Arc 2016
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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- May 2, 2003
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- 13,884
Dry week for Paris is forecast but wet on Saturday and Sunday
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Thought it was only at Chantilly for this year? Anyway, going for the weekend so someone post up the winner will you please. Lets face it, need a couple of winners now after Brexit
Unsure on the Arc but Trip To Rhodos will be worth an e/w bash in the Cadran.
EC1
On a break
Looking at which age group performs the best in the Arc would get most people..saying..ooh the wfa favours 3yo..they have an advantage...do they? Do older horses underperform?..easy enough to answer given a bit of analysis
It depends how you measure the performance..some will say..no 5yo has won since the early 80's..and to be fair just judged on winners that might be fair comment. I prefer to look at how every horse in the race each year has performed versus the chance it had and how many opponents it beat based on that price. This method is by far the best way i've seen to assess stats of any race.
Since 2004 we have a total of 196 horses ..lots of data there...that have run in the Arc..we know where they finished and we know how many of the oppo they should have beaten in each race because the market is..on average.. the best predictor we know of. Analysing each individual performance will show any bias towards an age group.
Using this method an IV of 1.00 is the benchmark figure for no bias....so any category having a less figure than that has performed worse than it should have..above that means ..better than it should..and so is at an advantage
3yo: 0.9900000(88 runners)
4yo: 1.0700000(61 runners)
5yo: 0.8100000(32 runners)
6yo+:0.9900000(15 runners)
from those figures its easy to see that 4yo's beat more opponents than they should do and it is in fact that age group who do best in the Arc..when compared to their actual chance of winning.
That doesn't mean they should win more..because winning first relies on being at a price where you can run above your odds and actually win. A 4yo might be 10/1..but will run probably like a 7/1 shot..beat more than it should ...but still lose.
what the figures show is that like this year where a 5yo is fav..Postponed.. he will need to run a few lbs better than the market suggests to win...not impossible obviously..but as has been seen over a number of years..in this age group you would need an exceptional 5yo to beat that under performance the 0.81 suggests its got make up...is Posponed exceptional?
32... 5yo horses have on average underperfomed to quite a degree to get that figure...even the 6yo's have run to expectations.
running to expectation is hidden data ... most people will look at wins and places..or say how unfair the wfa is etc..when in fact 3yo have no advantage whatsoever..if they did...they would all be beating the number of opponents benchmark and would be in the 1.30 to 1.50 range....whereas in reality 3yo's beat what the market suggests they should..no matter where they finish in this race.
I think Postponed is poor value..and must be taken on really
It depends how you measure the performance..some will say..no 5yo has won since the early 80's..and to be fair just judged on winners that might be fair comment. I prefer to look at how every horse in the race each year has performed versus the chance it had and how many opponents it beat based on that price. This method is by far the best way i've seen to assess stats of any race.
Since 2004 we have a total of 196 horses ..lots of data there...that have run in the Arc..we know where they finished and we know how many of the oppo they should have beaten in each race because the market is..on average.. the best predictor we know of. Analysing each individual performance will show any bias towards an age group.
Using this method an IV of 1.00 is the benchmark figure for no bias....so any category having a less figure than that has performed worse than it should have..above that means ..better than it should..and so is at an advantage
3yo: 0.9900000(88 runners)
4yo: 1.0700000(61 runners)
5yo: 0.8100000(32 runners)
6yo+:0.9900000(15 runners)
from those figures its easy to see that 4yo's beat more opponents than they should do and it is in fact that age group who do best in the Arc..when compared to their actual chance of winning.
That doesn't mean they should win more..because winning first relies on being at a price where you can run above your odds and actually win. A 4yo might be 10/1..but will run probably like a 7/1 shot..beat more than it should ...but still lose.
what the figures show is that like this year where a 5yo is fav..Postponed.. he will need to run a few lbs better than the market suggests to win...not impossible obviously..but as has been seen over a number of years..in this age group you would need an exceptional 5yo to beat that under performance the 0.81 suggests its got make up...is Posponed exceptional?
32... 5yo horses have on average underperfomed to quite a degree to get that figure...even the 6yo's have run to expectations.
running to expectation is hidden data ... most people will look at wins and places..or say how unfair the wfa is etc..when in fact 3yo have no advantage whatsoever..if they did...they would all be beating the number of opponents benchmark and would be in the 1.30 to 1.50 range....whereas in reality 3yo's beat what the market suggests they should..no matter where they finish in this race.
I think Postponed is poor value..and must be taken on really
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Thought Postponed represented poor value before you put this up but that just cements it. Excellent stuff as per usual EC.
If Makahiki is 2/1 on the PMU it will represent at least as poor value. Lemaire in the plate is a surefire no go for me.
I'll surely find something to play on value grounds on the day as I am honestly struggling to find something based on current prices. I'll be looking at Found and New Bay on the PMU. Already on Silverwave ew at huge prices but the ground looks to have gone against him.
Really think Mecca's Angel is vulnerable as well as the ground promises to be pretty quick. Who knows they might even scratch her on the day. The Harris 3yo blitzed the field at the track in a record time and I expect him to do the same on Sunday. 9/1 ap will be my bet of the day.
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Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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- May 2, 2003
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Dettori rides Order Of St George
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Good piece EC. I've said time and time again the only adv the 3yos have in the race is that they tend to be campaigned with the Arc in mind more than their older peers.
i think meccas wins hands Down, 3 lengths, the only one faster than her since dayjur was black caviar.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,629
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,629
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The rain has fucked me all season. It would be strange for that to change now.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Hope you have a good and successful trip, Dave.
Please let us know how you get on, Dave G, I'm curious to know how well the venue will be able to cope with a crowd of Arc dimensions.
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Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Good luck Dave - enjoy the trip.
fonz
At the Start
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- Nov 5, 2012
- Messages
- 2,401
Place only on New Bay has to be the bet imo
The IC was the perfect prep and he's obviously been trained for this
The number crunchers won't like it but I'm sorely tempted to place lay Postponed- fair play to him he's been imperious this season and danced every dance but I've a feeling it may just catch up with him.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
On Found and New Bay ante-post. Also TGG but pretty much written off that bet.
Spectre is overpriced in the Foret. He has to overcome a bad draw and a reduction in distance but his form is very solid and I'm prepared to take a chance at 10s, especially with the ground likely to be against Limato.
Spectre is overpriced in the Foret. He has to overcome a bad draw and a reduction in distance but his form is very solid and I'm prepared to take a chance at 10s, especially with the ground likely to be against Limato.
Credit to Suny for banging the Makahiki drum at an early stage and anyone on at the 16/1 available at the time is in an excellent position going into the race. How much he had in hand in his trial is anyone's guess but Midterm is a decent horse and Doha Dream didn't do anything yesterday to let the form down.
I'm on Found at the same price but I had a saver on Postponed earlier in the week.
Postponed and Found look very closely matched. At the start of the season O'Brien talked in terms of giving Found a classic Arc prep with a mid-season break and Royal Ascot bypassed. That didn't quite materialise but she did have two months off after the POW and she was very easy to back for the Yorkshire Oaks. She certainly ran like she needed that race and her Leopardstown run last time out represented a big step forward. For me, it represents very strong form indeed, at least on a par with Postponed's Juddmonte.
So, she goes into the race in the form of her life but my worry with her is whether the race will go her way. The draw's not a terrible one, despite suggestions to the contrary, but she'll need luck in the straight and I just wonder whether Postponed's uncomplicated nature and tactical speed might mean that he's gone beyond recall by the time she hits full stride.
I'm on Found at the same price but I had a saver on Postponed earlier in the week.
Postponed and Found look very closely matched. At the start of the season O'Brien talked in terms of giving Found a classic Arc prep with a mid-season break and Royal Ascot bypassed. That didn't quite materialise but she did have two months off after the POW and she was very easy to back for the Yorkshire Oaks. She certainly ran like she needed that race and her Leopardstown run last time out represented a big step forward. For me, it represents very strong form indeed, at least on a par with Postponed's Juddmonte.
So, she goes into the race in the form of her life but my worry with her is whether the race will go her way. The draw's not a terrible one, despite suggestions to the contrary, but she'll need luck in the straight and I just wonder whether Postponed's uncomplicated nature and tactical speed might mean that he's gone beyond recall by the time she hits full stride.
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