Bet Victor Gold Cup

Grasshopper said:
Note that Clan Des Obeaux ran at Kempton yesterday, and is therefore presumably rated an unlikely runner?
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:eek:

Yeh, just saw that when following up GH's mention of Whisper on the Hennessy thread. That's twice in a week and half I've failed to keep up with what's happening (after Waiting Patiently v Belami Des Pictons at Carlisle last weekend went under my radar).

Proof that I tend not to follow non-Saturday racing!
 
edgt said:
I would give Tully East a great shout here.
Stable in red hot form lately and horse likes the track.
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Music to my ears. I reckon its between him and Kylemore, which means the market has it right. Both will go off shorter if they make it there on Saturday, IMHO.
 
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I've got so many tracker / cliff horses in here that if I didn't contain myself I could end up backing half the field. But thank feck Buywise isn't running !

"Narrowed" it down to Starchitect, Tully East, RDS and Gold Present so perhaps a bit more narrowing required
 
Starchitect for me. Watched the Brown plate race at the festival this year in which he finished 5th, however had no luck in running whatsoever. Good ground will be to his liking, trainer seemed impressed with his recent win at Stratford (time below standard) & the Pipe's like to target one for this.
 
I am finding it hard to talk myself out investing my month's betting budget on Romain De Senam and the fact that DO has him the hopper has worsened my plight.

Help!
 
Just posted something on the Long shot thread that might give you a value alternative seen as you like that one an capall.
 
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It would actually be interesting to know with regards Romain de senam how many horses have landed a hatrick by winning this. Generally you feel that to win a handicap that you have to have a certain amount of lbs in hand, to win a really competitive one like this you probably need 7-10 up your sleeve ? Having won 2 races and been raised 12lbs recently I'd wonder how much improvement is left in such a short space of time.
 
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Danny said:
It would actually be interesting to know with regards Romain de senam how many horses have landed a hatrick by winning this.
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Probably not many but it would all depend on how the horse was handicapped to begin with so there wouldn't be many in a position to do so to start with.

Danny said:
Generally you feel that to win a handicap that you have to have a certain amount of lbs in hand, to win a really competitive one like this you probably need 7-10 up your sleeve ?
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Obviously this is the basic principle of winning handicaps. By definition you can't win a handicap unless you're well-handicapped (all other things being equal) and the more valuable the handicap the more likely it is to be contested by horses whose connections believe them to be very well handicapped. However, not all winners of this race would be put up 7-10lbs (the amount you'd naturally believe they had 'up their sleeve'), since if several well-handicapped types fought out a finish it could be a close affair and the handicapper would then be obliged to minimise any rise.

Good examples arose at the 2017 Festival. As I've said on the Hennessy thread, I think the Ultima winner Un Temps Pour tout is one of the best handicapped horses in the country - despite winning it in a photo - yet the handicapper only raised him 5lbs. I think that was the lowest rise of any handicap winner of the week and the highest was (I think) Cause Of Causes, who won by the widest margin. Yet in my opinion horses that finished out of the money in some of those races will have out-performed their handicap mark, especially in the Ultima.


Danny said:
Having won 2 races and been raised 12lbs recently I'd wonder how much improvement is left in such a short space of time.
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RDS might well have been ridiculously handicapped to start with off 133 as he'd been (in my book) a 155 hurdler with the potential to go on to be a 160-ish type. It's pretty normal for decent hurdlers to end up rated another 10lbs higher once they go chasing so he could be a 170-ish chaser in the making. Look at Might Bite for something comparable.

I backed RDS more than once in his second season hurdling on the basis of his potential but always felt he was being saved for something. I didn't realise it was for another season or two! (Reminds me of Willie Carson upon realising he'd been caught bang to rights over a non-trier at Hamilton. When asked what the instructions were he said, "To hold the horse up." "For how long?" inquired the stewards. Carson replied, "Till Ayr next week!")

So RDS, despite his 12lbs hike, might still be lobbed in.

But so might many others!
 
I've invested in Ballyalton at 12/1. Ian Williams horses could hardly be in better nick at the moment, and this one has plenty of previous at Cheltenham. The key bit of form is winning the Close Brothers in 2016 in race that I thought was better than the one Tully East won this season. The fact that Ballyalton is better off at the weights than Tully East is obviously a bonus.

I respect the chances of others, particularly Nicholls two runners Le Prezien and Roman de Senam, and will probably back one of them on the day as a back up to the selection. I was tempted by Starchitect too but I'm not sure how much there is left in his mark. The same being true of Foxtail Hill. Tully east won't be far away either, but I prefer Ballyalton for the reasons said.

I will also have a play with combo trifectas with some of the above named.
 
Theinval looks good value at 25/1 with the sponsor paying 5 places. Nico on Days of Heaven but Jerry McGrath gets on well with this horse so not concerned by that. Looked as if NJH had left plenty to work on last time out


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Desert Orchid said:
RDS might well have been ridiculously handicapped to start with off 133 as he'd been (in my book) a 155 hurdler with the potential to go on to be a 160-ish type. It's pretty normal for decent hurdlers to end up rated another 10lbs higher once they go chasing so he could be a 170-ish chaser in the making. Look at Might Bite for something comparable.

I backed RDS more than once in his second season hurdling on the basis of his potential but always felt he was being saved for something. I didn't realise it was for another season or two! (Reminds me of Willie Carson upon realising he'd been caught bang to rights over a non-trier at Hamilton. When asked what the instructions were he said, "To hold the horse up." "For how long?" inquired the stewards. Carson replied, "Till Ayr next week!")

So RDS, despite his 12lbs hike, might still be lobbed in.

But so might many others!
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Haven't really looked at him that closely I'm already on Le prezien and a smaller wager on Mystifiable at 40's but I'll be playing a Foxtail Hill, Leprezien forecast as I think the race between them at Cheltenham considering it was first time out and at a trip that is probably short of what they want was very solid form. Considering they've stuck 11 lengths on the 3rd and a further 8 back to the 4th 7lb and 6lb rises look more than fair and I'm quite attached to the both. I always like a go at the trifecta and you've made some solid points there DO so I'll have a closer look and may well include him by the sounds of it and will also take on board Euro's point about Starchitect.
 
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I don't wanna sound like a cracked record, but I've a fair wedge on Mohaayed at 12's e/w in The Greatwood, but I fear London Prize whose been supported today.

I saw him win at Gosforth in the summer, he's a nice type, but I'm just hoping London Prize has an off-day Sunday.

I've another nice wedge on Tully East, but this is a tentative selection, (thanks to Zongalero for putting me onto him).

I'm hoping one of the above lands a blow anyway...

All roads can hopefully lead to me hammering Vyta Du Roc e/w for early December.
 
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Danny said:
Haven't really looked at him that closely I'm already on Le prezien and a smaller wager on Mystifiable at 40's but I'll be playing a Foxtail Hill, Leprezien forecast as I think the race between them at Cheltenham considering it was first time out and at a trip that is probably short of what they want was very solid form. Considering they've stuck 11 lengths on the 3rd and a further 8 back to the 4th 7lb and 6lb rises look more than fair and I'm quite attached to the both. I always like a go at the trifecta and you've made some solid points there DO so I'll have a closer look and may well include him by the sounds of it and will also take on board Euro's point about Starchitect.
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Thought I'd copy the rest of my thoughts over as I searched to make find a couple for the trifecta. Apologies if there are any mistakes the majority was typed mostly this morning after a 12 hour night shift.

Morning, and so we continue. 18 runners and I'm ruling out nine straight off the bat.

Double treasure seems to have been zapped with some sort of gamma radiation. Looked awful for his first few starts then went from 108 to 150 in 4 runs incredible improvement the next Hunt ball perhaps? Well he's earned most of it through the summer and then seemed to just completely **** off the handicapper on his latest win at Cheltenham in a 6 runner affair as he's been whacked with 13lb game over I feel.


Kylemore Lough the favourite yes he's outta there. Some impressive form on his resume and his supporters can point to his first time out performance at Ascot which reads pretty well and they might also point to his 2nd in the Caspian caviar last year where he's was an unlucky second having clouted a couple of flights. He is a couple of pounds lower here. However The Caspian Caviar is over a bit further and the ground was a lot softer than it will be (I'm presuming) on Saturday and I'm sure this will be a bit too quick for him. The paddy power is always a stronger race than the Caviar and this looks a strong renewal. My best guess is he'll run ok but come up short get dropped a couple of pounds and then come back in December and make a big challenge once more.

Days of heaven just plainly looks held on recent form.

Viconte Du noyer has a strange profile in that he was winning here over 3m3f last season. Somewhat proved effective over a similar trip to this running a decent race at Punchestown but that would be the one and only performance you could base him having a chance on the rest make him look like a no hoper.

Ballyalton I suppose you could make a claim for on his Close brothers win at the festival some 18 months ago but had a lot of problems since. Ian Williams doing well at the moment but it would be quite some feat to bring this animal back to that form and even if he did although some good animals came out of that race it was a slowly run affair and my opinion that reading into collateral lines with the likes of Double Shuffle and Bovril to make him well handicapped won't work out.

Aqua Dude quite interested me for a while but I think he like Kylemore Lough needs a good downpour to stand any chance really and the same can be said for Splash of Ginge who quite frankly likes to be up to his knees so he's passed over also.

Lake Tapuna is trained by Jim Culloty when he has winners you can afford to miss them.

Bentilimar needs the move to Charlie Longsdons to improve him a lot to take a hand here.

That's nine out.

3 I've already put reasoning up for and all week I haven't wavered from Le prezien and Foxtail hill being rock solid propositions and I'm still firmly in their corner as the 2 to be with. Mystifiable I'm happy to just have the soft fiver each way at the price but realistically I get the feeling its a 5th or 6th place finish at best.


Trying to whittle down the other 6 contenders for an attempt at the trifecta has been a bit more of a chore. I could sort of make a case for all of them, for and against which I will do once I have my thoughts straight.

Tully east is another one prominent in the betting whom I'm keen to get rid of. He's run 2 good races at Cheltenham festival including the Close brothers chase back in the spring. Again this was a very slow race and although he looked visually impressive I don't believe he was the best horse in the race and he's been raised 6lb. His prep run for this looked awful albeit a 2 mile hurdle on soft ground and granted a better showing can be expected tomorrow but he was hitting hurdles and was beaten a long way considering his hurdle mark is lower than his chase mark. I personally think he's a terrible price I can see why he is but I'd like to see how he copes with what will be a much stronger pace tomorrow I think bar the second and third from the Close brothers chase it'll turn out to be a very bad line of form to be following.

Romain de senam has probably given me the biggest headache of all. My first impression was that its a strange preparation that Paul Nicholls has given the horse for this. He looked mightily impressive when winning at Chepstow and that was that, you'd have thought he'd have come straight here but he ran him again 6 days later where he was a lot less impressive when narrowly winning from 6lb lower than he will race off here. Its that coupled with the fact that I don't think there would have been too many horses down the years landed this race on a Hatrick. I think inpart he's sort of played his hand and whilst he did look like he could be the next big thing and he does have previous at Cheltenham finishing second in the Fred winter I think at the prices I have to drop him from a trifecta. If your going to make the most of trifectas at somepoint you have to try and get fancied runners out the frame and although a more likely sort than some I will probably include I'll take my chances that he's not the next big thing.

So out of the fancied runners that leaves me with Starchitect whom at first I was ready to drop but i'm now thinking of including and then I'm not sure again. It depends on how much faith you put in his reappearance run by all accounts its a cracking reappearance solid time and a good win and if he were to come on from that stands a good chance. However on his 2 runs here last spring he certainly has a bit to find 5th in the plate and 5th again in April both times well beaten including well behind Foxtail Hill and he's a few pounds higher here. Watching those you'd write him off but the fact he's just coming of age really and that impressive comeback is he just an improved horse this season that is the question and not one I'm sure I know the answer to.

That's brings us to some more speculative types who I'd give a squeak to.

Theivenals chances look fairly obvious in the way that he was third staying on in the Johnny Henderson. Finished a close 2nd to Cloudy dream over 2m4f after that and he's 2lb lower here. I think we've already seen this season that Cloudy is better than the 155 he raced off that day. Thevinals comeback 2 weeks ago at Ascot was alright and he never runs that well off the back of a break. More chase starts than you'd like for this would say he's not as unexposed as some of his rivals maybe but part of that says he's a more solid proposition to be thereabouts.

V Wiliiams is waiting in the wings to kick me in the balls with an unlikely outsider in the shape of Plaisir D'amour. Unexposed has course form although not strong collaterally won easy disappointed at Sandown next time but I forgive anything a bad one at Sandown as that place is a law unto itself. V also had Aso entered up here who had previous good from but he's out and PDA is in at the prices maybe worth inclusion.

Finally ( Assuming I haven't missed anyone) Guitar Pete. Who finished third in a triumph here albeit probably a poor one then followed up with a Grd1 Juvenile win at Aintree. He completely and utterly lost his way over in Ireland but since being turned to IMO one of the most gifted trainers in business today in Nicky Richards. Since the move and discounting a try over a longer trip he's gone 2,2,2,2,1,2 or something like that anyway. 134 is a mark that is way lower than what he achieved at his hurdling best and if anybody can tap into the potential that he once had it would be Nicky Richards. His overall summer form doesn't really look strong enough to compete here and if he were trained by anybody else I wouldn't give him a second look but at the prices I'm tempted to include him.

Still haven't fully decided what to go with but will update with the bets in the morning.
 
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Good piece DO. Have to disagree on the renewal though, I think it's pretty terrible - It's full of handicappers.

I have to qualify that - I love jumps racing but the handicaps I have little interest in unless there are horse's in them that aren't handicappers, that have come into the race via graded and/or the novice ranks. This race has KL and Le Prezien and the rest are ho hum handicappers. Like, I wouldn't normally touch the earlier race, the 3m3f one - but I'll take Minella Rocco against the shite he lines up against tomorrow all day long when he isn't even favourite.
 
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Dessie's remark that the renewal is a good one. I don't think it is. I have a nice price about KL but the drying ground is a big downer and so I think we'll see a hum drum winner like an Annacotty or a Caid du Berlais rather than a classier sort like Al Ferof or last year's winner.
 
Ah no worries as it just came straight after my post and I'd echoed that sentiment and re my comments on your fella's chances I still wouldn't mind holding a 20/1 voucher and it was a cracking call that far out mate. Just a shame about the weather.
 
Euronymous said:
Dessie's remark that the renewal is a good one. I don't think it is. I have a nice price about KL but the drying ground is a big downer and so I think we'll see a hum drum winner like an Annacotty or a Caid du Berlais rather than a classier sort like Al Ferof or last year's winner.
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Is this code for, 'I'm on the wrong horse, and Tully East is a good thing" haha. Only joking fella, good luck with Kylemore, if he was a stone less in the weights he'd have been the right bet. Well done on getting 20s though, that was some foresight.
 
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