Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Outsider said:
Virgin bet hcap sandown Saturday

Dual identity 25/1 not certain that 1m2f at sandown suits but he might need a penalty to get in the Cambridgeshire.
At that price I have to have a bet.
9nly bet 365 so far.
Click to expand...

Simple old game really! Well done Outsider brilliant call.
 
Thanks lads.that was nice .I dont know if he just gets a penalty for the Cambridgeshire or whether he gets reassessed.
Still I'm happy with my 80/1 for the Cambridgeshire.#646 longshot thread.
 
Last edited:
Outsider said:
Thanks lads.that was nice .I dont know if he just gets a penalty for the Cambridgeshire or whether he gets reassessed.
Still I'm happy with my 80/1 for the Cambridgeshire.#646 longshot thread.
Click to expand...

Confession - I'd assumed the weights for the Cambs were already out so the win today would only incur a penalty (4lbs?) but they're not till Monday so this run will be assessed and I can see him going up 10lbs. That would very much temper my enthusiasm for his chances there.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Confession - I'd assumed the weights for the Cambs were already out so the win today would only incur a penalty (4lbs?) but they're not till Monday so this run will be assessed and I can see him going up 10lbs. That would very much temper my enthusiasm for his chances there.
Click to expand...

That is a worry.
 
Outsider said:
Thanks lads.that was nice .I dont know if he just gets a penalty for the Cambridgeshire or whether he gets reassessed.
Still I'm happy with my 80/1 for the Cambridgeshire.#646 longshot thread.
Click to expand...

That reminded me that I'd thought I'd followed you in, which I had. I've cashed out my 33s bet for a 50% profit.

I might think about cashing out the B365 bet but I'll now wait until we see what the handicapper does about today.

Edit - they're offering a cashout for a 350% profit on the total stake but I'll hold off until the weights.
 
Last edited:
Thursday night. Wolverhampton 8.45 - I reckon Monsieur Kodi could be on a steep upward curve and provided he handles the all weather, which he hasn't raced on for two years, can take all the beating, for trainer Richard Fahey who is in good form.

Some of you will remember Monsieur Kodi at Goodwood, when he won with cut in the ground on his penultimate start. He then ran what I think was a highly creditable sixth at Ripon, in the race Summerghand just got touched off in.

Monsieur Kodi placed at Wolverhampton as a novice, while his other all weather runs were average. That was two years ago though, before he was gelded, and he's improved a lot since then.

I reckon this horse will likely be rated in the mid 90's by the end of the season, so this Wolverhampton race is well within his capability.

He holds an entry for the Ayr Gold Cup, but on his current rating the Silver Cup would be his most likely destination after this Wolverhampton race. It does seems as if he wants cut in the ground now on turf though, so lets see about Ayr options nearer the time.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
(Re Dual Identity)

That reminded me that I'd thought I'd followed you in, which I had. I've cashed out my 33s bet for a 50% profit.

I might think about cashing out the B365 bet but I'll now wait until we see what the handicapper does about today.

Edit - they're offering a cashout for a 350% profit on the total stake but I'll hold off until the weights.
Click to expand...

I completely forgot to check this situation until a moment ago.

It looks like Dual Identity has been raised 8lbs for winning the other day and gets into the race off 95, needing just two to defect to make the cut. That's 99.9% likely to happen so he'll be in the same mark as when clear of his side in last year's race so I'm going to let the 80/1 bet ride.

Edit

This is a screenshot of the top ratings on RPRs. With a max field of 35, I'll be surprised if anything with a card number of 50 or more gets in but it leaves a few clearly over-priced relative to their RPRs on whose scale 120 or more would have a winning chance in an average year.

Screenshot (33).png
 
Last edited:
When you look at how Nashwa has finished her race in the Irish Champion, of the two entries she holds on Champions Day at Ascot at the end of this season, I actually think there must be a good chance John and Thady Gosden will choose the 10F Champion Stakes for Nashwa as the race.

They have Inspiral for the mile event, and though that mile might look an easier assignment for Nashwa at this stage, which she is best price 6/1 for, I reckon Nashwa's best chance will be in the Champion.

She is 20/1 top priced for the 10F event with Paddy Power and Betfair. I don't currently have an account with these anymore after a falling out, but I wouldn't put anyone off. I think she could run well on the day, in theory anyway.

It's not often the bookies go a shorter price on the wrong target, especially on the flat, but this is one scenario where I think they might have the odds the wrong way around. Especially Paddy Power and Betfair who seem to be double the price for the Champion than anyone else.

Just a thought.
 
Last edited:
Inspiral's target is the Sun Chariot possibly followed by Breeders Cup according to the latest interview from Gosden.
 
I haven't been following this (or any!) thread too closely of late so apologies if anyone has already mentioned this one in the Ayr Gold Cup - Juan Les Pins, 14/1.

He went up 8lbs for finishing second to Lezoo in the Hopeful Stakes but gets in here off his old mark of 98. That alone should have him disputing favouritism so 14/1 is arguably generous. I've taken the bet win only.

That's not to say I think he'll win. I still fancy my other bets Summerghand, Rohaan and Mr Wagyu are better-handicapped but I want JLP onside at those odds.

I'll probably have a couple of rags at long odds and extra place terms nearer the time.
 
Marb said:
Thursday night. Wolverhampton 8.45 - I reckon Monsieur Kodi could be on a steep upward curve and provided he handles the all weather, which he hasn't raced on for two years, can take all the beating, for trainer Richard Fahey who is in good form.

Some of you will remember Monsieur Kodi at Goodwood, when he won with cut in the ground on his penultimate start. He then ran what I think was a highly creditable sixth at Ripon, in the race Summerghand just got touched off in.

Monsieur Kodi placed at Wolverhampton as a novice, while his other all weather runs were average. That was two years ago though, before he was gelded, and he's improved a lot since then.

I reckon this horse will likely be rated in the mid 90's by the end of the season, so this Wolverhampton race is well within his capability.

He holds an entry for the Ayr Gold Cup, but on his current rating the Silver Cup would be his most likely destination after this Wolverhampton race. It does seems as if he wants cut in the ground now on turf though, so lets see about Ayr options nearer the time.
Click to expand...

Think I might just stick with this fella on Saturday in the Silver Cup. The more ease in the ground in the better.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't been following this (or any!) thread too closely of late so apologies if anyone has already mentioned this one in the Ayr Gold Cup - Juan Les Pins, 14/1.

He went up 8lbs for finishing second to Lezoo in the Hopeful Stakes but gets in here off his old mark of 98. That alone should have him disputing favouritism so 14/1 is arguably generous. I've taken the bet win only.

That's not to say I think he'll win. I still fancy my other bets Summerghand, Rohaan and Mr Wagyu are better-handicapped but I want JLP onside at those odds.
Click to expand...

JLP 10s tops now and as low as 7/1 in quite a number of places. That's pretty much where he should be in the betting.
 
Back
Top