Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Not a prop as prices aren't out but I've read that Emmett is planning to run Filey Bay in the November Handicap off 87. I'd be very interested.
 
Need to see today’s race again but first impression was that he was cooked when the jockey fell off

Edit: Now seen the replay and my initial impression was off the mark.

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Greatwood Hurdle

Knickerbocker Glory looked good value for his easy win at Ascot last time and may still be ahead of the handicapper for all that he’s been raised 7lb for that.

The expected rain at Cheltenham won’t harm his chances but the current 9/1 is a bit lower than I’d hoped for. Still it’s not a bad price


Slight concern that Harry Skelton prefers their other runner but he may not have had the choice as Tristan Durrell won on him at Ascot and continues to claim 5lb


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It's not technically ante post now that the decs are out but as good as Captain Teague has looked, the 2m5f novice hurdle on Friday will take some getting for a novice with the ground riding soft and the Big Doyen likely to make it a real test.

The Big Doyen isn't out of it but Captain Teague will do well to concede the 5lb penalty to McConnells's Kinbara who looks like an absolute out and out stayer. 6/1 taken

50s for the spud race also taken
 
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Lovely punting card at Ascot on Saturday and as well as the Hurst Park where I've punted tracker horse Saint Segal the Coral Hurdle is the other race with a nice betting shape. Goshen is short considering he's still a dodgepot at times, Sceau Royal is 11 and Theatre Glory is very short for a mare that doesn't get the full 7. Those three head the market, 4th in is a frigging Johnny de la Hey pumpkin 4yo who surely this is too deep for. The bet is Strong Leader who was abysmal in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and he's not straightforward but that run at Aintree was so eye catching and he's bred to be a stayer. He's 7/1 in a place or two and he has another entry but that price is worth taking.
 
I think Blueking D'Oroux could be an improver. He's also entered in a handicap hurdle on Friday, so we'll see if he takes that up tomorrow. I feel he might run Saturday though.

A message for DO. Dusart is on track for the Coral Gold Cup, as per the article on the Sporting Life today, (also known to many of us as the Hennessy Gold Cup).
 
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Some juicy ante-post markets priced up now and I've got involved.

In the December Gold Cup I have backed In Excelsis Deo who is a tracker horse at 12s and I have So Scottish in a rollover as protection. Similar strategy I used in the Hennessy with Mahler Mission and Monbeg Genius.

The Long Walk the following weekend is very weak at the front end. West Balboa, Champ ffs and Paisley Park. Not having any of those. 7s or 8s about Crambo is worth an investment.

Despite not winning this past Saturday Monbeg Genius ran so well considering he was towards the front end in a race run at pace on reasonable ground. The Welsh National is likely to be more suitable and 7s is very fair.

I've also backed Galopin des Champs at 4s for the Savills. That's simply too big to resist.
 
Now Where Or When has been declared for the Becher. This is a horse I've had my eye on for a while. His third place behind Kemboy and Vanillier reads really well, given what Vanillier did in the Grand National.

I'll be backing Now Where Or When to land this. The fact he's never fallen thus far in his career boosts the confidence a wee bit.

Celebre D'allen is a blast from the past. He won well the last day, but this will be a lot harder to win.
 
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I'm hugely surprised (and somewhat disappointed) that Mister Coffey doesn't go for the Becher. Was 20s a couple of weeks ago, in to 10s last time I looked.Think there's a reasonable chance he'd have run very close, maybe making all.

Maybe it's an injury-related pull, doesn't make any sense not to go for it given the run in the National.

Looks like NH has him in the Silver Cup 23rd Dec. But that looks tough.

Lurking lowish down in that is Bangers and Cash. I was pretty sure they'd go for Chepstow this year, but looks like he's been pulled from that so logic says they'll try Ascot instead. Only 7, maybe Ben Pauling thinks it's still a year too early for a likely heavy ground Welsh National slog. If it turns up heavy at Ascot, the current 50-1 with WH looks interesting enough. Bit risky, because I can't see him finishing in front of a handful at the top of the weights over 3 miles on better ground, it it does dry up again.
 
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chaumi said:
I'm hugely surprised (and somewhat disappointed) that Mister Coffey doesn't go for the Becher. Was 20s a couple of weeks ago, in to 10s last time I looked.Think there's a reasonable chance he'd have run very close, maybe making all.

Maybe it's an injury-related pull, doesn't make any sense not to go for it given the run in the National.

Looks like NH has him in the Silver Cup 23rd Dec. But that looks tough.
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Very tough. I was looking at it just now because I wasn't that keen on the two market leaders which always entices me in to a race (Midnight River has only been right handed twice and didn't finish either time and Blackjack Magic won a poor Badger Beers imo.) I was drawn to Yeah Man of Cromwell's who was finishing like a train over course and distance last time out before coming down at the last.
 
Is that Cromwell horse Hascoeur Clermont, Euro? That form he has from last time beating Chambard franked well today. He's on one hell of a low mark. I think he is no.30 to get into the Silver Cup at Ascot, yet only 10/1 third favourite with the bookmakers. I think he's a Kim Muir horse next March.
 
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He might get in. Easy as That is in the race next week at Cheltenham and surely Snowden won't run DARG at Ascot. I'll cover on Clermont if he runs but I like the C&D angle with Yeah Man.
 
Be interesting to see if Cromwell is seriously looking to send them both over for it. I suspect he sends one and not the other, but that's just a hunch. The fact Yeah Man fell last time would put me off.

We'll learn a lot more about Easy As That next time he runs. Can we completely discount the idea that Venetia Williams runs him at Ascot instead of Cheltenham? Forumite Tiggers said he looked like he wanted a longer trip after last time. He'd get that at Ascot.
 
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I'd like him to run here as I have an uncomfortably large position on the Cheltenham race now due to Slade Steel and Nassalam winning today (both in roll overs with In Excelsis Deo and Thunder Rock respectively). A fall last time out obviously isn't ideal but I sort of take the trainer into account with that. Cromwell got Vanillier back up and rocking after a bad fall, Brides Hill as well. He's in the De Bromhead class of steeplechase trainers imo.
 
In Excelsis Deo in the two miler instead. Fakir is top weight in the DGC (will be a place lay he's on the decline and terribly handicapped now) in order to give So Scottish a nice weight. Gutted but have SS onside and Thunder Rock now. I see Monmiral has Cobden up. I fcking hate that horse, always underpriced and rarely wins.
 
I've taken 6/1 Monmiral for Saturday's big race.

I was checking through some of the form earlier and noticed how many of Saturday's field had been beaten over around 2m4f by Nicholls horses and given how impressive Stage Star was last month there has to be a chance Monmiral is regarded very highly too.

(As an aside, I have Stage Star as a 170+ horse at the moment and likely to be even better by the time the Ryanair comes round.)
 
He's the sort of horse I would have dismissed for this a year or so ago (you know what I'm talking about Dessie) but you can't really. I have a rollover left of my initial very strong position (as protection for In Excelsis Deo) on So Scottish and may cover on this. You can just never rule a Nicholls out of these type races.
 
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