Arc 2016

EC1 said:
don't know Simmo..i only really looked at the age stat..then dabbled with AOB ones...i would imagine it favours females ok though..
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No worries - I remember SteveM going on about the F&M allowances being overly generous at this time of year, which was borne out by winners vs runners (I think it was the year of Solemio winning too). Just wondered how that compared with the additional analysis.
 
i'll have a look over next few days..will file away for next year..i'll post what i find

the allowance stuff to me don't wash much..the 3yo one..its fine imo...this year you won't see any mention of it..but when a 3yo wins thats all you see..its flawed imo..big mistake to change it

if a 4yo like Found can win..what would horses like Sea The Stars and other top 3yo do if they had been kept in training...3yo's "win" many arcs because the older brigade are usually leftovers

like i said though..wfagers will just go quiet this year..then jump out when next 3yo wins:)

its all a belief system in racing..so many things..if repeated often enough become "fact" i've found...for 40 years i've heard all the old chestnuts..but when you look at them in detail..they are just that
 
School of thought says Fillies and Mares allowance in Group 1's should be done away with, we've had Zarkava,Danedream, Solivia, Treve twice and Found since 2008 making 6 wins in 8, but do the figures give a false impression ?
 
Diamond Geezer said:
School of thought says Fillies and Mares allowance in Group 1's should be done away with, we've had Zarkava,Danedream, Solivia, Treve twice and Found since 2008 making 6 wins in 8, but do the figures give a false impression ?
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the main problem in horse racing..is recency bias...you can see that just with horse form

many big races go though phases of a certain age or gender winning...if the BHA watch someone toss a coin 20 times and it came up heads every time..perfectly possible..they would want to give tails an advantage..its a flaw in thinking imo

i will look at the fillies over the last 20 years and see what transpires

thing is..what i said about 3yo's when they win..wfagers saying its unfair..its same whn a filly wins..recency again..ooh filly allowance is too big...if a male wins it for the next 10 years there won't be a mention of it

recency bias is rife in horse racing
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
School of thought says Fillies and Mares allowance in Group 1's should be done away with, we've had Zarkava,Danedream, Solivia, Treve twice and Found since 2008 making 6 wins in 8, but do the figures give a false impression ?
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I think they do give a false impression
Danedream and Treve didn't exactly scramble home under a weight advantage-They Absolutely blitzed there respective fields because they were brilliant and far superior animals.
As far as Solemia goes, the ground was appalling that year and she benefited from clearly handling it best and of Orfevre throwing down the toilet
Let's not forget That in between the years of all these fillies winning that Golden Horn, Workforce and Sea The Stars won the race for same reason that Treve and Danedream won there races-that they were the best horse on the day.
 
That is about the size of it Fonz.
San San, Allez France, ivanjica, Three Troikas ,Detroit, Gold River, Akiyda, All Along were all fillies in a twelve year filly blitz 1972/83 when colts may as well have stayed at home; then a filly hardly won the race in twenty years bar Urban Sea at 62/1 ! and Zarkava of course .
Swings and roundabouts; the best on the day usually wins; end of.

Course record but this is first 12 furlong All age group 1 on track since ??

French Derby dropped in trip 2004/2005 ?
 
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In fairness, EC1, the BHA managed to persuade all the other main racing authorities in Europe to agree the adjustment to the wfa scale.

It's a hard one to get right though. If you look for too big a sample, going back over too long a time, you let other factors creep in, such as changes in breeding fashion (are the best colts going to stud at the end of their 3yo career), changes in breeding fashion (rise in popularity of US breds in the 70s), and changes in breeding fashion (Coolmore concentrating on breeding for middle distances, producing Sadlers Wells and then Galileo), not to mention all the other factors that evolve over a long period.
 
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Amazing the track record was broken when it was sloppy according to john gosden in the middle part of the track.F found and highland reel loved the going and oosg did amazing considering the surface. Definitely one of the great feats in sport.
 
They haven't had a big field group 1 at Chantilly over 12f since the Jockey Club distance was changed. Pre that date you'd have had loads of renewals on soft ground and others on decent going run at far less of a clip than today's race.
 
Back at hotel. Early thoughts, if you enjoy the Arc , make sure you get to it next year at chantilly. I can't recommend it enough. So much better than longchamp.
From personal point of view, me and betting partner had 40 euro wins in 2nd and 3rd races. 2 x 40 euro forecasts and then 3 euro e.w. Misha in the l'abbeye. Long story why!!

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk
 
simmo said:
No worries - I remember SteveM going on about the F&M allowances being overly generous at this time of year, which was borne out by winners vs runners (I think it was the year of Solemio winning too). Just wondered how that compared with the additional analysis.
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i've checked last 20 years..left out a few 250+ shots but there were 60+ fillies in the sample...IV = 1.28

So its fair to say..its the fillies allowance rather than the 3yo wfa that is possibly at play here..because as seen earlier.. 4yo's perform better than 3yo's on the IV's
 
that was all ages combined...i haven't saved it so can't check 3 or 4yo:rolleyes:

4yo's do better than 3yo's overall though.both genders....so i doubt whether filly is 3 or older would make a deal of difference tbh...fillies are more favoured overall in the race..so rather than messing with the wfa ..maybe they should look at the filly allowance

4yo in future will be more favoured than ever once the 3yo are penalised
 
I think we could be going OTT with questioning the fillies allowance, we could just be in a golden age for the fairer sex. In the 24 renewals prior to this golden age starting, with Zarkava, only one Arc went to the fairer sex.
 
thought i'd look in to this filly thing just using races here....if fillies thrive in the Autumn then it should show up.


In the last 10 years there have been 429 mixed gender Group 1,Group 2. Group 3 races..4525 runners

The average IV for all 4525 runners comes out at around 0.98.

All Distances All Months

Males000000.99
Females0000.95

10f+ September onwards

Males000000.99
Females0000.99

Fair to say there is a small improvement later in the season for the females over the longer distance.

Its possible that fillies need the allowance early season..but not so much later in the year looking at that
 
Euronymous said:
I think we could be going OTT with questioning the fillies allowance, we could just be in a golden age for the fairer sex. In the 24 renewals prior to this golden age starting, with Zarkava, only one Arc went to the fairer sex.
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before i deleted the data...i split it in two..just to check that very thing..i thought the same....but both 10 year periods were virtually identical..something like 1.27 to 1.32..so its not just the recent fillies that have run above their odds...it is over the whole 20 year period its happened. I was convinced that the recent ones were just better fillies..but apparently not

the only reason we think that recent ones are better..is that they actually won...this measure uses every runner to give us a clearer picture of above or below expectation....being favoured or not will show with all runners..whether they won or not
 
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Cheers EC1 - excellent bits of info to pop in the mental microwave for next year!

Haven't done any checking on this whatsoever, but the thought occurs to me that the Champion Stakes also seems to have more than it's fair share of female winners over the years.
 
simmo said:
Cheers EC1 - excellent bits of info to pop in the mental microwave for next year!

Haven't done any checking on this whatsoever, but the thought occurs to me that the Champion Stakes also seems to have more than it's fair share of female winners over the years.
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yes..we will look at that one..even going back to the nineties...fillies did well in this..there is something to this back end filly thing
 
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