must. But he is in great health and on form he has a fair amount in hand of his five rivals. If he runs near to his best, then you would have to think he will win. And Ruby being on Denman could be significant - his form figures on the horse are 121111121.
Red Rum Handicap Chase, 16:15
I run both the class horses in the race in Wollcombe Folly and Tchicho Polos, but of course their weight reflects that.
Woolcombe Folly: Obviously would have disappointed many when finishing last in the Champion Chase, having started the 7-1 third favourite. Quite why he ran so poorly on his second consecutive visit to the Cheltenham Festival - he ran similarly below par in the Arkle, admittedly after a schooling fall, last year - is hard to fathom but he clearly didn't jump well enough there and the race simply didn't go to plan. We know he is a much better horse than that, as he showed when giving lumps of weight and a six length beating to Tanks For That at Cheltenham in December (in a fast time that prompted many to fancy him for the Champion Chase and back him accordingly) and he shows no ill effects from his last run. In fact, he looks better now than he did before Cheltenham. Sometimes these bay/black horses are slow to come to hand after a particularly cold spell; horses such as Poquelin and Royal Charm being two other examples. The handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds, too, which is a small bonus and Ryan takes off a further handy 5lb.
Tchico Polos: Pretty much exposed and a mark of 158 doesn't give me much room to manoeuvre - or to be particularly hopeful of him winning here. But he ran well when second to French Opera at Newbury in February (the third there, Oiseau de Nuit, won the Grand Annual) and comes here a fresh horse and has the assistance of Ruby for the first time since they won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter in November. A place is probably the best he can aim for here, but I fancy him to go well all the same.
Grade 2 Novices' Chase, 16:50
Royal Charm: I was going to run Ghizao in this but with the Maghull on Saturday only attracting nine entries, I have re-routed him there. So I rely on Royal Charm. He got plenty of people excited when winning a Beginners' Chase by 22 lengths on his fencing debut at Exeter in November, after which he was quoted around the 20.0 mark for the Arkle. I always had my reservations about him being a suitable candidate for that race and Cheltenham plans were put on hold soon after he had to fight harder than expected when following up over the same course and distance in December. He didn't do too well in the winter but at last he looks fantastic now and, because it will be on the soft side tomorrow, I have decided to run him here instead of Ayr. And he goes well fresh, too.
Handicap Hurdle, 17:25
Sire Collonges: My sole representative here from four entries. Winner of his only French start in an Auteuil in April, it has always been very clear to me that this is a horse that needs time and fences to show his true potential - and I believe he has plenty of potential. He didn't show a great deal on his first start for us in a 2m4f handicap hurdle over 2m4f at Ascot in January but certainly did show more when finishing well to be third over 2m1f at Newbury last time. Both Ruby and I said after the race "the 2m4f handicap at Aintree". The step back up in trip will suit him and the more ease in the ground the better for him. He actually races off a 4lb higher mark than when beaten over 8 lengths at Newbury so I wouldn't say he was well handicapped on what he has done (though the first two home at Newbury were both placed in the Imperial Cup next time) but he is a horse I like and he has plenty improvement in him. I am expecting a big run from him.
The dissappointment and confusion when i went to the library this morning was unbelievable....
Bar the Bull
At the Start
As always, the Thursday of Aintree serves up a treat. There is nowhere else in the world I would prefer to be than on the mound at Aintree with some mates watching the carnage at the Chair as the Foxhunters plough through it.
Great card. Serious opportunity. I am certain to make a fortune.
Last race first. I have always thought that GMOOH needs a trip. He now gets a trip. He is 9/1 and in form. I can't resist it. I have had a little €10 e/w saver on Russian War. Discount his last run and he looked a really progressive horse on good ground.
Haven't got a clue about the 2m4f race. First thought is that 2/1 on Wishfull Thinking is big. Might do that if I am having a good day.
All over Rebecca Curtis in the Foxhunters. This looks perfect for Herons Well.
I like Leo's Lucky Star and Third Intention.
Great card. Serious opportunity. I am certain to make a fortune.
Last race first. I have always thought that GMOOH needs a trip. He now gets a trip. He is 9/1 and in form. I can't resist it. I have had a little €10 e/w saver on Russian War. Discount his last run and he looked a really progressive horse on good ground.
Haven't got a clue about the 2m4f race. First thought is that 2/1 on Wishfull Thinking is big. Might do that if I am having a good day.
All over Rebecca Curtis in the Foxhunters. This looks perfect for Herons Well.
I like Leo's Lucky Star and Third Intention.
PRICEWISE2008
At the Start
2 bets for me today Baby Run to make amends for the "fall"at Cheltenham, and a hopeful e/w stab on Pateese in the 5.25.
Good luck all and enjoy the feast
Good luck all and enjoy the feast
I'm greedy for more... taken the 11/8 this morning. Omininously they reckon he is so well they had to run him. This is a great chance for Denman to show off. Ignore what the stats seem to say and that Aintree is not ideal... he wins.
jft2005
Conditional
how fit is Rebecca Curtis?!
Bar the Bull
At the Start
There are two horses I fancy at the prices. Denman and Punchestowns. Evens on the former was too short, but I am getting tempted at 11/8. I feel dirty with the latter, as I think he has been well over-rated and is soft. But 6/1 could be a savage price.
:lol: Love it BTB. I'm tempted to back him myself.
swedish chef
At the Start
For once I have to agree as the stats mean nothing now as the race was only promoted to a grade 1 last year and there are now no penalties. Can't see Denman running below 165 and can't see anything else in the field running above that.
PRICEWISE2008
At the Start
...It does seem a no-brainer doesn't it... lump on!
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
I've place-laid at 4/7.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
20/1 on Karabak. I reckon that's the first time he's been realistically priced in his career.
Still not backing him. 29 on KK is big alright.
Still not backing him. 29 on KK is big alright.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
He's good, isn't he?
Colin Phillips
At the Start
IMPRESSIVE or what?!
swedish chef
At the Start
Will we ever find out how good? brilliant :adore::adore:
Bar the Bull
At the Start
fences! Fences! Fences!