Another fast race?

Got it all his own way, didn't he? Buckstay ran well enough under an indifferent tactical ride but would never have got near the winner on the day. I'm just annoyed the two NRs cost me the place portion.
 
I'm just annoyed the two NRs cost me the place portion.
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I was in a similar situation DO, with a place acca riding on Mapunto. Had me wondering why the hell I placed the bet in the first place.

Been sat all day in front of tv and computer and managed to miss the race.
 
Another couple of fast races - apparently - but I'm not comfortable taking them at face value.

Chester Saturday (25/5) 5.20 - Ralston Road gets a time rating of 90 before wfa, which makes it very fast for the class of race. The runner-up Snowy Dawn also gets a big rating. Normally I'd be very suspicious but they were no less than 11 lengths clear of the 9/4f.

York Saturday (25/5) 4.35 - Pearl Bridge and Nurpur were only a head apart but the time compares very favourably with Kingsgate Choice's in the valuable 5f handicap for older horses 90 mins earlier.

Meantime, I have the times at Haydock that day as very slow all round (after making adjustments for the added distances on the round course). I wonder if they went over-fast in the Temple to end up with such a very slow time. While that was arrived at via a g/a extrapolated from the round course, it was still only 15lbs and 16lbs faster than the winners of the two divisions of the Class 4 handicap that followed.
 
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after Declamation's poor show and the runs of those in 2nd & 3rd i'm keeping a close watch on that particular now DO...I agree there is something in fast races taking their toll next time out...i've seen it so many times through the years.

we need to make a list of horses to follow DO...i think back for 3 runs..or until win
 
Colin Phillips said:
Isn't this an example of "the bounce"?
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sometimes i think thats the case and sometimes the follow up race isn't on the menu for winning

i've been checking back through the last few years and the number of times you get ..particularly in maiden races..a horse that runs very fast..then wins after bombing out ..is quite numerous

As DO has said..if you belive in your ratings you have to weather the storm

One problem is that when you have a horse in your mind and it runs below par next run..you feel like never backing it again as you put a lot of faith in it being well in...then next time...a feeling worse than that when you don't back it...and it floats in at larger odds than when you bet it on the bomb out

keep the faith is it really isn't it?
 
I remember noticing many years ago that sometimes a Pipe-Scudamore horse would put up a monstrous time rating and lose next time out. I hadn't heard of the bounce in those days. It was early in the partnership, around the time when the riding tactics were to go off at a strong gallop and get a breather into the horse while the others were making their ground. As the gap closed, Scu would ask his horse for another effort and they'd pull clear again, often putting up career bests in terms of times. Next time out they'd lose at short odds but they'd soon win again. I just thought they were pulling strokes but maybe it was the effects of a harder race than it looked.

I know Nick Mordin usually suggests following his system selections on their next three runs (don't know if it's stop-at-a-winner though) so maybe that's the way to go with these fast time horses.
 
What I find, and what I guess we all read years ago, is that it's what a horse does in the end of it's race that gives the clues.

Declamations final section was slow despite looking impressive, so an indication it had given it's all. Maybe best to keep on side with fast horses NTO only if they were actually accelerating towards the finish.

I'm not convinced with your opinion of Declamation, EC, on two opposing fronts.

It won by 6L, yet the HCPer only put it up 3lbs.

The reason I think he did that was because it had the slowest final section of the meeting (all things considered), but when I did the sections (I'm going from memory, but I'm 95% sure), if you look at the final section of the middle distance race on the card, the winner finished faster than any of the 5F winners (all allowances considered). I think I rated Declamation 80, but in hindsight, I'd be happy to drop the whole meeting another 3 - 4lbs.

On the other side of the coin, it did stay on at Yarmouth, and was only beaten by the 2nd by 1L. The winner Maid A Million obviously needed it's first run back, despite being bumped and pulling hard, then improved big style for fast ground (only running in the mud last year). So on that note, you can't really say Declamation bombed out.

I think it had a tough race. We over rated the Beverley meeting (take a look at those sections and how the overall form is working out since for the other races as well), and it ran into a really well HCPed sort in Maid A Million.

Wouldn't be surprised if they tried Declamation over 6F on good. Perhaps at Pontefract or Carlisle?

Just had a look at it's entries, 01/06/13 Muss 1M, 04/06/13 Ripon 1M1F170yds.

I'll wait until it drops back in trip, mark, and the price is through the roof. :)
 
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CPG
Completely at odds with your interpretation of the form, and I'd humbly suggest you're reading too much into that final sectional
Declamation made all at a good pace, over an extended 7f with a stiff uphill finish at Beverley, (form comments read; Made all, ridden clear over 1f out, kept on strongly), and though he may have run a slow final furlong, that was simply a product of the efffort he'd used in going clear previously. Though only raised 3lb for that performance, it's worth noting that the 2nd was also dropped 3.
Small wonder (imo) that, on a flatter track over a slightly shorter distance (albeit slightly slower ground), and in a race run at a steady early pace, that he didn't have the speed to repeat his Beverley performance.
As his entries suggest, he's a horse who needs further, not shorter.
 
EC1 said:
I agree there is something in fast races taking their toll next time out...i've seen it so many times through the years.
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As I've said earlier on this thread it's not necessarily due to the after-effects of a fast-run race. Where horses trained by Johnston are concerned, there's also the issue of inconsistency which is a constant theme.
 
"Completely at odds with your interpretation of the form, and I'd humbly suggest you're reading too much into that final sectional
Declamation made all at a good pace, over an extended 7f with a stiff uphill finish at Beverley".

Ignoring it's seasonal debut, if you look at it's form over 7F at Ling and Wolves, I'd be looking at shorter. Also, while Beverley has a stiff finish, that is slightly negated due to the fact that they're running downhill for a part of that CD, with a climb of around 2.5F to the line. Which is why I think a really stiff 6F on genuine GD ground might be best (Ponty , Carlise for example).

The final section I pointed out, indicates it has speed, as, like you say, it had obviously used it's 'speed' early to get a figure above it's mark and had run a bunch of donkeys into submission. If it has speed, which we know it has, then why did it just plug on at Yarmouth off a slow pace? I haven't seen or rated the Yarmouth race, but I'll take your word for it.

I think it's a leader or a close to the pace type of horse over a stiff 6F.

We'll find out soon enough.
 
I've just checked the video of Esteaming's race at York. You'd have to say the winner travelled into contention very easily. If the time of the race is very fast then you also have to give Sioux Chieftain a lot of credit for keeping on so well having raced prominently throughout.

We'll see how Esteaming and the fourth Allnecessaryforce (will be visored for the first time) get on when they meet in the big one at Musselburgh tomorrow.
 
Just done my figures for the race. Esteaming must have a chance but even so if Dashing Star's Dante form can be taken at face value he's the one to beat.
 
Could be a good day for David Elsworth up there. Justice Day has an obvious chance in the two-year-old race and Llaregyb is very well in on my figures in the first.
 
Well I tried to take the 12/1 with Ladbrokes just after 8am but by the time I deposited enough money into the account it had shortened to 10/1. There's no BOG at that time so I let it go but managed to get 10/1 (BOG) elsewhere. It has shortened up across the board but Ladbrokes have gone to extremes, cutting it to 13/2. Maybe it is quite fancied.
 
CPGagie said:
NEWBURY 18th

REMOTE 105
Dare To Achieve is entered in a maiden at Sandown on Thursday, back over this trip.

WILLING FOE 108

HALLELUJAH 103
Seeking Magic looks to be still progressing.

FARHH 124
Aljamaaheer looks progressive, and can pick up a GP3 during the summer.

ANNECDOTE 89
The 2nd is entered in a 0-95 on the 25th, is seemingly going the right way, and should come on from this run.
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Didn't notice REMOTE running off 89 yesterday, making it some 16lbs well in. Wins by 6L.
 
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Tsk tsk, Mr G....

What do we pay you for??

Could have been a lovely double with Dashing Star (also well clear).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just done my figures for the race. Esteaming must have a chance but even so if Dashing Star's Dante form can be taken at face value he's the one to beat.
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I owe you for that, DO. Esteaming was to have been my only bet in the race but I had a bit on Dashing Star on your say-so and I'm glad I did.

Esteaming will be of interest again when there's a bit of cut.
 
MrFrisk said:
Has anyone rated the meeting at Newmarket on Saturday 18th May? If so, what do you make of TIGER CLIFF's race? I've got him still very well handicapped even after his 5 lbs hike in the weights. The first 7 in the race look worth following.
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I see TIGER CLIFF has been made Ante-Post joint fav for the Northumberland Plate. Four of those in behind him are also in the Plate BIOGRAPHER, who looks likely to go to Royal Ascot instead, DE RIGEUR, MUBARAZA and RED ORATOR.
 
I can't offer anything Mr Frisk, as my Newmarket standards stop at 1M4F (just never got around to compiling the longer trips).

I've just spent a little while rating the rest of the meeting though, and a couple would seem to be well in, though I haven't looked at sections or even the replays. So going totally old school and playing with the form book while looking at the GA's....

1:45 Red Seventy 78
The second looked to be worth a chance as it RO and ran to it's mark. Went and won NTO when up a furlong. Wish I'd rated when you first asked. :whistle:

2:20 Tiger Cliff (no rating)

2:55 Hasopop 96
Worth looking through the replay as the form book says a few hard luck stories. Burning Blaze ran 10lbs below it's mark, but didn't get a clear run and RO, for example.

3:30 Dundonnell 102
That put Music Master at 91, but the HCPer has stuck it up to 103. Open to bags of improvement, but I think that was a little harsh to be honest. Not entered anywhere as yet.

4:05 Hoarding 107
Jammy Guest in 3rd is entered in a few races and is worth a second look. Sandown on the 6th over 7F in a 0-90, but certainly wouldn't want the ground drying out too much by then. Plenty open to improvement in that field, but worth weighing up.

4:40 Granell 75

5:15 Prince's Trust 75

5:50 Brass Ring 85
Winner ROW, not sure it can take the Ascot race it's entered in though. Has been put up to 87, so probably well in for a HCP and looks very progressive.
 
Thanks for the response CPGagie. I've got Hasopop, Granell and Prince's Trust a little higher rated. Shame you aren't able to rate Tiger Cliff's race because as you can see from the Racing Post website, it was the fastest race on the card.

RACE DIST WINNER COMPARISON/COMP per F
*
1:45 7f Red Seventy +1.78s +0.25s
2:20 1m6f Tiger Cliff -0.17s -0.01s
2:55 6f Hasopop +0.60s +0.1s
3:30 7f Dundonnell +1.03s +0.15s
4:05 1m2f Hoarding +2.33s +0.23s
4:40 1m Granell +3.07s +0.38s
5:15 1m Prince´s Trust +3.04s +0.38s
5:50 1m4f Brass Ring +4.75s +0.4s
 
I generally only bet on races between 6F to an extended 1M2F. Will occasionally have a bet in a 5F or 1M4F race, but it's very rare.

I think the Jockeys are open to more error with pace at longer trips, and everything seems exaggerated over them (going, CD, pace errors). Whatever it is, my results were screaming at me to leave 1M3F+ races alone, so I did.

Hope you get a few winners from that race anyway.
 
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