Ante-Post - Flat 2016

Euronymous said:
I have three Cumani horses in my tracker, Bermondsey and Shakopee as well as Banksea, and they are all in that Newbury race.
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davidjohnson said:
First 2 named would definitely look more 10f horses, so hopefully it all works out as it should.
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Shakopee is in the Old Borough Cup this weekend. His pedigree suggests the trip won't be a problem.


Not pleased for my Quiet Reflection bet to see a good weather forecast. Also not happy Limato is still in the race as my strategy in backing initially was that Candy had said the horse needs a break between races. You cannot believe anything these people say.
 
fonz said:
Agreed, she did run well but Limato was in a different parish that day and she still finished a head behind the average Suedois, Apart from the winner there wasn't exactly much to write home about in the July Cup imo.
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Magical Memory didn't run his race there but, on his non-staying 4th in the Diamond Jubilee, looks good for the Haydock Sprint.
 
He does with the dry weather. Could be a nice recency bias type angle here, The Tin Man is a bit of a hype horse but his form doesn't add up and MM looks more of a threat to Quiet Reflection. Limato will be one to take on given his trainer's comments after the July Cup.
 
Euronymous said:
Not pleased for my Quiet Reflection bet to see a good weather forecast. Also not happy Limato is still in the race as my strategy in backing initially was that Candy had said the horse needs a break between races. You cannot believe anything these people say.
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Limato has been declared but won't run if the word "soft" appears in the going description. Judging by the weather forecast just shown on the BBC News, there's plenty of rain going to hit Haydock tomorrow morning and I'll be surprised if Limato isn't withdrawn.

Quiet Reflection will be well suited by the likely ground tomorrow as will Mitchum Swagger in the mile Group Three.
 
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Euronymous said:
She'll be a different filly next week at Haydock.
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More than proved against her elders now, Spot on Euro.

The presence of The Tin Man in 2nd still leaves a question mark over the form for me though.
 
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See if they'll accept a bet on Muthaza for the Mares Novice at Cheltenham. They're offering 10/1 about a mare that died on August 25th.
 
It's interesting to juxtapose the Irish Champion/Juddmonte with the Eclipse/POW this season. The former races absolute light years ahead in terms of quality and competitiveness and I wonder if this will be a trend or just a one off, maybe the bigger guns are wating until the late Summer/Autumn to get together these days. I'm pondering this as I got my fingers burnt badly at York when I backed The Grey Gatsby ante-post at 10 and 12s thinking the race would cut up badly, especially after Time Test was pulled. The opposite happened, and similar comments apply to the ICS where I took 7s and 8s about Almanzor a bit ago. That position isn't looking too bad but looking forward I'll be holding off on these two races from an ante-post point of view, certainly next season at least. The counter argument would be that the soft ground at Ascot and Sandown hindered the quality/size of the field.
 
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I've taken 4/1 Zhukova for the Fillies and Mares race on Champions Day at Ascot next month.

She's being targeted at the race and should come on for yesterday's Leopardstown win, her first run for four months. Genuine, consistent and an uncomplicated ride, that price is perfectly reasonable if the ground is good on the day but it will look absolutely huge if it comes up soft.
 
Not sure what the form of yesterday's race amounts to -US Army Ranger and Bondi Beach were well looked after.
 
I wouldn't fancy him for the race but it would be the logical step now that Harzand's goose has been cooked.
 
I see Wicklow Brave has been backed from 33-1 to 20-1 in the Melbourne Cup. He may also have another run before the Melbourne cup and that could be in the Long Distance Cup and as of this morning he is 8-1 after been backed from 16-1 for Long Distance Cup.I was delighted to be there and watch him win the race and of course I had a few pound on him !! Was a great days racing yesterday and Saturday.
 
I can't see lasting the 16/1 generally available about Magnus Maximus for the Ayr Gold Cup.

The grounds for for backing him are straightforward: an improver, bang in form, uncomplicated ride, ahead of the handicapper.
 
Have to say I've been delighted with how the group race betting has gone this season and I've been constantly looking for angles in the ante post lists. Unfortunately the handicaps have pretty much negated all the good work - so change of strategy next season.

I've been looking at the Sprint on Champions day because Mecca's Angel heads the market and is not a 6f horse, and Quiet Reflections was below form (even though she won the race) over C&D at the Royal meeting. Twilight Son appeals, especially if Limato misses the race, I'm hoping he goes for the Foret again.
 
Magnus Maximus was a non-runner in the end but the ground and draw had almost certainly scuppered his chance anyway. Such are the perils of ante-post betting.

I've given Sobetsu a big mention on the horses to follow thread and she's now put up at a best-priced 25/1 for next year's Oaks. Yes, she's a Godolphin filly and that creates additional risk over and above all the usual ante-post ones but I've taken that price. Just think she could be really special.
 
If Sobetsu was trained in Ballydoyle she would be half the price but with Godolphin its 50/50 she gets to the track before August next year.Maybe a lumpy bet if she runs again this season.
 
Is there anything to suggest she would beat Spatial or Unforgetable Filly if they all ran again off levels?

I agree she was impressive at the weekend.

Looking forward to the fillies mile this year. Could be a decent renewal.
 
gus said:
Banksea goes up 5lbs from 94 to 99 in the revised ratings published yesterday. That's fair enough. He was briefly held up in his run at York and made his ground up towards the stands' side which probably wasn't the place to be. If things had dropped his way he might well have beaten the winner who has gone up 7lbs. The extra furlong and likely fast pace in the Cambridgeshire will be perfect for Banksea who remains 28/1 for Newmarket with Bet365 who pay quarter the odds first five.
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32nd on the list at the five day stage. Pleasing.
 
Euronymous said:
32nd on the list at the five day stage. Pleasing.
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Indeed. Having swerved that 10f handicap at Newbury on Saturday, he looks like an intended runner.

His Donny run was ok, nothing more, but he broke well and ended up being ridden more prominently than at York. Avoided a penalty, anyway. I'd like to see him held up well off the pace on Saturday.

I've also had a bit each-way (with five places) on last year's winner, Third Time Lucky, at 20s. He's clearly running his way back to form.
 
DanB88 said:
Is there anything to suggest she would beat Spatial or Unforgetable Filly if they all ran again off levels?
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The time on Saturday was very impressive indeed. She clearly came on a long way from her July Course run.

That doesn't mean the other two aren't progressing, of course.
 
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