Ante-Post - Flat 2016

Librisa Breeze was pulled from the Bunbury Cup consolation on account of the ground. He's in the International on King George day and whilst there's a chance of fast ground there as well obviously I reckon for such a big prize he may be allowed to take his chance. I've gone in again.

I thought the Summer Mile at Ascot yesterday was a nice enewal with a very good winner but with a view to Goodwood I liked the run of Dutch Connection. He was taken to the inside from his wide draw early on and ran well holding the pack off behind Mutakayef. He was second in the Lennox last year on g/s but he's better on decent ground. This race will cut up nearer the time and granted fast underfoot conditions he'll be a lot shorter on the day than he is now. I've taken 15 on Betfair.
 
Some firms have priced up the Dewhurst. Caravaggio is clear favourite, predictably, from Churchill and it's 16/1 bar the two. They're unlikely both to run so Boynton at 16/1 looks decent value. His performance at Newmarket last week stands up in form and time terms. In fact, his form looks some way better than Churchill's Chesham form on not very complicated lines involving Cunco and Mr Scaramanga. It was only his second run so he's likely to have improvement to come and it's an obvious race to target with him. Yes, it's Godolphin and the Emotionless flop is fresh in the memory but the price looks huge to me. Caravaggio looks very good, of course, but I'm not convinced he's quite the superstar that some are suggesting.

I've had a few quid on, anyway.
 
I've taken 12s about Candarliya for the Yorkshire Oaks. I think the 3yos are sub par Minding apart and Journey heads the market at 6/1. She is not a Group 1 performer imo whereas Royer-Dupre's charge may well be. She was narrowly in front of Sea Calisi in last year's Vermeille and that filly may well have won at York with a better ride. I think this renewal won't be as good.
 
Last edited:
Franklin D paid his previous Sandown conqueror Mutamakkin a massive form boost today. They are both entered in the Betfred Mile at Goodwood in two weeks, with Franklin general 8/1 anti-post favourite.

Mutamakkin should probably be forgiven the last run on soft I reckon. Gd-Fm would be nice for him.
Franklin D has clearly improved with the visor, and on that note I wonder if Stoutey will stick blinkers on Mutmakkin as he's has been a slow starter before. I don't know, we'll see.

I haven't checked the full list of entries out for it but I'd be surprised if Mutamakkin didn't shorten up in the betting in the next week or two. It could be more like 5/1 7/1 the pair on the day f they are both declared, imo. Plenty f juice in the prices, especially Mutamakkin.
 
Last edited:
Manson is also in that race. He was **** poor last week at Newmarket but I'll give him another chance round a turn. His win at Sandown with Defrocked in behind was franked again when Shaan won the last today also at Newmarket. I put Shaan in the tracker as well as Manson after the Sandown contest and whilst I put him up in the Summer tipping competition today I don't back the frigger because I was worried about the step up in trip. He touched 17 on the machine. Frustrating.

All that said it's best to wait till the day as it's the biggest draw race of the whole season.
 
Last edited:
Bermondsey* (4,05) looks the proverbial good thing today, but you wouldn't get rich backing him. However, he's 25/1 for the Ebor, and needs a penalty from today to have any chance of participation.
Shouldn't be anything near that price this evening.


*apologies to any who saw Litigant.
 
Last edited:
Has anyone heard anything about Golden Steps missing the Stewards' Cup?

I'm on ante-post but I see he's been taken out of a few lists.

I'm going to miss the meeting this year but have taken out a few a/p bets:

Golden Mile: Franklin D 8/1, White Lake 20/1, Celestial path 16/1
Stewards' Cup: Golden Steps 14/1; Raucous 33/1

If GS is out I might look to call something off the bench.
 
I think he's referring to Bermondsey finishing last Dessie.



Massive week for my punting year coming up. Have excellent ante-post possies on Highland Reel, The Gurkha and Dutch Connection. I need at least one and preferably two of those to win.
 
Euronymous said:
I think he's referring to Bermondsey finishing last Dessie.

Massive week for my punting year coming up. Have excellent ante-post possies on Highland Reel, The Gurkha and Dutch Connection. I need at least one and preferably two of those to win.
Click to expand...

The Dutch Connection bet will look inspired unless Lumiere runs in which case I think they'd all be playing for second place. Think you'll be ok, though. I'm sure I've read she's going for a G1 in France next.
 
Euronymous said:
Librisa Breeze was pulled from the Bunbury Cup consolation on account of the ground. He's in the International on King George day and whilst there's a chance of fast ground there as well obviously I reckon for such a big prize he may be allowed to take his chance. I've gone in again.

I thought the Summer Mile at Ascot yesterday was a nice enewal with a very good winner but with a view to Goodwood I liked the run of Dutch Connection. He was taken to the inside from his wide draw early on and ran well holding the pack off behind Mutakayef. He was second in the Lennox last year on g/s but he's better on decent ground. This race will cut up nearer the time and granted fast underfoot conditions he'll be a lot shorter on the day than he is now. I've taken 15 on Betfair.
Click to expand...

Truly inspired post.
 
Last edited:
gus said:
I ended up hedging my entire stake on Time Test at Ascot and I've done the same with my bet on him for the Eclipse. The current state of the ground coupled with the weather forecast for the next few days make him a very unlikely runner. Roger Charlton must be tearing his hair out.

On the subject of Charlton, Fair Eva is due to run at Newbury this week and the form of her Haydock debut couldn't have worked out much better with the well-beaten second and third both winning well since. I've backed her for next year's One Thousand Guineas at 20s and 16s.
Click to expand...

I thought Time Test won well enough at York yesterday but most observers seemed inclined to crab his performance as merely workmanlike. He cruised into contention but had to be quite firmly ridden to account for Mondialiste although he was well on top at the line. Mondialiste is a pretty good horse when on song and he was on a going day yesterday. However, I can't see any particular advantage in backing Time Test ante-post for the Juddmonte at his current odds of around 4/1 as it could yet come up soft and he's unlikely to be much shorter on the day.

Fair Eva really impressed at Ascot. As I've said elsewhere, record or near-record times aren't necessarily all that significant but her performance on the clock yesterday was terrific, on my figures the second fastest two-year-old figure this season behind that of Lady Aurelia in the Queen Mary. I'm pleased enough with my ante-post bets on her but I actually think she now looks very much on the short side at 5/1 or thereabouts.
 
Time Test would need a piece better pace than he had yesterday to have any chance in the Juddmonte. It's no coincidence that his most impressive performance (last year's Tercentenary) was over the stiffest track and at the strongest pace he's faced thus far in his whole career.
For mine, he's really a 12f horse, and a miler serving it up to him yesterday with his pacemaker close up once again, ought to be enough indication they need a jockey with a gp1 clock in his head to lead him.
 
I've backed Rhodedendron for next year's Oaks at 25/1.

A feature of O'Brien's season has been the heavy market support for a number of his runners over here and this filly was very well backed for the 7f maiden she ran in at Goodwood on Thursday. Overnight favourite for the race was Amabilis whose credentials seemed rock-solid both on form and time after her highly promising debut in a good heat at the July Meeting but Rhodedendron was punted from around 2/1 to a shade of odds-on by the off and she won in very good style.


The race was run in a sea-fret and visibility wasn't at all great. The Racing UK coverage tracked the field from behind for a significant section of the home straight until switching to the camera on the finishing line for the closing stages as the runners came into view from the stands. Moore just had to niggle her along a couple of times early in the straight. The Racing Post analysis of the race doesn't pick up on it at all but Rhodedendron could be seen meeting a bit of trouble in running about two furlongs out which meant that she was in seventh place and further back than intended as the race began in earnest with Amabilis cruising into the lead on the rails, having enjoyed a dream run through. Amabilis went short odds in running but in the end she was readily cut down by the Irish filly who found a real good turn of foot to win going away by a length and three quarters and, for me, was value for considerably more. To be fair, Amabilis had been a little bit keen in the early stages so perhaps she didn't quite give her running but you'd struggle to argue that Rhodedendron isn't better than her by quite some way.


Rhodedendron is quoted for both the Guineas and the Oaks but she strikes me as the type who might find a mile on the sharp side next year. By Galileo out of Halfway To Heaven, she is a full-sister to a 12f winner and also to Flying The Flag who stayed 10f and ran eighth in the Derby a few years back. She should stay the Oaks trip all right.


The style of Thursday's performance, coupled with the market support, suggest she's a top filly in the making.
 
Easy Victory is declared for the Sweet Solera at Newmarket on Saturday. It's a step up in trip and presumably they'll be skipping the Lowther with her now. Jockey bookings are interesting with Probert riding her and James Doyle, who presumably had the choice, riding Grecian Light for Appleby. Easy Victory has drifted from 2/1 to 11/4 with Paddy Power in the face of support for Grecian Light from 5/1 to 7/2. Form horse is undoubtedly Nations Alexander, a close third in the Cherry Hinton (or whatever it's now called). It should be an informative race.
 
James Doyle is retained to ride the SBS horses, so it's significant he's on the Appleby horse in this race. It's probably more significant that W Buick forgoes the mount to ride Scottish in the Rose Of Lancaster though.
 
I kind of want to oppose Scottish as the race he won at Newbury had a frigging Gold Cup winner in the frame, however I couldn't pull the trigger on Arab Spring when he was 7s as I wasn't sure he was gonna run.

The Maurice de Gheest on Sunday looks ripe for a bet:
Dutch Connection has had a couple of races recently and I'm not sure about the trip
Gold Fun represents the Magical Memory/Twilight Son form line which I'm not sure about after the July Cup
Air Force Blue, Gifted Master and Gordon Lord Byron. Just no

Attendu is overpriced at 14s. Had Esoterique in behind when winning the Palais-Royale and ran well enough in the Djebel also. Might need soft ground over this trip but he surely looks more likely than a lot of his rivals in single figures.
 
Last edited:
reet hard said:
James Doyle is retained to ride the SBS horses, so it's significant he's on the Appleby horse in this race. It's probably more significant that W Buick forgoes the mount to ride Scottish in the Rose Of Lancaster though.
Click to expand...

I didn't know that about the retainer.

Given that he rode Easy Victory on her debut, he has clearly "got off" her, as the saying goes.
 
Placing a bet online deprives you of the opportunity to tear up your slip but I've mentally torn up mine on Easy Victory for the Guineas. Shocking run yesterday.

Caravaggio's victory today at 1/8 proved little but credit at least to the bookies for declining to cut his price for the Two Thousand. Air Force Blue's disastrous season continued later on on the card and those who were taking short prices about him last winter for this year's Guineas will be reluctant to get involved with Caravaggio at current odds.
 
Nuno Tristan interests me at 12/1 for Saturday's Great St Wilfrid at Ripon. I backed him for the Stewards' Cup consolation race at Goodwood last week and he was unlucky. Squeezed out at the start, he ran on well towards the finish - as you'd expect for a horse that stays 7f - to be beaten just a length into third. He's only a pound higher on Saturday. He looks overpriced relative to the 6/1 fav, Orion's Bow, who ran in the Stewards's Cup itself, finished second beaten a length and a quarter, but is now 3lbs higher. Rex Imperator might be a bigger danger as he ran well from a poor draw in a 7f handicap at Goodwood and is back to his best trip of 6f at Ripon. He's been rated much higher in the past than he is now and he still possesses a good cruising speed. Difficult to win with, though.
 
gus said:
Nuno Tristan interests me at 12/1 for Saturday's Great St Wilfrid at Ripon. I backed him for the Stewards' Cup consolation race at Goodwood last week and he was unlucky. Squeezed out at the start, he ran on well towards the finish - as you'd expect for a horse that stays 7f - to be beaten just a length into third. He's only a pound higher on Saturday. He looks overpriced relative to the 6/1 fav, Orion's Bow, who ran in the Stewards's Cup itself, finished second beaten a length and a quarter, but is now 3lbs higher. Rex Imperator might be a bigger danger as he ran well from a poor draw in a 7f handicap at Goodwood and is back to his best trip of 6f at Ripon. He's been rated much higher in the past than he is now and he still possesses a good cruising speed. Difficult to win with, though.
Click to expand...

He certainly looks to be one of the few in the field who could be 6-7lb well in and Richard Fahey of course knows how to prepare a horse for this race

I'd give a small shout to former winner Baccaraat, Has only come down to a mark of 107 but Kevin Stott will take off 3lb and He was another one with a car park draw in the Stewards Cup and in no way ran as badly as his finishing position suggests.
 
Back
Top