Arkle

uncle goober said:
Regarding the Doncaster race where I'msingingtheblues beat Calgary Bay, it looked clear to me that the former outbattled the latter on the run in. After Calgary Bay looked the likely winner with momentum at the final fence, he hung in behind on the flat.
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That's why I'm pleased AP looks set to take the ride :lol: That should liven his ideas up a bit
 
Maybe I'm missing something but Tatenen looks a great bet to me at available odds. Apart from Master Minded has Nicholls got a more likely Festival winner?
 
By what logic, SteveM? Despite looking impressive on both occassions, he didn't beat anything of note on his first two starts over fences, before his run in Ireland.

It was interesting that somebody (can't be arsed to check who!) said that if we could dismiss his Leopardstown run as being below par, he would hold leading claims. Surely that's the strongest piece of form he boasts over fences though? He didn't run a bad race at all that day; however, that form isn't near strong enough to make him favourite for an Arkle in my book, and even allowing for improvement I couldn't have him at 6/1 (though I certainly won't be laying him either!).
 
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Looks like yet another falsely priced horse just because of the stable he's based at...
 
trackside528 said:
By what logic, SteveM? Despite looking impressive on both occassions, he didn't beat anything of note on his first two starts over fences, before his run in Ireland.

It was interesting that somebody (can't be arsed to check who!) said that if we could dismiss his Leopardstown run as being below par, he would hold leading claims. Surely that's the strongest piece of form he boasts over fences though? He didn't run a bad race at all that day; however, that form isn't near strong enough to make him favourite for an Arkle in my book, and even allowing for improvement I couldn't have him at 6/1 (though I certainly won't be laying him either!).
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I would agree with what you say, but doesn't he just look miles better than what can be judged by the yard rule to you? Don't know about a false price... he's actually one of the very few fancies I have for this year's Festival that I'd be prepared to back again at shorter prices. I can't see too much of the opposition I'm that impressed with. I quite like Calgary Bay (particularly his jumping), but Tatenen looks to be able to quicken so well and just looks so right for this race. I can see him leaving them flat.
 
On the face of it form, who would you back

A 6/1 fav or a 25/1 shot who has beaten said favourite while giving him almost a stone. If not trained by current connections, I couldn't see this fella being favourite
 
granger said:
On the face of it form, who would you back

A 6/1 fav or a 25/1 shot who has beaten said favourite while giving him almost a stone. If not trained by current connections, I couldn't see this fella being favourite
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Yes FTP won his race, but could you really see him doing it again? I wouldn't have much hesitation in backing Tatenen to turn round that form.
 
SteveM said:
I would agree with what you say, but doesn't he just look miles better than what can be judged by the yard rule to you? Don't know about a false price... he's actually one of the very few fancies I have for this year's Festival that I'd be prepared to back again at shorter prices. I can't see too much of the opposition I'm that impressed with. I quite like Calgary Bay (particularly his jumping), but Tatenen looks to be able to quicken so well and just looks so right for this race. I can see him leaving them flat.
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I'm not quite sure what to make of Tatenen to be perfectly honest, Steve. I'm loath to oppose a horse that is both a sound jumper and open to considerable improvement in what I see as a distinctly average-looking Arkle.

That said, he was in receipt of 11lbs at Leopardstown and there is no way I could justify making him favourite for the race on the back of that piece of form. Follow The Plan probably ran a career best that day but even so I can't have that form justifying favouritism for the Arkle.

I also have a niggling suspicion that he might be ideally suited by a good bit of cut in the ground.

I couldn't have Calgary Bay at all BTW; spectacular jumper but a very suspect attitude IMO.
 
trackside528 said:
I'm not quite sure what to make of Tatenen to be perfectly honest, Steve. I'm loath to oppose a horse that is both a sound jumper and open to considerable improvement in what I see as a distinctly average-looking Arkle.

That said, he was in receipt of 11lbs at Leopardstown and there is no way I could justify making him favourite for the race on the back of that piece of form. Follow The Plan probably ran a career best that day but even so I can't have that form justifying favouritism for the Arkle.

I also have a niggling suspicion that he might be ideally suited by a good bit of cut in the ground.

I couldn't have Calgary Bay at all BTW; spectacular jumper but a very suspect attitude IMO.
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Like I say maybe I’m missing something, or just losing it altogether, but I’ve warmed to this horse since seeing him split Franchoek and Serabad/Ashkazar over timber at Chepstow (Grade 1) at the end of 2007, when he was so obviously a chaser rather than a hurdler.
He has been tremendous over jumps this season, running to 158 when clobbering Straw Bear at Cheltenham, but to just 141 last time when short-headed despite the race not being run to suit. 5yos have a great record in the Arkle, with the likes of VPU, Well Chief, Flagship U and Champleve winning in recent years and the 5yos get a 5lb allowance. The race should prove right up his street... all the way to his door number.
 
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SteveM, I think 4yo's lose all their allowances in 2m steeplechases every January when they turn 5yo (think they might retain a small allowance over 2m4f+, but not sure).

Certainly, Marodima carried 11-7 in last year's Arkle (same weight as older horses), and Kruguyrova only had the 7lbs sex-allowance.
 
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Grasshopper said:
SteveM, I think 4yo's lose all their allowances in 2m steeplechases every January when they turn 5yo (think they might retain a small allowance over 2m4f+, but not sure).

Certainly, Marodima carried 11-7 in last year's Arkle (same weight as older horses), and Kruguyrova only had the 7lbs sex-allowance.
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Indeed it looks like the 5yos have lost their 5lb allowance, even though the 5yo mare Kruguyrova, who finished runner-up last year, kept her 7lb mare’s allowance (as you say).
Previously Voy Por Ustedes (11 2), for example, got 5lbs when winning this from Monet’s Garden (11 7).
Without the 5lb Tatenen obviously has got more on his plate. So going back to my original statement I was indeed “missing something”. Thanks for identifying what that something was (...in time) and putting me right Grasshopper... the 5yos are unlikely to have such a good record in the race from now on. Thinking back, this was probably done to counter the success of young French imports.
 
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Like I said on the Sunday racing thread he visibly struggled against the other two at Fontwell despite being sent off at four to one on... very poor.
 
Grasshopper said:
(think they might retain a small allowance over 2m4f+, but not sure).


Th 5yos only get 2lb in the RSA Chase now as opposed to 10lb previously. 5yos won't be winning this race anymore and 6yos have a bad record. Look to the 7 and 8yos in the RSA Chase.
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What do you make of the prospect of good(ish) ground for Tatenen, Steve? Whilst he proved he acts on decent ground at Leopardstown, Nicholls has said the softer the better for his chance and his action would seem to back that notion.

I can't have Calgary Bay at all and, as such, have been searching for alternatives at decent prices. I'm interested in both Planet of Sound and Original (neither of whom I've backed admittedly). If the race was run on the Friday, I'd probably go in again on Kalahari King.
 
Planet of Sound would be the one for me if the ground wasn't soft. Tatenen looks like he needs soft ground to slow everything else down, Kalahari King (did someone else say this?) seems priced on what Ferdy Murphy has done at Cheltenham, and Calgary Bay seems to have more excuses thanyou'd want for a Championship race winner. Hard to know about the ground until the race before though!
 
trackside528 said:
What do you make of the prospect of good(ish) ground for Tatenen, Steve? Whilst he proved he acts on decent ground at Leopardstown, Nicholls has said the softer the better for his chance and his action would seem to back that notion.

I can't have Calgary Bay at all and, as such, have been searching for alternatives at decent prices. I'm interested in both Planet of Sound and Original (neither of whom I've backed admittedly). If the race was run on the Friday, I'd probably go in again on Kalahari King.
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Must admit that without the 5lb allowance and on anything better than soft (I agree with Hamm) I'd be less confident.

I'm starting to wonder if I'msingingtheblues could be the one, although I guess he'd be better suited to Aintree.

For what it's worth I wouldn't put you off KK but I'm still just with Tatenen.
 
I look up to him (sorry poor joke). He's an absolutely huge horse Katharine - 18.2HH apparently. Form over the channel isn't that great and I believe he's been staying with Jean-Rene Auvray while he's over here. Very impressed with him at Kempton and definitely worth a couple of quid each way at 25's+ if you can get it.
 
Irish Stamp said:
I look up to him (sorry poor joke). He's an absolutely huge horse Katharine - 18.2HH apparently. Form over the channel isn't that great and I believe he's been staying with Jean-Rene Auvray while he's over here. Very impressed with him at Kempton and definitely worth a couple of quid each way at 25's+ if you can get it.
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Thanks for that.

I'd heard he was a big horse. Hopefully I'll see his Kempton win at the weekend.

As for this race, I think I will end up making a hopeful guess on Tuesday afternoon and nothing more.
 
Power has clipped I'msingingtheblues in from 10/1 to 8/1 this morning. He is shorter in places elsewhere. Best price about 9/1. Perhaps he is the one?
 
Haven't they just gone NRNB though Steve? Perhaps that's the reason.

He does seem to me like he'd be better on a flat track, and he looked to be travelling very well in the County last year (poorly ridden that day) before failing to make much inroad up the hill.
 
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