Another fast race?

the course topographies would need to be very different at one course to make it possible to run as fast at 12f as at 7f...tell me where they are able over 12f at Ascot to run faster than they do at 7..both courses are on the climb..especially the 12 where they climb for what..6 or 7f?

yes i agree some courses are so odd that you can't do this sort of comaprison..but Ascot is stiff on both tracks..more so the 12f one

standard time making is wide open to interpretation and error..far more so than looking at a simple theory that its not possible to run as fast per furlong at 12 as it is at 7..its not my theory...its just not possible to do so

do you know how those Ascot standards were produced..and if they are correct why is it that every speed figure maker has different standards..they aren't exactly scientific are they?..standards in general i mean
 
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i'm trying to find some common ground tbh DO..we all have different methods..standards etc..a simple way of highlighting fast races is to me preferable to constantly disagreeing about whether a race is fast using all our different methods

if this isn't a way you think is viable then there is nowt lost
 
From the Standard Times booklet:

...Standard [and Record] Times were originally compiled from times recorded on good to firm going after adjustments had been made for weights carried above or below a norm of 9st.
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Desert Orchid said:
From the Standard Times booklet:
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good to firm covers a wide range of surface speeds though really doesn't it?...officially it can be anything from Good to Hard

i've made my own standards for years..but i'll be honest and say i'm never truly happy with them..or using them as a way to rate horses

I can guarantee that if you give 10 people the task of calculating standards for a track they will come up with different ones..even if you tell them to work them out to a 100 horse carrying 9-0
 
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My beef with certain means of measuring times dates back to the time I read Mordin's book on the subject. I experimented with it for a while and it cost me fortunes. As soon as I went back to the Standard Times, the winners started stotting in.

Then I experimented with the new RP standards - on the assumption they were fine tunings of the STs - which again was disastrous. Once back on the STs everything returned to normal.

Nothing quite like empirical evidence, in my opinion.

However, I reckon when we agree on something, we have something to go to war with!
 
i favoured same distance comparisons for a good while DO...remember Madison Du Berlais the day 7/2/09 ..its time compared well with same distance race...i said on here then it was a great run just on that same distance comparson...it then lost at Cheltenham due to the track not suiting but then won at Aintree at 14/1 beating Denman again..i realised at that point that that method of comparison is simpler and in the main more profitable...Gigilo uses the same method and even when i think some of the races he uses may be pulled down by other distance races they seem to be more predictive in the main
 
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EC1 said:
good to firm covers a wide range of surface speeds though really doesn't it?...officially it can be anything from Good to Hard
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Yes, it does but I'm a lot happier relying on actual times recorded over many years than on manufactured or theoretical times such as those suggested by Mordin's book.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Back on topic, I think I've spotted another fast race. Again, it may be just the fastest on a day of slow times but I have Esteaming (Race 2432, 5.00 York, 17 May, 12f 3yo h'cap) clocking by far the fastest comparative time of the day. The next nine home had either won or been placed the time before and they were pretty strung out at the end.
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Buckstay, sixth to Esteaming, is an interesting runner in a 10f handicap at Redcar tomorrow. He travelled well at York and looked a big danger two out only to weaken quite badly, looking for all the world like a non-stayer at a mile and a half. Prior to that, he'd run well over 10f at Pontefract with Esteaming behind.
 
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Buckstay - Interesting wee race, in that four of the six have already won this season, three of them last time out, and the other two coming from possibly good races. Buckstay was noted as a possible non-stayer over 12f last time having looked to be going well two out. I think the form of the principals is very strong for the grade (and stronger again if taken purely on times) so if he was a possible winner at shorter he must have a shout today. The other non-winner this season, Legal Waves, might be the one to fear as his most recent race might also have been better than a Class 4 handicap.
 
I think Buckstay is a bet at the 7.8 currently available on Betfair. Defining "value" is something I find difficult but if you regard him - as I do - as having a slightly better than average chance then in a five-runner race like today's he should be priced up around the 4.5 mark.
 
Interesting thread guys. I've always questioned the value of doing your own own speed figs or simply using a ready made set.

That Redcar race looks a tough one as I find it hard to find oppose the fav Maputo, apart from the skinny price.

Legal Waves turned out to be a large lay for me last time at Windsor, as I laid it odds against and then again @ 1.67. I thought the Cecil/ Stoute runners would be on my side but they were massive drifters, ran accordingly, but LW still got turned over.

Maputo on a mark only 1lb more than Legal Waves, with every chance that he will dictate the pace, I'd certainly favour the Johnson horse. Chevalgris has a formline with Maputo on differing ground, but again I'd expect the boring fav to finish in front.

The fact that Buckstay hit 1.6 for £440 at York is a clear indicator that he was travelling well. Looks fairly priced, but will the likely slow pace be an issue. Another slight concern re Buckstay is his full brother, although of less ability never trained on.

Unless Fallon tries to force the early pace with Maputo, I can see the race favouring the fav. I certainly hope Legal Waves gets supported to ease out the price of the fav. Maputo may well drift in running even in the lead, as invariably the MJ horses seem to come under pressure first.

I've backed Buckstay as a saver, with the intention of backing Maputo later at a bigger price.
 
gus said:
I think Buckstay is a bet at the 7.8 currently available on Betfair. Defining "value" is something I find difficult but if you regard him - as I do - as having a slightly better than average chance then in a five-runner race like today's he should be priced up around the 4.5 mark.
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I took the 8/1 (BOG) this morning before Grandorio came out.
 
doomster said:
That Redcar race looks a tough one as I find it hard to find oppose the fav Maputo, apart from the skinny price.
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Wouldn't / shouldn't that be reason enough?

He's bottom rated on my figures and on TS ratings, and mid-table on RPRs so why is he so short? Bookmaker intelligence? Weight of money?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Wouldn't / shouldn't that be reason enough?

He's bottom rated on my figures and on TS ratings, and mid-table on RPRs so why is he so short? Bookmaker intelligence? Weight of money?
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i'd be very wary of this race..looking at the amount traded on this race on Betfair ..only the Zetland has more at 90K...this one is 46k..whereas most of the other races average 10k....and Maputo has 74% of that on him. Its only a class 4 so i don't see why so much money is there unless this one is really fancied...probably a contender for the will win thread.

I agree on paper he doesn't have anything in hand here...which makes the confidence behind him more significant imo...i'll wager it wins easy
 
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forgot to say

I think Halfwaytocootehill in the 2.50 at Redcar has a chance on its run behind Flamingo Beat.

That race was just a little slower than par on my figs..but the sectionals point to a steady early pace which makes the finishing time look very good in relation..it should have been damaged more...they must have been finishing very quickly in that race ..so any horse that came from off the pace is very fit and ready...Halfwaytocootehill is the only horse that could close into those fast sectionals...today he is in a bigger field which should make the pace more suitable for him...i got on at 9.0 and he is now down to 7.2 on betfair
 
He's bottom rated on my figures and on TS ratings, and mid-table on RPRs so why is he so short? Bookmaker intelligence? Weight of money?
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The price does appear short, but I would say it's the trainers record at the track especially with 3yo handicappers. If you were a layer of his his 3yo's at Redcar, you would be showing a serious loss. If you consider his horses are over bet, especially up to 2007, it is a stat to consider.

You can argue about price thresholds, but did a quick query of 3yo h/cappers in May / june at track, with a max price of 2/1:

11.05.2009 Redcar Tarzan (IRE) 11/8 1st/5
1.05.2008 Redcar Tajweed (IRE) 6/5 1st/4
12.05.2003 Redcar Dubai Tower (USA) 13/8 1st/7

Should we not be focussing on the speed figure of the opponents 2nd runs if making comparisons ?

As mentioned before, I don't think this will be a fast run race anyway.

A lot of speculation, but he does look the most probable candidate to hit the mid 90's at some stage, even if the stable are hard to predict.

I'm not keen on the Meehan horse, so I'd rather cover Maputo and Buckstay to show me a profit, hopefully.
 
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