Batfair Hurdle
- Thread starter Grasshopper
- Start date
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I always wondered why Betfair close the AP market but don't transfer all bets still running to the new book......I have a fair bit of money riding on this race and it's really annoying because I can't use my bot to calculate exactly where I stand in running. One may want to get out at a smaller loss if the horse is not performing or green up if he is. You can of course put in a lay at a short price but then that can be taken in a flash when you might not want it to be bc your horse is cruising or whatever...............I find it stupid and annoying am I missing something here?
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
This is definitely not an old fashioned laid out for the race for a gamble plot.......He'd have an obvious chance on his best form and maybe he is showing his old sparkle at home but he would be off for his life last time he came to Newbury and just ran a stinker for some reason (injury perhaps?) and maybe why he's not been seen for a while
Seems like there's a WM raid heading for Warwick and there's nothing too exciting happening at Naas so I expect Ruby will be coming over but to Newbury?
Bit scary when you see a WM horse that won 5 on the trot entered after a 72 day holiday
I notice he came over to take on L'Ami Serge and Paul Townsend rode him I would imagine that will be the same again and Ruby will be heading to Warwick if it's on.
There must be a chance Wicklow Bloodstock Limited just want to be present (have a runner) because it's a big meeting?
I am not paying to find out and will give it a miss
Seems like there's a WM raid heading for Warwick and there's nothing too exciting happening at Naas so I expect Ruby will be coming over but to Newbury?
Bit scary when you see a WM horse that won 5 on the trot entered after a 72 day holiday
I notice he came over to take on L'Ami Serge and Paul Townsend rode him I would imagine that will be the same again and Ruby will be heading to Warwick if it's on.
There must be a chance Wicklow Bloodstock Limited just want to be present (have a runner) because it's a big meeting?
I am not paying to find out and will give it a miss
Last edited:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,038
It's a different market.
If your ante-post bet ends up a late non-runner, that bet loses so you don't have the prospective winnings to lay against.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,038
I suspect he was over to get a sight of the track.
He does have a proper shout on his Supreme form alone, before you factor in normal second-season improvement but his form this season has him off the radar so far. If this was deemed a long-term target for him at the start of the season I'd be tempted to completely ignore anything he has (or hasn't) done this season.
Put yourself in the trainer's shoes. You have a horse rated 144. You're pretty sure it's going to be a 154+ horse by the end of the season. That's not good enough to win a championship race so you need to target a big handicap. The horse has run very well in the hurly-burly of the Supreme so a valuable handicap seems sensible. The aim, then, becomes to get the his mark down a bit. To do that you need to get it noticed. How? Send it to England for a high-profile gubbing. Hey, it's down to 140! Put it away and schedule its training to work backwards from February.
Doesn't make it a good thing, but it does get it into the race with a proper shout.
PS - if Newbury doesn't work out, there's always the County.
Last edited:
Roddy Owen
At the Start
EC1
On a break
cheers Roddy
I like both too but the fact he picked PC is a decent pointer isn't it?..definitely handicapped to win imo.
Already backed fascino so will go with PC as well
Swing Bowler tops your list and she's a big each way price at 20/1. She was 3rd off a 1lb lower mark 2 years ago behind My Tent or Yours who was thrown in with the benefit of hindsight, and 5th last year without getting the run of the race off a 1 lb higher. If she doesn't get in position to win they might look after her mark to run in the County Hurdle rather than the mares at Cheltenham, but I'll be really interested to see who's declared to ride later this morning with Scu opting for Balgarry which is also feasibly handicapped.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,038
Hughes has an impressive strike rate for Ferguson. I imagine he was booked for Bordoni before Moore was for PC. Nor would I worry about the former carrying the second colours. Retrieve did so on Sunday at Musselburgh when AP was wearing the first on Sea Lord.
EC1
On a break
i've been a bit generous with Swing Bowler to be fair..recent form points to them not wanting a win off 138 ..the horse is an odd one..won those races..wins first handicap off 123..then is beat off 134 + 136 in this 2 years running.
will probably run well but i just don't think its a winner
i also think better ground suits..it wasn't that soft when won at Musselbro. looks like a summer ground horse trying to be a winter ground horse to me
will probably run well but i just don't think its a winner
i also think better ground suits..it wasn't that soft when won at Musselbro. looks like a summer ground horse trying to be a winter ground horse to me
Double Handful
At the Start
Now I can read the thing...good postCpt Ryan Price won the race with horses who had worse form going into it
Thanks for the rearrangement of my post Tanlic
I'll admit it certainly looks neater now! And normally that would be more my style, but when I first came on the forum over a year ago I was strongly encouraged to stop writing in 'Paragraphs'. Apparently, at that time, it was a signature style of a bit of a header that has subsequently been dismissed from the forum.. Anyway, cheers for the input.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Think on the brightside DH if that Wicklow Brave wins the Betfair you'll be able to buy your own forum and give me a full time jobs making paragraphs for everybody 
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Just a personal thing with me but when a jockey says a horse has an EW chance I get the distinct feeling he doesn't fancy the horse at all.
That aside I thought the Ladbroke was a bit of an unsatisfactory. The winner seemed to unfancied and if he couldn't beat him off 136 I have severe doubt about him winning here off 144.
The opposition and where he finished certainly can justify the rise but I think in the long term he's going to find winning very difficult until he'd dropped a good few pound.
Like all of us I could be wrong but I wouldn't be giving him or Ferguson's other horse a second glance in this race which looks a lot tougher to me than the Ladbroke did.
archie
Senior Jockey
Certainly can't knock the value of Wicklow Brave but, if it is plotted up you'd be surprised that it's still available at 33/1. I backed it for the Supreme last year and got the impression that it didn't get home in a fast run race. Townend goes to Warwick so there's still a chance for Ruby to ride but I'd guess he'll go to Naas to ride for the Riccis.
Edit:
According to atr website, Ruby declared for Wicklow Brave.
Edit:
According to atr website, Ruby declared for Wicklow Brave.
Last edited:
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I was away looking at the betting on the machine just now and noticed SOAV has drifted a bit today and absolutely nothing is really being backed.
Could be one of those years when there isn't anything that isn't exactly what you see in which case the bookies will come up with one they think would be popular if there was money for it.
Wouldn't be the first time nor would it be the last that the bookies started an imaginary gamble and all the mug punters jump in.
The fact Ruby is going to Newbury doesn't seem to have inspired anyone to jump in.he's been sitting there at 33/1 on the machine for hours.
Mind you if you want to make him odds on 1.6 you could do so with a grand so it's early days yet.
Could be one of those years when there isn't anything that isn't exactly what you see in which case the bookies will come up with one they think would be popular if there was money for it.
Wouldn't be the first time nor would it be the last that the bookies started an imaginary gamble and all the mug punters jump in.
The fact Ruby is going to Newbury doesn't seem to have inspired anyone to jump in.he's been sitting there at 33/1 on the machine for hours.
Mind you if you want to make him odds on 1.6 you could do so with a grand so it's early days yet.
I was another who backed him in the Supreme, and as they came down the hill, he was the only runner who'd been able to go with Vautour. Indeed, I thought he might have been starting to assert, until they met the rising ground turning in, and by the time he had the hill to climb he just emptied. I did say almost immediately (an attempt to look clever) that he'd be a different proposition on a flat track and nominated Newbury and this race in particular (without seriously thinking for one second he'd turn up). Since then he's run like a drain though. If he's been plotted, then that process must have started after Punchestown, so you need to forgive that one too.
I think he's worth trying, as he should be about 155 on his novice form if granted normal progression (which hasn't happened) so you know that there is theoretical progression concealed there, but whether they're able to unlock that is another issue. If you go back through the Irish preview nights comments, his was the name that was most frequently mentioned. Ted Walsh felt he was faster than Vautour.
A bit of me wonders if he hasn't developed an undiagnosed issue that only comes to the fore when asked for effort? 'a hurting horse' but if they're found that, and his entry might be a clue, then he's feasibly handicapped. I don't mind chancing these all of nothing types though. Sure they can make you look stupid, but I tend to feel more stupid when something comes in 6th or 7th having never even threatened to take a hand. I don't mind coming last, so long as the horse gave himself a chance to come first
I think he's worth trying, as he should be about 155 on his novice form if granted normal progression (which hasn't happened) so you know that there is theoretical progression concealed there, but whether they're able to unlock that is another issue. If you go back through the Irish preview nights comments, his was the name that was most frequently mentioned. Ted Walsh felt he was faster than Vautour.
A bit of me wonders if he hasn't developed an undiagnosed issue that only comes to the fore when asked for effort? 'a hurting horse' but if they're found that, and his entry might be a clue, then he's feasibly handicapped. I don't mind chancing these all of nothing types though. Sure they can make you look stupid, but I tend to feel more stupid when something comes in 6th or 7th having never even threatened to take a hand. I don't mind coming last, so long as the horse gave himself a chance to come first
Double Handful
At the Start
David Casey already booked for few rides at Naas tomorrow, so It won't be him. And what would Ruby me missing? Obviously He'd want to ride Vroum Vroum Mag, but it's only a €13k race... Then the only other one he'd be giving up is Blood Cotil in a weak beginners chase. Patrick will ride Pylonthepressue in the Bumper anyway. With Townend already confirmed for Warwick I am becoming more optimistic. Ruby could pick up other rides in Newbury for other trainers too. When will we know for sure?
EDIT: Ye all got there before me.
Last edited:
Double Handful
At the Start
Fortune Favours the Brave !! Watch the price tumble now......
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Pine Creek is a black-hole for hard-currency, Roddy - I couldn't bring myself to back him if Jesus was riding, and God Himself trained!! :lol:
EC1
On a break
thats a bit daft Grass about a horse who has won 3 of last 8 and ran well last time..in a race where the only other held up horse behind it won since..garde la victoire
looks primed for a right run here just on the last run
Last edited:
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
What's "daft" is overlooking the fact he's lost 4 of his last 4, and that he's a stone higher since his last win. IMHO.
Maybe he is "primed for a run" here....but he's hardly the only horse you can say that about, is he?
You pays yer money and takes yer chance......and I'd rather be backing something else.
EC1
On a break
he's hardly a black hole for money though is he?
he should a stone higher than for last win..he's still one of the best handicapped in the field
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
He is if you've backed him in two of his last four runs, the cu*nt!! :lol:
He isn't at-all well handicapped, imo. Beating Chris Pea Green 3/4L in receipt of 3lbs, before being unsighted in three better races (and well held in the fourth when getting weight) isn't my idea of a horse with a progressive profile. He's been mugged by the OH on the back of the run against Activial, in my view, but fill your boots if you feel the need.
As for who is daft, it's usually better-measured after the event, rather than before it. Good luck.
Last edited:
EC1
On a break
let me get this right..you only judge well handicapped on a horse's last winning mark..i'm surprised no one has mentioned the flaw in that..then again..i'm not really...if i'd said it there would 5 folk queueing up to score points by now
let me get this right..my odds of being right are 16/1..yours are 1/16..but you are going to somehow think afterwards you've made some big call?
i see.
well as the odds are against me..... i'll say in advance very well done on your 1/16 winner..good call
Last edited: