A cracking day's racing today, where I'm quite strong in some races, but taking wild swings at the others. My thoughts, for what they're worth:
13:45
I generally like to oppose horses who ran at Cheltenham at this meeting, and whilst I respect Stage Star, I thought he had a hard enough race at the Festival. For all the talk of "an extra week", I think it's a big ask for him to beat a fresh horse like Banbridge, who will be much better suited to this test, than he was in the Irish Arkle (that form franked emphatically at Cheltenham). I took 2/1 earlier in the week, and think O'Brien's horse has a massive chance. Saint Roi winning would be a kick in the spherical, but I'm not inclined to have any sickness insurance on him (not entirely convinced he will stay, tbh).
14:20
Zenta would appear to have a ton in hand here, but again, it's a quick-enough turnaround after the Festival, and she didn't appear to leave anything on the table there. Race conditions are in her favour though, and she probably has enough up her sleeve to go in here - though I'm not keen to take a short-price. Those immediately behind her in the betting don't appeal greatly, so have taken an each-way chance on Stuart Edmunds' Chaos Control (28/1), who was a fair handicapper on the level, and appeared to be getting the hang of things over hurdles at Market Rasen last time. There's a chance he has a preference for a right-handed track (been kept that way over hurdles), but equally, there's a chance - perhaps a small one - that he will improve for going this way around. Either way, he has to improve a bundle to worry the places, but is at least coming here off a decent break.
14:55
The race has lost some lustre after the withdrawal of Bravemansgame, but it hasn't really changed my opinion on the outcome. I'll be backing Shishkin with a fair bit of confidence here, and laying APT in the Win and Place markets. Ahoy Senor clearly goes well here, but in real terms, I think his level is some way lower than the others, and will instead put Conflated (an under-rated horse, imo) into a forecast with Shish.
15:30
I would really love to see Nico let Constitution Hill loose today, smash them all up, and push that hurdles-rating to the place it really belongs. Perhaps, if they're going to go chasing next season, today will be the day they decide to really go for it over hurdles. I certainly hope so, as it would be some sight to behold.
16:05
As per the Longshot thread, I've had a fair each-way cut at Envoye Special - though it's a bet borne more out of intrigue and (I hope) the price being wrong, than any real confidence. I'd be delighted if he could hit the places.
16:40
As per Lee's mention earlier in the thread, I'm hoping for a big performance from Grey Diamond, who I think is probably well-in today, despite a 7lb hike for his last run. He would have hacked-up at Sandown the time before but for falling, and a mark of 142 doesn't seem at all punitive to me.
The Bumper is a complete mystery. Will probably have small bets on the four outsiders for an interest.
