Arkle

T

trackside528

At the Start
Joined
Apr 30, 2006
Messages
5,377
Is it just me or do Araldur and Free World not look overpriced for this at 25's and 20's respectively?

Time of the Henry VII reads very well in the context of the Tingle Creek and, to my mind, it looks the best novice chase run over two so far this season.

Araldur might just lack the pace to win an Arkle (though the usual end-to-end gallop of the Arkle and Cheltenham should suit) whilst I'm not convinced Free World's style of racing is ideal for a race like the Arkle, but could someone please tell me how either are bigger than Forpadydefeckingplasterer?

Elsewhere, Made in Taipan was impressive at Navan today. Probably has to step up again to get involved at the Festival, but looks the best of an admittedly average Irish bunch.

EDIT: upon closer inspection, Araldur is a general 14-16/1 shot, with the notable exception of Coral, who go 25's (has TDK lost his rag? :D)

Made in Taipan available at 25's as well; how Forpadydeplasterer is a best-price 20/1 shot is beyond me..
 
Last edited:
Clash of Tatenen and Made In Taipan at Leopardstown should be interesting. An uninspiring bunch so far bar the Nicholls horse. The staying novices look much stronger.
 
I thought this was going to be a thread about whether he was as good as Master Minded.
 
I actually got today's race right to within about a length of the winning distance, (for a change) but was left with the impression hadn't seen an Arkle winner until I got home and did the number crunching. I'm still of that opinion, but I'm less convinced than I was a few hours ago.


Araldur has run 102.60 off 11.2 and was a mere one second slower than Masterminded would complete the C&D in, half an hour later!!! Off an Arkle weight of 11.7, this projects to 98.05 using 1.1Ib = 1 length at 16F’s. This means he’s improved by 6.50L’s on his Warwick run (probably due to having to run a finish) and Free World has similarly improved by about 7.75L’s on Sandown (I reckon about a length of that was due to a McCoy drive in the finish). My class pars are about 10 years old now, and obviously science moves on etc and some of the more historical ratings can expect to be overtaken with increased regularity, but 98.05 would have been good enough to beat Or Royal (97.60) and Champleve (94.70). The average Arkle winner has run 102.60 (on my records) over the last 12 years, which puts Araldur 4.5L’s off the required standard, but perhaps more tellingly the last two winners have run 111.25 and 110.20, which is starting to threaten Moscows high water mark of 112.45, so I'm not sure what value an average based over a 12 year period is worth. In the last 5 years this average has risen to 104.80, which puts 6.75L's off the benchmark.

Fair Along won this a couple of years back carrying 10.13 for an adjusted figure of 95.98, which makes today’s performance 2L’s quicker. He would go onto finish second of course in the Arkle, although you could probably argue quite legitmately that this owed as much to Twist Magic and Don’t Push It falling. I think this is probably a fair reflection of where Araldur is, although Fair Along won by 10 L’s and wasn’t necessarily booted through the finish.

I suspect that Free World probably has the greater tactical speed, and that Araldur will need further in time and to go right handed to be seen at his best (King George 2010:)) but a fast run Arkle with a stiffer hill than Sandown’s might bring him into play yet, although at this stage I’m more persuaded by the lousy record of Henry winners (only Contraband) and his propensity to jump out to the right is likely to make him a place candidate, although his trainers recent success with French breds in that target race has to be respected.
 
Last edited:
Cheers, Warbler. My first impression was that I hadn't seen an Arkle winner as well tbh, though I certainly think they are too big given that it looks a weak enough contest (certainly not up to the standard of the last couple of years it wouldn't seem) and this looks the strongest form of any 2 mile novice chase run so far this season.
 
Warbs, are you aware that they didn't jump the Pond Fence in the Tingle Creek?

It was by-passed due to low sun.

I'm not sure how that would affect your time comparisons.
 
Made in Taipan at 25s with PP for me at the moment. He has yet to be put to the sword but gives the impression that he will progress massively and he prefers going left handed and stays well.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Warbs, are you aware that they didn't jump the Pond Fence in the Tingle Creek?

It was by-passed due to low sun.

I'm not sure how that would affect your time comparisons.
Click to expand...

It doesn't make that much difference I believe (although I ahd forgotten about it). If anyhting I suspect it would discriminate against the novices, as you tend to lose something like half a second in the air, and by passing oit on its right as you approach it, it offers a seemingly more direct route to the finishing straight. One for GoogleEarth to guess at.
 
King has said that he doesn't think Araldur will go for the Arkle; he believes he's not an Arkle type and will want further.
 
Shadow Leader said:
King has said that he doesn't think Araldur will go for the Arkle; he believes he's not an Arkle type and will want further.
Click to expand...

Did he not say that with a wry smile though, Shads, before admitting that he's changed his mind before?

I didn't see the interview FWIW, just going on what I heard. I fully expect him to be there anyway; he's hardly going to run him in the Grand Annual, is he?

Edit: On second thought, if connections are willing to think slightly outside the seemingly all-consuming Festival box, the Powers Gold Cup might suit him nicely.
 
Last edited:
I’m more persuaded by the lousy record of Henry winners (only Contraband)
Click to expand...

Warbler...why does that matter?

Aradlur is an excellent prospect...far more so than Free World IMOd and im suprised they are both so close in the market. King will brush up Aradlur's jumping im sure and if he had put in a more steady round on Sat, he would surely have won more comfortably and be alot shorter for th arkle. Hes got a lot of scope, in great hands and showed a fantastic attitude. Definately one to follow
 
I just feel that certain winners of certain races tend to be on specified development schedules. If you track it back in terms of when they're introduced, how many races they have (and where they take them in) and then throw in their prep run too, you tend to see certain windows (expressed in weeks usually of about 3 long) where a horse that is successfully campaigned for a certain target takes a certain route/ programme. The Henry VIII has been run now for nearly 30 years and is supposed to be the premier 2 mile novice trial. Where as its provided the winner a few times, only Contraband has done the Henry/ Arkle double (and you could argue he was lucky to keep the Arkle, as Ashley Brook might have been the winner in few peoples eyes)

Colin, having mucked about with GoogleEarth it would appear that the more diect line going into the home straight at Sandown, actually involves jumping the Pond Fence (slightyl to my surprise). Bypassing it only appears to put between 2.5 and 5.5 yds on the race distance though. In reality, this extra distance would probably be more than wiped out by the time in the air and any slight loss of momentum measuring the fence prior to its jumping and getting away from it I'd have thought? The overall effect would be negligable, though I do agree with Eddie Freemantle that the issue needs looking at as the Pond fence is the courses signature fence and it sits dead in line with the sun in early December at about 14.30 in the afternoon. I'd have thought they could split the two chases with the handicap hurdles race?

My gut reaction is that Araldur needs further, but then I'm also of the opinion that to see out a good 2 miles at Cheltenham where the pace is quicker and the hill more punishing a horse needs to be capable of getting further than the bare minimum. King took in the same race with Araldur at Warwick that VPU did, and he also ran MWDS in the Henry. Given that conventional thought was that MWDS needed further the 2 miles, and yet King turned him out to win a fast Arkle, I'd be surprised if this isn't gnawing away at him somewhere. The RP's spotlight for the Henry VIII was badly off target mind you, describing Araldur as a "handicapper" and saying that he was "flattered by his 17L winning margin at Warwick" as it involved the odds on shot tiring. What I suspect happened is that Araldur just kept on as a top horse does, unfortunately the 5/1 that spotlight put up on their tissue was never sighted on saturday.

It's not as if they'd be any other obvious Festival targets for him anyway, as the handicapper will muller him for the Jewson now, and the SAC would be an even less desirable option for a 5yo. The same issue about trip resurfaces for the Grand Annual, albeit half a furlong further, and unless they by pass Cheltenham altogether, I can't see what they can do in truth.
 
Last edited:
I just feel that certain winners of certain races tend to be on specified development schedules
Click to expand...

Thats might be true, but there has to be a firm explanation for why a race 3 1/2 months away could in any way be a negative, for me to take any interest. As it stands, the statistical negativity (for waht its worth) is just one of those things
 
Well, Alan King was adamant -- at least as adamant as it's possible to be 3 months before the event -- that Araldur will not be running in the Arkle. He felt the horse would be taken off its feet and at home has never shown the speed of a horse like My Way de Solzen.
 
He was far from "adamant", michael o.

In fact, he said that Araldur would "obviously get an Arkle entry", and that he had "been known to change his mind", whilst grinning from ear-to-ear.

The Arkle is the only possible race for him at the Festival, because he's almost certainly handicapped out of the Jewson and Grand Annual, almost certainly won't get home in the Sun Alliance, and almost certainly won't be asked to take-on the likes of Tidal Bay and stable-mate VPU in the RyanAir.
 
Grasshopper said:
He was far from "adamant", michael o.

In fact, he said that Araldur would "obviously get an Arkle entry", and that he had "been known to change his mind", whilst grinning from ear-to-ear.
Click to expand...

Pretty much what I heard, Grasshopper.

Doubt he'll give the Powers Gold Cup much thought either.
 
A bit of additional stamina is an advantage in Championship 2 mile races. Not only do you need to sustain a strong gallop for longer, you also have the not inconsiderable issue of an uphill finish. Nicholls is on record as saying Free World was purchased with winning the Arkle in mind, so having turned over the supposed Nicholls horse, King would be stupid not to give Araldur a shot at the Arkle given the lack of alternatives. Tidal Bay, MWDS, Tuitchev, Azertyuiop, and Flagship Uberallaes all won races at 18F+ en route to a successful Arkle tilt, and Champleve won a hurdles race at 21F. VPU and Moscow Flyer would later go on to win at 2 and a half, so if anything, evidence of the ability to see a trip out, or the idea that a horse would get further, should be viewed as a positive on balance.
 
I'm going only on what I read in the RP, so I didn't see the ear to ear grin!

Didn't he mention possibly going to Liverpool for the 2 1/2 miler instead? [Edit - it appears I imagined that bit!!!]
 
Last edited:
Having dug at it a bit further Clive, there's probably an altogether more obvious answer. Sandown doesn't drain as well as Cheltenham. December tends to turn up softer ground than mid March. Look at the times run by respective Henry and Tingle winners, and divide them by two to equalise them into mile aggregates. Apply a respective class par of say 1.9 (I'm awarding honorary grade 1 status to the race) for the novice, and 1.1 for the grade 1 chaser and you'll get an indication of what the ground was like

Dines +1.50 & Direct Route +0.75 = +1.12
Decoupage +2.20 & Flagship Uberallaes +0.55 = +1.37
Fondmort -1.15 & Flagship Uberallaes -1.55 = -1.35
Impek +2.40 & Cenkos +0.95 = +1.65
Thisthatandtother +2.27 & Moscow Flyer +2.75 = +2.51
Contraband -0.20 & Moscow Flyer +1.00 = +0.40
Racing Demon -5.65 & Kauto Star -6.80 = -6.22
Fair Along -4.60 & Kauto Star -4.50 = -4.55
Marodima -6.22 & Twist Magic -5.68 = -5.95
Araldur -1.60 & Masterminded -1.90 = -1.75

Admittedly we're only using 2 high qulity races to set variance on the chase course only, so there's a potential issue there, but if we assueme zero to be perfect good ground and perform a split along the lines of red and black going corrections, then there's the hints of a correlation

Minus going

Fondmort - 5th
Racing Demon - 7th
Fair Along - 2nd (a bit lucky, could easily have been fourth)
Marodima - 9th

Positive going

Dines - 2nd in the Grand Annual (no disgrace in that?)
Decoupage - 3rd
Impek - 2nd
Thisthatandtother - fell at the 2nd, so can't really conclude anything regardign what might or might not have happened
Contraband - won

The upshot, is that when a winner of the Henry VIII has had ground at Sandown similar to what they're likely to encounter at Cheltenham, then on completed starts they're 2,3,2,1 where as when they've had softer ground than what they'd encounter at Cheltenham they're 5,7,2,9.

Now that's a bit too simplistic I'd accept, and at -1.35 you'd still say Fondmorts ground would have been on the slow side of good, by the time you set a going correction against the card, they'd be a good chance that this got a bit slower still. Racing Demon's, Fair Along's, and Marodima's going would be at least very soft and verging towards heavyish. To some extent this might account for MWDS's ability to reverse Sandown running with Fair Along, as the two races were held on significantly different going (take no notice of Claisse's 'Soft', MWDS beat standard time in the Arkle - you can't do that on proper soft ground at a top track where standards have been set by the best horses in history).

It's possible therefore that the balance of likelihoods is that Sandown winners will much more frequently encounter softer going and are therefore putting up performances in winning which are of less relevance than the bare result would suggest.

The idea of when an Arkle horse debuts is also quite interesting, as there's two sets of 12 days towards the end of October, and the end of November stretching into the first week of December that accounts for 8 of the last 10 winners. If you combine this with a 3 week window around the last week of January and the first two of February you'll pull in about 50% of winners, any horse appearing on both lists is worth a second look I suppose
 
Last edited:
The same point is made all the time about Irish novices, Pandorama being the latest example. Out-gruelling rivals on heavy ground is not a very reliable indicator of the aptitudes needed for Cheltenham.
 
How does that compare to this year's renewal, Warbs?

The ground didn't look all that bad to me, but I note the RP "time-based ground" has the card down as soft.
 
As I said Tracks, my estimates in this thread are pretty crude because they're confined to just the two races, although in some cases you can actually generate a more accurate figure by limiting the sample, as introducing the full card can deflect away from what could be an otherwise reliable barometer. FWIW, I made it -3.90 on the Friday (Soft) and -2.12 on the Saturday (Good to Soft). I'd be inclined to treat this years renewal with a degree of caution therefore, but wouldn't dismiss it out of hand

Picking up Grey's point, if there's one race that exhibits this notion of taking form from inappropriate races in terms of going and how they're run, then its the Supreme Novices. Year after year we seem to see highly touted good things winning in heavy ground from a slow pace and then sprinting clear in the final two furlongs. Invariably these visually impressive performances see the winner installed as favourite or very prominent in the betting, for a race which in all probability will bear no resemblence to the one which they've advertised their credentials in. I'm not keeping a log of performances running concurrently this year (too much effort) but will back calculate the key principals nearer the time, but so far both Clay Hollister and Hurricane Fly fit this profile of being vulnerable until such time as they can prove their ability to sustain a gallop from tape to post. That's not to say that eitrher can't, its just that I feel moe happy siding with something that's proven it can, rather than soemthing that might, especially since the something that might, is invaribaly put in at a short price. You do get the odd slow renewal of course, where the jog and sprint merchant does prevail because every now and then a race will be run to suit. The eprentage call however, is to look to try and side with the horse that's advertised its stamina at 2 miles, which I do believe is an attribute much under rated or not fully appreciated in the make up of a top two miler. Ebaziyan, Noland and Saulsilto Bay would be three such examples of slow time winners. These types invariably fail to make the jump into top open company, as despite 'getting away with it' in their novice careers, they will inevitably get found out a year later where there really is no hiding place. Captain Cee Bee was a fast time winner this year, and the 2008 renewal should prove a better guide than 2007's
 
Last edited:
Warbs, Hurricane Fly's stamina was well advertised in two runs over 2m4f in soft ground at Auteuil in the summer, and I will not hear of defeat!

:D
 
Grasshopper said:
Warbs, Hurricane Fly's stamina was well advertised in two runs over 2m4f in soft ground at Auteuil in the summer, and I will not hear of defeat!

:D
Click to expand...

HF was also only recently castrated...went back a bit (as anyone could see in the parade ring) so he like Cousin Vinny can only improve...going off topic a bit.
 
Back
Top