Batfair Hurdle

this "higher than last winning mark = poorly handicapped" doesn't seem to add up..DO says Swing Bowler is well handicapped..and RPR ratings say so too..but he is racing off a mark 12lb higher than last winning mark

confusing this game int it?:)
 
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I suggest you start giving out to someone else, because you know how it ends when you do it with me.

You were not compelled to respond to my clearly-comedic description of Pine Creek, and you had no need to call me daft. In the circumstances, I was entitled to respond, and had planned to make my final contribution in my previous post, but - as ever - you don't know when to let it lie.

So you can fu*ck right off with the condescending wank in your last-but-one missive. It's representative of the fatal flaw in your make-up, because you - and only you - can turn a sideways swipe at a horse's constitution, into a personal attack on your ability to pick winners......and, frankly, I'm no longer inclined to indulge it.
 
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there you go you see..its not just me that goes off on one when i get responses i'm not happy with..you would think it is though when reading the stuff i've read about myself on here

you posted a reply...i've pointed out some flaws in it..it wasn't meant to offend in particular..i apologise..something i do when i think i might be wrong..i'm not here like..but i'll do it anyway...please note..very few on here ever do that..very few.
 
Calipto will do for me. I'll blame the wind op if he blows out.
 
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Jenny Candlish not one to tilt at windmills too often.
Her lad may be a tad high off 142 but could run a big race.
Wicklow Brave has been running a bit like a horse whose brain was cooked but best of luck to all the faithful.
 
I wouldn't call it a mugs bet.

A mugs bet to my mind is someone who keeps backing the same horse at short odds that keeps losing. I'm not sure you can necessarily call a speculatively 33/1 shot a mugs bet as the chances are known. So far as I can see it's one of those that might work, or might look hysterically bad. The evidence is there to support either scenario but the more recent evidence weighs with the likelihood of the latter occurring.

What i can't really understand, is that based on the last run at Newbury, the horse clearly has no right be there. Mullins should have drawn stumps on him gievn the ammunition he has available for what is the richest 2 mile handicap hurdle in Britain (I think). Why hasn't he? Mullins isn't exactly a communicator at the best of times, but he must have shown something to be lining up. I'd describe it as a blind leap of faith.

One of the things I like to look at when assessing a bigger price is the number of things you need to go right for you in order for the horse to take a hand. As a general rule the more of these you can identify the more unlikely it is that the juxtaposition of all the planets will line up for you

Very crudely, what we have here is a horse that has lost his way. What you're gambling on is that Mullins knows why, and he's resolved it. If he does, and he has, he's only likely to telling us afterwards anyway given what a poor communicator he is
 
It could be nothing more than an promotional exercise that Ruby will be getting appearance money for and he wins nothing...........Mullins Walsh Wicklow Bloodstock Limited

What better way apart from winning is there of getting cheap TV advertising
 
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Advertising or marketing which is where I made my living doesn't work like that

Win lose or draw it's all about getting your name out there and if your horse gets lose and holds up the race for an hour dodging the handlers all the better
 
According to the bookies featured on Oddchecker there's a gamble taking place on 14 different horses simultationally :blink: Bunch of chancers are cutting the odds on every horse they think will attract money and won't haven't taken sh!t for them
 
Will Choice be Chief or will it prove to be a Pipe Dream?

3.35 - Newbury - Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

This used to be a difficult race for Novices to win but that has changed in recent years with four of the last five renewals won by that group. Calipto and Activial are Novices that currently vie for favouritism and are the only two at single figure prices in a 24 runner field. Both have plenty of potential but, on achievements to date, they couldn't be described as well handicapped. Progression will not exclude them from winning but it's debatable whether they are worth supporting at their current prices. Prominent racers have fared well in recent renewals but there are a plethora of front runners and pace forcing horses present this year and it wouldn't be a surprise if that trend were to be broken. An ability to see out the trip strongly will be paramount in today's conditions on a track which is more testing that it appears.

First selection is the six year old Chieftain's Choice. He comes here on the back of two facile victories in which he has dominated from the outset. He didn't beat much but he did it in taking fashion and it was preceded by a very close second at Wetherby where he was happy to take a lead. This will be far his sternest test to date but it's difficult to say just how good he is and an opening mark of 134 seems very fair. The yard won the race back in 2011 with Recession Proof so they know what it takes to prepare a horse for this. His three qualifying runs came before the turn of the year so he will be fresh and a victory in heavy ground at Hexham leaves no doubts concerning his stamina and his ability to handle testing conditions. On the face of it he would seem to have an ideal blend of stamina and speed and his hurdling technique is very sound. The only area of concern is that he is not very big and that could be a disadvantage with him not being very streetwise. However he satisfies plenty of criteria and he is at a price that looks worth taking.

Next choice falls to Balgarry who, at eight years old, is not your typical winner of this race. However he has had more than a few problems and has only made the racecourse on six occasions. He was well supported but well beaten when returning from a 33 month absence in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas. He tried to dominate that race from the front but probably overdid it. He put that behind him when finishing a clear second at Sandown early last month, beating all bar a lightly weighted winner who had skipped the field. A subsequent five pound rise in the weights would seem harsh but there's every chance he will improve again and he did achieve better when winning over C/D on his handicap debut back in March 2012. That comfortable victory from a mark of 129 suggests he has the inherent ability to cope with his current position in the handicap, albeit in one of the most competitive handicaps imaginable. He stays further than this so stamina won't be an issue and he represents a team who know all about winning big handicaps.

There are a whole host of others with valid claims, in fact you would be hard pushed to find a horse without some sort of chance, but the strong traveling and tactically versatile On Tour showed he could handle soft ground for the first time when winning at Haydock last time out. When the ground is described as soft there it really is soft and he went through it in effortless fashion. That was over 20 furlongs but a soundly run extended two miles could suit this very progressive type and it seems only a matter of time before he surpasses his current mark of 138. That could well be today and he is one that will benefit if the pace collapses late on. The presence of Ruby Walsh for his only ride of the day sounds warning bells and his mount, Wiclow Brave, has proven his class in the past. The partnership were successful the only previous time they teamed up and there's little doubt that if Wiclow Brave were to return to his best then a mark of 140 wouldn't stop him getting very competitive. It's tempting to side with Mullins/Walsh, who get it right more often than not, but two heavy defeats this season are not easy to forget.

Selections:

Chieftain's Choice - 1 pt e/w @ 18/1. (Paddy Power, 1/4 odds first 5)
Balgarry - 1 pt e/w @ 18/1. (SkyBet, 1/4 odds first 5)
On Tour - 1 pt win @ 12/1. (Totesport, Betfred)
 
I'm going to break one of my personal rules and go into more detail about this race on this forum. Below is a slightly edited version of the analysis of the race I wrote last night.

Now that the ratings are tabulated, I’m a bit happier with my early ante-post bet on Sign Of A Victory as a lot of the ones attracting attention in the racing media appear to have a bit to do. He’s rated on the bare form of his Ascot win but I said at the time I thought he had at least ten lengths in reserve. That would take his rating to at least 163 on my scale. Then after the Christmas Hurdle Henderson was quoted as saying he should really have finished second [to Faugheen, ahead of Purple Bay] so if that is correct and if Purple Bay is genuinely a 161 (OR) horse, that would translate to a minimum of 168 on my scale. My only concern is the ground as that was what they blamed for that moderate run and his previous win was on genuinely good ground. It’s a shame they had to cover the track as that will have retained a lot of the moisture despite the largely dry week. Without the frost I reckon they would be racing on fast ground here and he might well have been a bit of a good thing and might have won without having too hard a time of it ahead of a tilt at the Champion Hurdle.

I’m happy, too, with my other ante-post bets, Swing Bowler (40/1), Bordoni (33/1), Goodwood Mirage (25/1) and Wicklow Brave (33/1), all each-way. I wouldn’t normally back as many but these prices were just ridiculous and I’ll be amazed if their SPs are anywhere near them.

Swing Bowler’s higher rating was in the Scottish Champion Hurdle but it might flatter her a little, especially since she was ridden by 7lbs claimer Mikey Ennis. Her lower mark was in this race and is probably more reliable. Assuming she can run to the same mark she should be placed again and anything that finishes in front of her will go very close to winning.

Bordoni’s rating comes from the Galway Hurdle which, in my book, is probably the most under-rated race for a long time. I’m not worried that he carries the second colours – Retrieve did so last week – but he seemed friendless in the market these past few days and went out to 40/1. I took a small nibble at the 100 at Betfair for the win in case I’m right about him, though, and I now see he has shortened up across the board and is only 31 on the exchange. If he shortens up again in the morning I’ll lay it off.

Goodwood Mirage is more of a gut bet. Jonjo doesn’t often send hopeless cases for this race and AP wouldn’t be riding if it was. He wouldn’t appear to have anything in hand of his mark but now that he has been gelded and wears blinkers for the first time it seems fair to assume they expect him to improve again.

Wicklow Brave is less risky even if three poor runs this season require forgiving. He wasn’t beaten far in the Supreme having been close at the last and went up to 145 for it. He’s back down at 140. It wouldn’t be improbable for the principals from that race to improve 7-10lbs the next season so he could be well handicapped and the trainer suggested earlier in the season that a fast run two-mile handicap hurdle in England could be what he needs.

Calipto heads the market and I prefer him to Activial. The former has had a breathing op since his last run and the yard appears to have put him away for this, a race in which they have a very solid record. He might well win but I can’t back him at the price.

I’m interested that Scu has opted for Balgarry over Swing Bowler. Maybe he feels a place is the best the mare can achieve but even Balgarry’s best form of three years ago leaves him with improvement to find.

Fascino Rustico strikes me as a likely type but I simply prefer the chances of others. Amore Alato will be popular with Lizzie Kelly taking weight off and riding so well but I prefer Ballyboley at 25/1 and he’ll be my last bet, each-way. He won the Aintree Bumper and looks totally unexposed after a light campaign in novice company, not unlike the same stable’s Splash of Ginge who won last year. Balleybolley has far better bumper form and his OR last time was 7lbs higher. If he’s a Cheltenham novice hurdle contender he’ll need to be a good 21lbs-plus better than his current mark.

I might see if I can lay off the win portions of the each-way bets as they can't all win!

Edit - Apologies to Ricko. I was typing while you were posting your piece. I wasn't trying to compete with your excellent synopsis.
 
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Not at all mate, the more the merrier. Really interesting analysis as well...Swing Bowler was definitely on the shortlist, as was Lightentertainment. Should be a cracking race.
 
I don't find myself too far away from the above analysis. Thanks both for sharing.

I've split my win stakes between On Tour and Sign of a Victory, and I've had a couple of each way plays on Swing Bowler and Bordoni.

My biggest bet of the day is on Houblon des Obeaux in the Denman. I think he's a player in the Gold Cip if it happened to come up soft, and I believe the rest are all below that.
 
Houblon Des Obeaux beat Hey Big Spender by 5l giving 5lb last time out. I'm amazed and pleased he's favourite for the Denman.
 
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