Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

chaumi said:
Same race - Bowtogreatness. 16-1. Was entered up for Saturday's race at Ascot but appears to be going to Kempton instead. BP fancied his chances for Newbury last Dec but couldn't get him ready, then ran poorly in the Mandarin.

What worries me is the entry in the NH Chase (big price, fancied him to run well in this for some time). Has about a 16 day gap, should be OK but possibly won't want a hard race at Kempton.
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On my radar too, partly because of the form of the yard and partly because it was the trainer's nomination as one to watch in the Timeform 50 book.

Trainer: "... on his best form he could be progressive."

I don't know if that's code for anything but his hurdler to follow is/was Tellherthename, which I backed in the Betfair last week not knowing it was his nominee: "... a lovely horse with a big future."
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Same race - I've taken 25/1 Hidden Heroics

Skelton has three entries and, of the other two, Flegmatik has won his target race and Shan Blue was off for his life on Saturday there so might not run. HH only needs four to come out, which looks very likely, so I'm working on the assumption - perhaps a big assumption - that HH has been trained for this all season. He's been held up in rear in most of his races but ran from the front in his career best run at Cheltenham last year. I'm not convinced he'd make the cut for any of the festival handicaps off his mark so if they are going for one there he'd probably need to win this anyway. All ifs and buts but I'd rather take 25s about an ifs-and-buts situation than 2/5.
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Kicking myself black and blue.

I'd thought the card I was looking at this morning was the five-day decs.

Turns out I'd jumped the gun and the horse hasn't been declared :mad:

Bad enough throwing money away on one that runs badly but this was a schoolboy error. Puts me on the back foot straight away for Saturday's punting and it's all my own stupid fault.
 
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I'd hold back until final declarations on that one, Euro.

Off his current mark he could be a plate horse for next month, and if he is, he won't be going for this.

Speaking of the Plate, the one who beat Tahmuras last time, Crebilly, must also be interesting, given he only went up a pound for that win at Exeter.

If I was taking on the fav this Saturday, I'd be looking at Le Patron, who Gary Moore has said will likely skip cheltenham next month, so you'd think he's a likely runner here. That wasn't his true showimg last time. I reckon he's better than that.
 
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Le Patron was on the go from early October, and won those three races on the bounce. I just think he didn't put his best foot forward the last day. The fact they aren't giving him a couple months off the track tells me he should be ready to go this time. That last run is keeping his price honest, is one way of looking at it.

Either that, or he turns out to be just another horse I thought had potential that turned out to be shite.

I've had more than my fair share of these this season, so if you want to be against him, be against him, by all means.
 
Surprising. I didn't back Tahmuras unfortunately.

EDIT. The above rectified. He's 4s at Powers and I'd have him fav or second in behind Le Patron. The Hendo mare's form is nowhere near the required standard and I'm not keen on Blow my Wad.
 
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Back in May 2022 on the "ones to follow " thread I put up SKYCUTTER when Ben Curtis hurt his shoulder and I had thought it was a non trier.
Runs in the Morebattle on Saturday now trained by Skelton (won last time,didn't register with me) so off 121 I've took 10/1 boosted to 11/1 ladbrokes.
Not entered at Cheltenham.

I see Nicky Henderson is going for the bonus with Under Controll.so must be respected.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Same race - I've taken 25/1 Hidden Heroics

Skelton has three entries and, of the other two, Flegmatik has won his target race and Shan Blue was off for his life on Saturday there so might not run. HH only needs four to come out, which looks very likely, so I'm working on the assumption - perhaps a big assumption - that HH has been trained for this all season. He's been held up in rear in most of his races but ran from the front in his career best run at Cheltenham last year. I'm not convinced he'd make the cut for any of the festival handicaps off his mark so if they are going for one there he'd probably need to win this anyway. All ifs and buts but I'd rather take 25s about an ifs-and-buts situation than 2/5.
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Runs in the Grimthorpe tomorrow (16/1). Sickness insurance a must...
 
Outsider said:
Back in May 2022 on the "ones to follow " thread I put up SKYCUTTER when Ben Curtis hurt his shoulder and I had thought it was a non trier.
Runs in the Morebattle on Saturday now trained by Skelton (won last time,didn't register with me) so off 121 I've took 10/1 boosted to 11/1 ladbrokes.
Not entered at Cheltenham.

I see Nicky Henderson is going for the bonus with Under Controll.so must be respected.
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A profit.ended up 7/2 fav.
 
Desert Orchid said:
[Hidden Heroics] ... Runs in the Grimthorpe tomorrow (16/1). Sickness insurance a must...
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Looked like it was struggling in the ground. Never getting into the race from early and eventually pulled up. I didn't expect Doncaster to get as much rain as it did.

A lot of the form today won't be repeated until the conditions are repeated.
 
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Willie Mullins to win the British trainers title. 10/1

After he has trained 14 winners and ten placed at the Cheltenham Festival,the Midlands grand national and the Grand National with Stattler he won't be far away.
 
Currently, approx
£2220k Nicholls
£298k Mullins

Winners money
£250k Champion Hurdle
£225k Champion Chase
£350k Gold Cup
£500k Grand National
plus
Cheltenham novice hurdles - about £75k, novice chases - up to £100k, mares races - about £60k.

Certainly conceivable that, if he has a successful Cheltenham, WPM sends horses to Aintree and/or Sandown that would otherwise have gone to Fairyhouse and Punchestown.
 
One horse I got right for the right race, the Breeders Cup Turf, after about 3000 pages of this thread, Rebels Romance, has gone and won the Sheema Classic at 28/1. How he went off that price I'll never know. He won the same race August Rodin won in America last year in 2022, yet Rebels goes off 28/1. Needless to say I didn't even look at the race or know he was running. I wonder what next for him though.
 
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Marb said:
One horse I got right for the right race, the Breeders Cup Turf, after about 3000 pages of this thread, Rebels Romance, has gone and won the Sheema Classic at 28/1. How he went off that price I'll never know. He won the same race August Rodin won in America last year in 2022, yet Rebels goes off 28/1. Needless to say I didn't even look at the race or know he was running. I wonder what next for him though.
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I was thinking of you when I backed him early at 20/1, kicking myself for not going in again.
 
Well done, Sim. They must have trained him to sit closer to the pace, as his Breeders Cup Turf was won from being held up last. Good piece of training from Charlie Appleby I reckon.
 
I'm keeping an eye on whether trainer Lucinda Russell enters her unexposed and improving chaser Traprain Law in the 2 mile handicap chase at the Grand National meeting. This horse is 2/4 over fences, and both times he had cut in the ground he was impressive.

I am kind of hoping he is entered and he gets his soft or heavy ground, as I think off 138 he'd have a major chance and be one of the best bets of the meeting. Maybe wishful thinking, re the ground though.

Edit. Looks like he'll get his ground. I await the entries.
 
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With all this rain knocking about it's nice to see next week's Craven meeting has the word good in it for the forecast ground. It's mainly a fill your tracker type meeting for me but a couple of layers have priced up the Earl of Sefton and Ottoman Fleet looks worth a go at 6/1. He loves the track, his Measured Time Meydan form looks decent and aside from an admittedly solid looking fav in Royal Rhyme it's not an especially looking tough race.
 
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