Bet Victor Gold Cup

Euronymous said:
Good piece DO. Have to disagree on the renewal though, I think it's pretty terrible - It's full of handicappers.

I have to qualify that - I love jumps racing but the handicaps I have little interest in unless there are horse's in them that aren't handicappers, that have come into the race via graded and/or the novice ranks. This race has KL and Le Prezien and the rest are ho hum handicappers. Like, I wouldn't normally touch the earlier race, the 3m3f one - but I'll take Minella Rocco against the shite he lines up against tomorrow all day long when he isn't even favourite.
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I'll be amazed if Minella Rocco's campaign doesn't consist of a bunch of shite runs before a tilt at the National.
 
Haven't looked at the times but visually it seemed that today's runners found the going challenging. Stayers to the fore it seemed to me.
 
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I'm genuinely surprised by Euro's dismissal of the quality in depth of the field.

For me, the quality has been in gradual - perhaps not uniform - increase for a long time. The race hit its low point the year Joint Sovereignty won and some clown paid 100,000G or so for it to run in the National. That, of course, was back in the day when the popular consensus that you needed a two-and-a-half-miler for the National was fast approaching the end of its validity. But JS was the least well handicapped winner (post-race analysis) I've ever rated.

Recent renewals have been getting stronger and stronger and I honestly believe this could be the strongest ever.

I base that belief on the scope of so many of the field to at least match what it would normally take to win a proper Saturday Class 2 handicap. I reckon whatever finishes seventh or eighth tomorrow could run better than its handicap mark but end up well beaten. The handicapper won't assess the race along those lines, though. His procedures will dictate that a tight finish will mean the ratings of the principals don't go up much. And then people will wonder why the form works out in subsequent races.

Then again, I'm open to any evidence to the contrary.
 
I've no doubt you're correct it's just I like my handicaps with quality horses at the top of the weights. I mean, if Politologue,Cloudy Dream (who is a knocking bet in the Schloer) and Waiting Patiently were in the race to me that would be a bang on renewal.
 
I'm with Dessie. Any £90k h/c will - almost by definition - include a number that have been 'hiding their light', and you'd expect a few of the principals to prove better than their current ratings - without, necessarily, there being an 'Imperial Commander' amongst them.
Case in point (imo) would be Foxtail Hill who won over 2m on his seasonal debut, yet showed when making all, in a strongly run 2.5m chase (New Course) this January, this trip holds no terrors for him.
Probably needs to find more to win today,but the step back up in trip indicates he might do.
Good race today, and often a pointer for the rest of the season.
 
Euronymous said:
I've no doubt you're correct it's just I like my handicaps with quality horses at the top of the weights. I mean, if Politologue,Cloudy Dream (who is a knocking bet in the Schloer) and Waiting Patiently were in the race to me that would be a bang on renewal.
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Ah, that's a different angle altogether and one I wouldn't necessarily disagree with.

Then again, Kylemore Lough had the same rating as Politologue when the weights came out and GH earlier in the thread said he was surprised it wasn't rated closer to 160, which would have close to Cloudy Dream.

My definition of 'best ever' or 'strongest ever' referred to the idea of there being more horses in the race who strike me as being particularly well handicapped. They might not be strung out like washing at the end - usually a sign of very good form at this kind of level - but I reckon whatever wins will need to be a stone or more better than its current mark.

I also think the Greatwood (haven't looked at it yet - shame on me) has evolved into the most important handicap hurdle this side of the Schweppes.
 
Marble said:
This may sound crazy, but Splash Of Ginge has been entered for this. He also is entered at Wetherby in two days time. Historically he needs some serious cut in the ground, to put his best foot forward, but he is seven pound lower than when winning a valuable chase on New Years day at Cheltenham in 2015. The handicapper has given him a chance, and I'd like to see how he goes at Wetherby on Friday, hopefully with plenty of juice in the ground. There may be a revival in Splash Of Ginge if he gets his soft ground..
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Hope you won fortunes martin
 
viking said:
Theinval looks good value at 25/1 with the sponsor paying 5 places. Nico on Days of Heaven but Jerry McGrath gets on well with this horse so not concerned by that. Looked as if NJH had left plenty to work on last time out


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That lasted a long time! Probably wouldn’t have figured on the ground anyway

Well done Splash of Ginge backers


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Marble said:
This may sound crazy, but Splash Of Ginge has been entered for this. He also is entered at Wetherby in two days time. Historically he needs some serious cut in the ground, to put his best foot forward, but he is seven pound lower than when winning a valuable chase on New Years day at Cheltenham in 2015. The handicapper has given him a chance, and I'd like to see how he goes at Wetherby on Friday, hopefully with plenty of juice in the ground. There may be a revival in Splash Of Ginge if he gets his soft ground..
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Vomit bucket required. :)
 
Desert Orchid said:

I could include Splash Of Ginge on his very best old form which was over this CD but I doubt he has the winning of this and he may be there to ensure no prisoners are taken in the quest to set up the race for Foxtail Hill.
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Bastert.

Well done anyone who backed him.

I thought it was a smashing race, though. All the right horses there at the end.
 
What a terrible days betting I've had. Ginge always seems to have a big race in it, I back it never anything. Taken the rub of the horse in second on though. Good run, I just can't be bothered trying to spell it.
 
Tanlic said:
Hope you won fortunes martin
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I didn't have a pound-coin on mate as the last run at Wetherby signalled no return to form whatsoever. If he'd ran any sort of race then i'd have stuck with him. I appreciate your comments, it wasn't meant to be.
 
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Marb; I'd been out shopping and got back much later than I'd planned; Mike shouted to me that the going at Cheltenham was bottomless so [thankfully] I rushed to the computer and threw some money at the bottom weights in the race, including Ginge. Annoyingly, in a later race I backed all the heavy ground horses, only to miss out the winner because I thought it had too much weight.
 
Well done Moe. My Mohaayed each way bet is one I will be disappointed if I can't get a return on. At 12s I'll double my stake money if he places, but a win would be much better.
 
Couldn't get on yesterday to post my finalised bets. Don't know what went on with the weather. I was discussing with I think Euro that it was a shame they hadn't had a bit of rain to help Kylemore loughs chance. I later saw somebody say there was rain forecast so I checked Met office and BBC forecast which said overcast but dry. I placed all my bets on the morning then when I tuned into ITV to see the first race I just put my head in my hands. The ground was the be all and end all for Splash of Ginge I wrote him off in my write up saying he needed to be up to his knees in it (which by off time he was). Had I known prior to placing the bets the state of the ground then I'd have certainly included him in the trifecta attempt so suffice to say I spent most of yesterday afternoon bashing my head up the wall as did Marble by the sounds of it.

I think the 2nd and the 3rd will turn out to be very good horses this year I think Starchitect will eventually make up into a nice staying type and Le Prezien will be seen to better effect over 2 and a half when getting better ground maybe the Ryan Air winner.
 
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