Another fast race?

davidjohnson said:
What do you clockers make of Mecca's Angel in the nursery from Southwell last night. Just the 1.52 seconds quicker than what well-regarded Bushcraft recorded when an easy winner 30 mins later. Timeform have given him a speedfigure of 95 and a formfigure of 99, but I think it's possible both could have been higher.
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I don't do figures for the AW tracks, DJ. I have nothing at all against racing on artificial surfaces but I have never had any standard times in which I have had any confidence. It's a pity because, logically, the consistency of the surfaces should lend itself to a time-based approach.
 
Cheers chaps. That's fair enough I think Gus. Even AW folk will testify though, not always straightforward. The 5f at Southwell can be a law unto itself compared to the round course there.
 
I quite like the look of Brazen in the 7.20 at Chester tonight. He's 5.7 on Betfair in a six-runner race. The drop back to the minimum trip may be the reason he's available at those odds but I thought he looked all about speed last time at Kempton and he's certainly not handicapped out of things at present, just 2lbs higher today.
 
Maputo was the star of the show last week on my figures and reminds me very much of Road To Love who won the same race a few years back. With hindsight, backing Buckstay to beat him at Redcar in May at a difference of just 5lbs was truly inspired.

The winners of the juvenile races at the July Meeting clocked the following figures on my scale: Anjaal 108/ Qawaasem 96/ Lucky Kristale 118/ True Story 112/ Good Old Boy Lukey 111/ Emirates Flyer 110/ Dutch Courage 101.

Although his wasn't the fastest figure, Dutch Courage overcame a steady early pace and trouble in running and looks a Group horse in the making to my eyes.
 
Interesting, Gus. I was on Buckstay that day too.

I'm also interested that six out of the seven juveniles you cite beat 100. I'll be doing my figures on Wednesday and I'll be gobsmacked if three top 100. I think only two did it at Royal Ascot. Or are your figures already adjusted for wfa?
 
Yes, WFA included,DO. My going allowance hardly varied over the three days. The overnight watering simply maintained things as they were.
 
these were my efforts...wfa is added at 24lb per mile...so 18 at 6f etc

Anjaal 104
Qawaasem 85
Lucky Kristale 113
True Story 91
Good Old Boy Lukey 95
Emirates Flyer 98
Dutch Courage 81
 
I gave up adding wfa a few seasons ago as it just didn't make sense. I concluded that fast 2yos are really only fast because they're more mature or precocious.

I did go through a phase of adding 18lbs only (across the board), which was kind of the average end-of-year allowance, again based on the notion of early maturity. That kind of worked but eventually I gave it up altogether.

I do keep in the back of my mind what it would be if added on, just to see how many juveniles hit 120+ and are therefore potentially G1 but I suppose if they can get an unadjusted rating of 100+ they're just about there anyway.
 
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i work with bare figures DO..i only add it on to keep in line with other people who post theirs on here..on saying that i don't use the official scale which is way out imo..if you add the official lbs your 2yo are always rated too high

for example..my bare figure for Lucky Kristal is 95...which makes a a 113 rating when adding my wfa scale of 18lb at 6f in July...but using the official wfa scale you would add 33lb making a 128...which is miles out imo
 
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At this time of year I add 27lbs at 6f and 29lbs at 7f which would go some way to explain why my figures are higher. It works fine for me as long as I treat each age group as discrete.
 
gus said:
At this time of year I add 27lbs at 6f and 29lbs at 7f which would go some way to explain why my figures are higher. It works fine for me as long as I treat each age group as discrete.
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as long as you do the same every year then i can't see a prob Gus...which leads me to not add it at and just work on bare figures..for each month you get a good idea of what par figures are for Group Class races no matter which way you look at it

what started me not using it was that the time differences between 2yo races and older horses is not as much as the official scale would suggest.

For example in July i feel that 2yo's are 1.7 seconds per mile immature...but the official scale would suggest a far bigger time difference..if you use their poundage its 2.4 seconds per mile....which you can easily check out isn't the case just comparing a few races each year with the older horses
 
There are all sorts of little problems that have to be overcome when compiling speed figures. I've always struggled with times recorded in amateur riders' races which always seem to be too fast relative to other races on the card considering the actual weight carried. I remember reading an interview with Jack Ramsden where he said something similar.

Still regard it as a worthwhile exercise, though.
 
gus said:
There are all sorts of little problems that have to be overcome when compiling speed figures. I've always struggled with times recorded in amateur riders' races which always seem to be too fast relative to other races on the card considering the actual weight carried. I remember reading an interview with Jack Ramsden where he said something similar.

Still regard it as a worthwhile exercise, though.
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I came across the same phenomenon and ended up limiting adjustments to 10-0. It makes the figures more 'acceptable' but I wonder if that's a lazy way out of it.

Sometimes I play around with the idea of the amateur race being the fastest and work the going allowance from it, but it can make other races slow. It makes me wonder if amateurs misjudge the pace and go too fast, dragging finishers to fast times. I often end up just ignoring the amateur races, though.
 
I've had a look at day 1 of the July meeting.

The first thing is that everything points to is Maputo's having put up a sh1t-hot performance for a handicapper. It was a very valuable event, one of the richest of its type all season, and a lot of the form in behind makes plenty of sense. Take Maputo out and the form would fit in very nicely with expectations of an up-to-scratch 0-100 handicap. That Maputo won it by six lengths without seeming to have too hard a race marks him down as a potential Group horse in a handicap.

The form is backed up by an extraordinarily fast time: 34lbs faster - before wfa - than Last Sovereign (OR 90) in the all-age 5f handicap, which in turn looked faster than the other races.

However, I don't think we can assume that Last Sovereign ran a time appropriate to its level. To have done so would have pushed Maputo's figure into top-end G1 territory, and all the others in behind into the G3 range. That's beyond improbable.

I think it tells us that, overall, the times on the day were pretty slow, with the exception of Maputo's, which was very fast.

So what does that tell us about Anjaal? Taking Maputo's race as providing the going allowance for the day, Anjaal has run a rather ordinary 76 before wfa considerations.

All that is using the standards I employ. Using those published in the form book, it drops to 73, so not too much in it.

I also reckon the fact that Jallota was beaten pretty much in a three-way photo points to Astaire's having been some way off form.
 
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My [unadjusted for wfa] time ratings for the 2yos at the July Meeting:

Anjaal 76
Qawaasem 63
Lucky Kristale 84
True Story 76
Good Old Boy Lukey 79
Emirates Flyer 81
Dutch Courage 68

Going allowances:

Thursday: -0.55 spf
Friday: -0.53 spf
Saturday: -0.50 spf
 
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Royal Ascot 2yos:

War Command 106
Extortionist 98
Rizeena 103
No Nay Never 105
Kiyoshi 94
Berkshire 86


Quite a difference, isn't there, between the overall levels?
 
I see Maputo is engaged at Hamilton tonight, one of three for the yard in a [now] 5-runner race. Obviously he is rated to win on last week's form but will they have their excuses ready if he doesn't?

"It came too soon."
"The step up in trip didn't suit."
"We're at a loss to explain it."

This is a conditions race so he isn't running to get another win in before his penalty kicks in - he isn't in any early-closing handicaps and handicaps are now out of his reach anyway unless he finds further significant improvement - and his new mark of 109 puts him 12lbs clear on ORs.

But it is a reasonably valuable race (nearly £24k to the winner) so are they just making hay?

Me? I think he's a prime candidate for a bounce.
 
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It's a weak race, he took nothing out of himself last week, has no penalty and won't incur one for his future group-race entries. Trip, track and ground are all within his compass, and he'd be daft not to go for it.
Easy to say about a 2/5 shot, but I'll be amazed if these trouble him.
 
I reckon a time like the one he posted last week has to take a lot out of a horse, no matter how easy it appeared.

I'm going to back up that view with a punt on Cruck Realta at 8/1 [BOG].
 
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Secretinthepark runs today in a valuable sponsored 6f handicap at Newmarket (3.55). He ran well last time out when 5th of 18 in an even more valuable event at the July Meeting and he's down a pound this afternoon. He merits a bet for me but I'll also have something on Secondo who was very impressive at Haydock last week and might have gone up by more than the 9lbs he has, given the style of his victory.

That July Meeting handicap saw Ahern finish just behind Secretinthepark in 6th of 18, about 4l off the winner, and he's been dropped a pound as well. He's now down to 94, from 107 as a two-year-old. He'd clearly lost his way but that Newmarket run suggested he's on his way back and he looks of interest today at York at around 18/1.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Last Saturday's 5.00 at Haydock looks like it might be worth following.

Robot Boy and Brazen ran behind Secretinthepark at Newmarket in May, as discussed before. They were second and third here behind Shore Step. These three were five lengths clear of the rest, who were strung out for a sprint handicap. It might otherwise have been an ordinary race but my time rating for the winner is a fair bit better than I'd expect for an ordinary Class 4 winner. The winner has gone up 6lbs. In my book, that wouldn't stop him winning another Class 4 but if he's on a curve better handicaps could be within his scope.
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Shore Step runs in the last at Goodwood today. The drop back to the minimum trip wouldn't concern me too much but I just wonder why he's been off for eight weeks. If he's straight today he'd have a good shout.
 
Thanks for the heads up, Gus. There are so many £20K+ races today I hadn't looked at the other stuff. I'll check this race out (and report back).
 
I actually have Channon's other entry Jillnextdoor top rated here but only by 1lb from Shore Step, and with Harley on the latter it looks like he's the main hope. Vincentti was unlucky against Moviesta the time before last and commands respect along with the in-form Holley Shiftwell.

I think Shore Step will need to have improved since that good race but it's entirely possible it could have improved a lot in those eight weeks. The form has been franked but not outstandingly so.

I've backed it at the nice odds this morning but have only napped it in the LON comp because the other races are much more competitive.
 
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