Another fast race?

I like the look of Sound Reflection, winner of the 7f fillies' maiden at Newmarket yesterday on her debut. Visually impressive, a decent time and a very good pedigree to back it up. The runner-up, Night Party looks promising too.

The first two home in the nursery, J Wonder and Midnite Angel, also recorded decent times. J Wonder travelled really well throughout and the second deserves great credit for running her so close conceding 6lbs.
 
Agree on the 2 Newmarket races. Any figs for the juveniles on Sar at Goodwood? Nursery looks good despite visuals and sectionals suggesting it favoured close ups, would look out for Our Queenie in particular in similar company.
 
MrFrisk said:
Anyone rated Retirement Plan's race at Goodwood on Friday yet? I can see some winners coming out of that race.
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the rough % sectional for that race was in the 106% area suggesting that although the leader was well in front early the main pack didn't go even pace so it wasn't true run race imo..my overall figure wasn't high..these were my figs for Friday

76 FORGOTTEN VOICE
104 MONTIRIDGE
110 WENTWORTH
106 MOVIESTA
59 FLYING BEAR
88 ANNECDOTE
80 RETIREMENT PLAN

Going = -2lb (Good)

Figures equate to OHR scale & wfa added
 
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davidjohnson said:
Any figs for the juveniles on Sar at Goodwood? Nursery looks good despite visuals and sectionals suggesting it favoured close ups, would look out for Our Queenie in particular in similar company.
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Yes, I've done the figures and the overall time of the nursery was strikingly good considering that several were keen, the winner made all despite pulling and it seemed to pay to race reasonably prominently. I've got Art Official down as running a time 11lbs in front of his handicap mark and he won't go up by anything like that much. The first five home in the race should be well enough treated based on their times on Saturday and I haven't given up yet on the sixth, Munjally, who remains reasonably handicapped on some of his earlier form and probably has some improvement to come.
 
gus said:
The first two home in the nursery, J Wonder and Midnite Angel, also recorded decent times. J Wonder travelled really well throughout and the second deserves great credit for running her so close conceding 6lbs.
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Agree with this. Was taken with both of these and they look like they'll be competitive in stakes races. Winner definitely has more scope though.
 
Midnite Angel entered up in Sweet Solera back at HQ on Sat. Could take on Dunlop's Goodwood mdn winner that was behind J Wonder at Newbury.
 
Art Official goes up 5lbs, others by less and Munjally is actually dropped 2 so the first six home at Goodwood will all be of interest in future nurseries.

The handicapper seems to have "bottled" J Wonder and Midnite Angel completely as there's no revised rating for either in the new marks as printed in today's Weekender. He's dropped Dancealot, third home at Newmarket, from 75 to 73, however.
 
gus said:
The first two home in the nursery, J Wonder and Midnite Angel, also recorded decent times. J Wonder travelled really well throughout and the second deserves great credit for running her so close conceding 6lbs.
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Compared with the 6f handicap later in the day, it looks very fast but that would also make the 7f handicap (won by Bluegrass Blues) ridiculously fast too so I've concluded this latter race was more true-run and a more reliable indicator of the going.

It puts J Wonder on a more believable 76 before any wfa adjustment.

It also puts Sound Reflection back in the ball park.
 
Art Official's time rating doesn't look out of the ordinary either, taking the consolation sprint (comparatively some way faster than the big one) as the marker for the going.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Art Official's time rating doesn't look out of the ordinary either, taking the consolation sprint (comparatively some way faster than the big one) as the marker for the going.
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I always treat the straight and round courses at Goodwood as separate for time purposes.
 
gus said:
I always treat the straight and round courses at Goodwood as separate for time purposes.
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Normally I do too - indeed I usually do at all courses - but the difficulty here is that the only other races on the round course that day were over substantially different trips and there was a strong wind against in the straight meaning it was with them for the early part of the round course races.

It would require a fair degree of calculation to extrapolate the combined effect of wind and ground conditions over each furlong of the different distances.

The only race seemingly close to true-run on the round course was the 12f handicap, which puts Art Scholar on a very respectable 87 but then again more than half of his race was run on the faster part of the course.

And what if Art Scholar's was the only true-run race on the round course anyway?

It's why while I like to calculate time ratings I'm much happier relying on form and leaving 2yo races alone!
 
the % sectionals will tell you which races are truly run..even if only roughly done it gives you a very good idea of what happened in the race
these were my efforts for both meetings..on the OHR scale and wfa added

Goodwood 3 August

95 SEEKING MAGIC
93 PETHERS MOON
97 WINSILI
98 REX IMPERATOR
65 SNOW TROUBLE
80 ART OFFICIAL
71 PAL OF THE CAT

Going = -11lb (Good)
===============================================
Newmarket 3 August

86 SOUND REFLECTION
79 BLUEGRASS BLUES
92 J WONDER
90 URBAN DANCE
72 PREMIO LOCO
69 MISS DASHWOOD
60 SECRET LOOK

Going = +1lb (Good)
===============================================
 
gus said:
Art Official goes up 5lbs, others by less and Munjally is actually dropped 2 so the first six home at Goodwood will all be of interest in future nurseries.

The handicapper seems to have "bottled" J Wonder and Midnite Angel completely as there's no revised rating for either in the new marks as printed in today's Weekender. He's dropped Dancealot, third home at Newmarket, from 75 to 73, however.
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J Wonder up to 85 and Midnite Angel up to 90.

Would fancy them both to start pretty short off those marks.
 
EC1 said:
the % sectionals will tell you which races are truly run..even if only roughly done it gives you a very good idea of what happened in the race
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So which races do you reckon were closest to true-run?

My figures say Seeking Magic (straight) and Pether's Moon (round, leaving Art Scholar aside) at Goodwood, and Bluegrass Blues at HQ.
 
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lbs above or below their OHR's..I estimated 80 +85 for the maidens ..they of course are just my expected OHR before calculating time figures as we don't have actual OHR's for those

+2 SEEKING MAGIC
-2 PETHERS MOON
-6 WINSILI
-6 REX IMPERATOR
-15 SNOW TROUBLE
-4 ART OFFICIAL
-2 PAL OF THE CAT

+1 SOUND REFLECTION
-4 BLUEGRASS BLUES
+13 J WONDER
+1 URBAN DANCE
-39 PREMIO LOCO
-10 MISS DASHWOOD
-27 SECRET LOOK
 
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I'm not sure we're comparing apples with apples, in terms of our approaches.

Diff'rent strokes for different folks, more than one way to skin a cat and all that...
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not sure we're comparing apples with apples, in terms of our approaches.

Diff'rent strokes for different folks, more than one way to skin a cat and all that...
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we are if you work on the OHR scale

they are traditional speed figure calcs..nothing different to what others do i wouldn't think

those figures are just the faster or slower each race was in lbs...you must have similar figures or how do you know how far in front of a horse's OHR they are?
 
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for instance..these are topspeeds figures above below

+1 SEEKING MAGIC
-6 PETHERS MOON
-16 WINSILI
-8 REX IMPERATOR
-15 SNOW TROUBLE
-1 ART OFFICIAL
-1 PAL OF THE CAT

-1 SOUND REFLECTION
-8 BLUEGRASS BLUES
+7 J WONDER
-1 URBAN DANCE
-40 PREMIO LOCO
-18 MISS DASHWOOD
-31 SECRET LOOK
 
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EC1 said:
those figures are just the faster or slower each race was in lbs...you must have similar figures or how do you know how far in front of a horse's OHR they are?
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Faster or slower than what?

My basic premise is that you don't win handicaps if you've only a pound or two in hand of your OR, unless you're talking about Class 6 or maiden handicaps. For a horse to win a decent one and be rated, for example, 1lb better (Seeking Magic) than its OR is, imvho, undervaluing the form by some way.

To take it to the opposite extreme, the winner of the handicap hurdle at Galway on Friday got an RPR 22lbs higher than its OR, which isn't actually that unusual in Irish racing where ORs tend to be extremely conservative until we get further up the scale and the ratings are harmonised with the BHA.
 
Goodwood: Seeking Magic +3; Pethers Moon -10; Winsili -13; Rex Imperator -8; Snow Trouble -5; Art Official +11; Pal Of The Cat -6.

Newmarket: Sound Reflection +9; Bluegrass Blues -2; J Wonder +15; Urban Dance +1; Premio Loco -37; Miss Dashwood -17; Secret Look -23.

The plus/minus figures for the maidens are based on a notional BHA rating of 85.

J Wonder's 7lb "hike" looks way under to me. Although it's an unlikely scenario, she would go off very short if she took in another nursery off that mark, as DJ suggests.
 
I'm in agreement with EC regarding the OHR's pre race. There are many ways to form a class allowance/time expectation for races, but the HCPer has done all of that for you if you use the official scale.

Also, in regard to HCP's, I'm not convinced the winners always run above their marks. You can think of it as moving the win line either forward or backwards depending on the pace of the race.
Races run below a true pace you can visulise the win line being further forward, and therefore look to what could have won (fast finishers) with a little further to run/faster pace.
Likewise, races run overly fast you can visulise the win line being further back and look for what could have/should have won with a more conservative pace.

Theres many horses that don't have a trip and as such really need an overly strong pace, they're not 'well in' but are able to plod on through to take it as the others weaken, yet they're hopeless if stepping up another furlong and wont act with cut. The HCP keeps them at an overly high mark, they then have to wait to be dropped a few pounds and for a race to fall into their laps. I used to use known horses like that to help determine the GA.
 
MrFrisk said:
Anyone rated Retirement Plan's race at Goodwood on Friday yet? I can see some winners coming out of that race.
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First test of this theory tomorrow in the 6:20 at Haydock, AMBLESIDE. Raised a pound for the run but dropped in class for this.
 
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