Arc 2016

gus said:
Credit to Suny for banging the Makahiki drum at an early stage and anyone on at the 16/1 available at the time is in an excellent position going into the race.
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Yes, I'm one of the lucky ones who took the 16/1. I'm obviously happy enough to have beaten the likely sp by some way but I'm not convinced he can beat Postponed's A-game.

Being confined to cooncil TV I won't see the race but I'm not going to bother too much about that.
 
i was going to back Postponed but the way the market has gone has led me to Harzand. His last race has to be written off and Weld wouldn't run him if he wasn't right. He's not spectacular but I don't think there is a superstar here and at the price, he's my e/w bet.

FWIW i think Found will become the new Youmzain/Flintshire.
 
Postponed would need a few lbs in hand of the field to overcome the the 5yo negative..on RPR's he hasn't got enough in hand imo...wouldn't surprise me if he was out of the first 3 tbh
 
EC1 said:
Postponed would need a few lbs in hand of the field to overcome the the 5yo negative..on RPR's he hasn't got enough in hand imo...wouldn't surprise me if he was out of the first 3 tbh
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It's all about opinions, of course.

One of the really great things about Betfair is that you can back that particular view with hard cash.

Are you tempted, EC? He's round about 1.7 at present.
 
gus said:
It's all about opinions, of course.

One of the really great things about Betfair is that you can back that particular view with hard cash.

Are you tempted, EC? He's round about 1.7 at present.
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if i can't find something to back in the next hour i'll just do a win lay on him for an interest in the race..the "wouldn't be surprised" isn't really pointing me to the place lay...and i hate place laying because even when something has a negative it ends up getting a place...I'd rather back the winner though anyway ..watching the Arc just wanting a horse to lose takes shine off compared with backing the winner

i'll have a bite to eat and see if owt stands out
 
Been looking at last 10 years worth of AOB runners in the ARC..ignoring the obvious pace makers ...his opponent beaten IV is 1.11..shows me that his record in the race is better than many think. Allied to that is that 4yo's have the best beat opponent IV in the race....

3yo: 0.9900000(88 runners)
4yo: 1.0700000(61 runners)
5yo: 0.8100000(32 runners)
6yo+:0.9900000(15 runners)

points to Found being the one i'm backing.

if she runs above par to a similar level that past 4yo's have run to..then it makes her tough to beat imo
 
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Below 1:36 for a 1600m race at Chantilly is plenty quick and 2yo's to boot. Horses that need cut will struggle today.
 
if you have a 5yo in this..make sure its Sea The Stars level to win ..its hard to win at 5yo....nice to see 4yo's winning..its saves the wfa pain..and confirms the 4yo stat
 
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ignoring anything else....that 2nd last time was immense,,champion stakes form is always strong

always go against the crowd they say..3yo are favoured....AOB has a poor record..no on both counts
 
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Great result all the way around. Again, those age stats are really excellent digging, much appreciated EC
 
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what a lovely day Brendan..hope you made a few bob and enjoyed it there..i've got a lovely guinness in front of me and the fridge has a few more in:)

tikka misala shortly..yum yum
 
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Thoroughly deserved by the filly - and don't they often improve in the autumn!
 
Well done Found backers, what a great training performance. The winners have been very gettable today, I think I like this meeting at Chantilly.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
First time since 1975 no 3 y o's in the first four, wonder if change of venue had any influence ?
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3yo's clearly disadvantaged:)..maybe they should have their allowance increased..oh no..its being reduced based on handicaps:D

you couldn't make this stuff up...recency bias gone daft each time a 3yo wins a big race...those who think 3yo's are at an advantage need to take a closer look at what is really happening

i laugh to mesen on a regular basis with some of the stuff i read about this whole wfa stuff...it needs looking at closely before a big decision is made..the BHA are way out on this

4yo's do better than 3yo in the Arc..but most people believe the opposite..just based on "wins"..as that is most obvious and lazy avenue to pursue..its wrong..but never mind...what do people on forums know?..we are morons when you hear the media geniuses talk about us

talking of morons...in the last week Mick Fitzgerald has marked himself up as a proper village idiot...but he gets a top job..unreal
 
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