Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,012
I haven't had the time or the inclination to do one of these for many a moon, but boredom got the better of me last night, so I threw myself into a full preview of the race. Current ratings defined here are as per the RP database, and are therefore subject to inaccuracies, as some of them may be revised before the weights come out next week. Other inaccuracies are wholly down to me, so usual health-warning applies. I hope you find it an enjoyable read - even if the content does turn out to be a load of old boll*ocks.
Fingers crossed the formatting is OK.
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[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]A TOI PHIL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 159
Trainer: Gordon Elliot (IRE)
All best runs on Heavy ground. Has been tried at 3m, and possible they are not certain what best trip is, though recent run was a winning one (some fair sorts in behind) over 2m4f on Heavy. Hard raced since joining Elliot - 12 runs in a calendar year. Likely to want further on Cheltenham ground, and handicapped to the hilt[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]AQUA DUDE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 139
Trainer: Evan Williams
Beaten a long way in fair handicaps, though this is his trip, and likely to get his ground. Recent run was winning one, so will strip fit, but balance of form leaves him with plenty to find[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]ART MAURESQUE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 150
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Well beaten in this last year off mark of 156, and little encouragement in subsequent runs. Dropped to 150, so back to last winning mark. Would seem to need further leniency from handicapper, to have a chance.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]ASO (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 156
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Beaten only 5L by TDS off a mark of 144 last year, and ran with credit in both Caspian Caviar and Ryanair Chases. (though not so well at Trials meeting in between). Would be of interest if handicapper dropped him a few more pounds, as has run under his belt in October, finishing well-beaten, but looking like he would come on for race, in Old Roan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALL D'ARC (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 151
Trainer: Gordon Elliot (IRE)
Smart and highly-tried novice last season, running 13 times over fences. Most runs came at around 2m, but showed good form in defeat behind Road To Respect over 20f at Punchestown Festival, where he may have been feeling the effects of his long campaign. Handicap mark looks fair enough, but all his best form has come on ground softer than he is likely to encounter here.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALLOTIN (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 143
Trainer: PJ Hobbs
Rated 142 (C&H) over hurdles in France, but lower over fences - may have preferfence for quicker going. Won Wetherby handicap off 139 (by a neck, idled) from 128-rated Monbeg River (revd 4lbs) on first start for Hobbs, and due to contest race in Auteuil on Saturday[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALLYALTON (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]10yo
Rated 143
Trainer: Ian Wiliams
Beaten 10L by Bags Groove (received 6lbs) over hurdles on reappearance, though boasts smart form at Cheltenham, including Festival novices handicap win off 140. Only 3lbs higher now, and could make his presence felt from a relatively low-weight, though age not exactly on his side[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALLYBOLLEY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 149
Trainer: Neil King
Won at Market Rasen on re-appearance, though beat questionable field. Seems harshly treated by handicapper, for winning soft-looking races, and other preferred[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALLYCASEY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]10yo
Rated 157
Trainer: WP Mullins
Veteran chaser, who won showed he still has the fight in him, with four wins in latest season. All of those came on Soft/Heavy ground, however, and in small-feild affairs (some good horses in behind), which he is unlikely to get here. Very admirable, but faces tall order - not least because he has disappointed in all three previous runs at Cheltenham[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BELAMI DES PICTONS (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 148
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Good strike-rate, but smartly-placed at a low-level by trainer, and could be out-classed in a hot handicap like this. Not run since Feb 2017, and therefore has long absence to overcome too.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BENTELIMAR (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 137
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon
Second-season novice with poor strike-rate in Irish chases, prior to sale to Charlie Longsdon. Emphatic win over Dicosimo in summer looks an abberation, and has had jumping issues.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BOUVREUIL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 145
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Losing streak over fences goes back a long way (early 2016), but appears to save best for Cheltenham, running with some credit in both pre-Xmas handicaps, and again at Festival. Looks a little one-paced, and seems likely to find it tough[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]CLAN DES OBEAUX (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]5yo
Rated 148
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Looks harshly treated off current mark which is likely due to proximity to Whisper in novice chase at Trials meeting. Has reasonable track form, and age on his side, but balance of form leaves him with a bit to find[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]CLOUDY DREAM (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 155
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Smart form at 2m to 2m4f, and looked like he might come on for run behind Smad Place in Old Roan, though Handicapper may punish that run. Shortlist material.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]DANDRIDGE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 138
Trainer: ALT Moore (IRE)
Has some fair form in Cheltenham handicaps, but losing-streak goes back a long way. Handicapper has relented, but zero encouragement from recent runs, including two handicap starts in October[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]DAYS OF HEAVEN (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 149
Trainer: NJ Henderson
Beaten long-way in both Cheltenham hurdles starts, and highly-tried in US outings in 2016 thereafter. Won 3 minor events during summer 2017, before disappointing effort in Summer Plate. Solid effort in trying to condede 11lbs to Romain De Senam at Stratford in October, and weighted to reverse form. Potentially interesting[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]DOUBLE TREASURE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 150
Trainer: Jamie Snowden
Has risen 40lbs in the handicap in the space of four runs, the latest uplift of 13lb coming after a cosy win in a 20f handicap at the Open meeting. There's no obvious explanation for the huge improvement, and whilst it's potentially entirely legitimate, is certain to find things much tougher off his revised mark, in a much more competitive field than he faced last time[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]FOXTAIL HILL (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 147
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Boasts some smart track form, including handicap wins at the Trails meeting in January (off 133) and the Showcase meeting last month (off 140). The latter represents his highest winning mark, and is bound to find it tougher again, from his revised rating, and is by no means certain to confirm the form with Le Prezien. Others preferred.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]FRODON (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 152
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Well beaten in this last year off 151, after running-up a sequence. Perhaps proved that run wrong when winning the Caspian Caviar at the International meeting, and two further races (including a G2) thereafter, and poor showing at Aintree perhaps down to the effects of a long novice campaign. Well beaten on seasonal reappearance, but is generally consistent, and handicap mark probably fair enough. May prefer the stiffer stamina test represented by the New Course, but hard to discount entirely. [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]GARDE LA VICTOIRE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 156
Trainer: PJ Hobbs
Stamina has never been conclusively proven at this trip, and is likely best at around 2m. The Handicapper has not relented either, and looks to have a very stiff task.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]GO CONQUER (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 142
Trainer: Jonjo O'Neill
Failed to see out trips at around 3m last season, and returned a cosy winner of a Class 2 Fontwell handicap last month, when dropped back to 21f. Put up 7lbs for that, and now on a career-high mark. Chase wins have come in less competitive races, and - on balance - faces stiff task.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]GOLD PRESENT (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 142
Trainer: NJ Henderson
Best efforts last season when chasing hom Frodon in the Pendil, and Tully East in the Close Brothers at the Festival, and still going well enough when tipped-up in the Topham at the National meeting. Feasibly weighted on the former two performances.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]GUITAR PETE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 137
Trainer: Nicky Richards
Hasn't won a chase since August 2015, and little in way of encouragement following move from Sandra Hughes to Nicky Richards this summer. Soundly beaten last-time-out in receipt of 21lbs from Ballyboley.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]KYLECRUE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]10yo
Rated 138
Trainer: John Patrick Ryan (IRE)
Veteran handicapper whose wins (6-from-30) have all come on Soft or Heavy ground in small fields. Isn't entirely badly handicapped (2lbs lower than last winning mark) but will surely need bottomless ground in order to get in any way competitive.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]KYLEMORE LOUGH[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 154
Trainer: Harry Fry
Consistent performer in handicaps and Graded class, his only disappointing outing came when upped to 3m in the Cotswold Chase. Ran Frodon (received 14lbs) to 2L in the Caspian Caviar last season, looks feasibly handicapped, and his recent move to Harry Fry could bring about further improvement. Major player, though slight suspicion he may be a little better going right-handed[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]LAKE TAKAPUNA (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 127
Trainer: JH Culloty (IRE)
Has little scraps of fair form, but hasn't shown anything to suggest he is capable of winning a race as competitive as this, and stamina might be tested at this kind of trip on a stiff track[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]LE PREZIEN (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 150
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Just touched-off by Foxtail Hill (received 4lbs) over C&D at the Showcase meeting in seasonal opener. Raised 6lbs for that, but can be expected to come on for the run. Slight concerns about his jumping[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]MASTER DEE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 144
Trainer: Feargal O'Brien
Best effort over fences came behind Ballyboley in Summer Plate (beaten 5L conceding 1lb). Runs have come almost exclusively on right-handed tracks, and has to be a concern about him acting at Cheltenham. Jumping could do with improvement, tends to find little off the bridle, and can be a difficult ride[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]MINELLA PRESENT (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo.
Rated 137
Trainer: Neil Mullholland
Looked to have improved a little when upped in trip to intermediate distance when last seen in a Class 2 at Uttoxeter in May 2016, but appears inconsistent, and faces a monumental task here, after such a long break[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]MYSTIFIABLE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40/1[/TD]
[TD]9yo
Rated 130
Trainer: Feargal O'Brien
Well beaten behind Romain De Senam at Chepstow on seasonal re-appearance, where he had a tendency to jump right. Has won chases at a lower level, and lightly-raced over fences, but faces tall order here, if taking his chance[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]PLAISIR D'AMOUR (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]5yo
Rated 138
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Convincing winner over 2m5f on New Course at the April meeting, and probably turned-out too quickly a week later at Sandown. Is of some minor interest, given trainer's ability to get them ready after a break.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]POLITOLOGUE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 154
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Overall form is rock-solid, and a little unlucky not to win at Aintree (stumbled after jumping last) to close-out last season. Handicapper has not missed him, however, and doesn't look especially well-treated off current mark. Likely to run his race.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]QUITE BY CHANCE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 144
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Beaten just over 2L when trying to concede 5lbs to Frodon in the Caspian Caviar last season, is now almost a stone better-off with that horse, but two subsequent runs at Cheltenham (all came on new Course) disappointing, and was a no-show in the Topham behind stablemate Ultragold[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]ROMAIN DE SENAM (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12/1[/TD]
[TD]5yo
Rated 145
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Opened season with wins at Chepstow (convincing, off a low-weight) and Stratford (less so). Now 12lbs higher than when he started the season, and handicapper appears to be catching-up with him. Will need to improve again.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]SAMETEGAL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 144
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Last seen when winning Newbury handicap chase in March 2016, but limitations exposed in previous runs, and handicapper doesn't appear to have been lenient in the intervening months. Was entered for Class2 at Stratford won by Romain De Senam, but was pulled with Vets Certificate. Clearly fragile, and easily overlooked in a hot-race.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]SAN BENEDETO (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 155
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Unseated only outing at Cheltenham last season, though won four times thereafter (including good handicaps at Ascot and Aintree), and fair-enough effort behind Altior in Celebration Chase at Sandown. Most runs have come at around 2m, looked non-stayer in all runs at around 20f, and handicapped to the hilt. [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]SPLASH OF GINGE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]9yo
Rated 138
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Handicapper has shown some leniency from high-water mark of 153 (gained January 2015 Trials meeting), but looks like he needs a trip on Soft ground, and will likely find things happening too quickly for him here[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]STARCHITECT (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 150
Trainer: DE Pipe
Returned to wiining ways on 2nd November, when comfortable winner of a Class 3 at Stratford, but well beaten in two Cheltenham handicap runs last season from a lower mark. Will find it tough from revised mark (likely to be raised further for yesterday's win).[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]THEINVAL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 148
Trainer: NJ Henderson
Solid enough efforts last season when placed in all outings (winning once in minor event at Plumpton) but tends to find at least one too good, and suspicion is he is better over 2m. [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]TOP GAMBLE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]9yo
Rated 159
Trainer: Kerry Lee
Ran with credit in three-of-four Cheltenham outings last season, notably when placing behind Un De Sceaux in the Clarence House. Handicapper hasn't missed that run, however, and whilst current mark is thereabouts, that's been derived from runs over minimum trip, and he has yet to convince he has the stamina for this. [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]TRAFFIC FLUIDE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 156
Trainer: Gary Moore
Similar profile to Top Gamble, and whilst handicapper has relented from highest rating of 162, stamina questions remain, and likely better over 2m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]TULLY EAST (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 144
Trainer: Alan Fleming (IRE)
Comfortable winner of Close Brothers Novice at Festival, before disappointing in next run at Punchestown, dropped back to 2m. Well beaten by Campeador last month over minimum trip, and whilst 6lb higher than for his Festival win, has fitness on his side, and track form cannot be ignored. Shortlist material[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]VICONTE DU NOYER (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 150
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Won 3m3f handicap at Open Meeting in 2016 on first start for Colin Tizzard, and mainly confined to trips beyond 3m since. Only outing over 20f was at Punchestown, where he again shaped like a stayer. Handicap mark looks on the high side, and faces stiff task to get competitive here[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]WAITING PATIENTLY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 150
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Progressive novice and unbeaten last season (including cosy defeat of Politologue in receiopt of 3lbs) at Haydock. Met with a setback and not seen since, and whilst feasibly handicapped if well-being confirmed, it will take a very good performance to win this, after such a long absence[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]ZAMDY MAN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 140
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Won a couple of mionor novices last season, before shaping like a non-stayer behind Tully East in the Close Brothers. Not seen since, and suspicion is he is better at 2m[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Conclusion
Ball D’Arc would be of major interest to me if coming across for this, though given he seems very ground-dependent, I suspect he will be kept at home for another target - possibly the John Durkan, or one of the series of Graded 2m chases in Ireland run before the Xmas meetings.
Waiting Patiently still has stack of promise and is trained by a top man in Malcolm Jefferson, but has a long absence to overcome, and there are seemingly no guarantees of a run.
Ballotin remains of interest longer-term, but is scheduled to run in the Prix de France at Auteuil tomorrow, and a big run there would doubtless see the handicapper get involved before the weights are released next week. Even if Hobbs was able to turn him around in time, he could be handed a big-weight, and he is therefore reluctantly bypassed.
Kylemore Lough is a better-handicapped animal than I suspected, and is probably a few lbs ahead of the game, off his current mark of 154. I do have a nagging feeling that he is a better horse going right-handed though, and at his current odds, I feel compelled to swerve him, for something at a juicier price.
Having had a deeper look at the race, I suspect I probably pulled the trigger a little earlier than desirable with Venetia’s Aso, and whilst it’s a reasonable expectation that he will be dropped a little for his run behind Smad Place in the Old Roan, I think he’d need about 6lbs relief, to get truly competitive here, which leave me with a rather long-looking shortlist of four for the race.
One of Venetia’s other entries, Plaisir D’Amour, will get into this off a feather-weight, and at current odds of 33/1, comes into consideration. Another outer that might be worth chancing, is Days Of Heaven. His profile is not exactly orthodox for a horse running in this event, but he gets a sizeable pull with Romain De Senam for their Stratford outing, and is three times the price.
Tully East’s last two runs can be ignored, and he does not appear to have been unduly punished for what was, in the end, a fairly emphatic win in the Novice Handicap at the festival. I figure he is a major player.
Politologue’s form ties in very closely with Waiting Patiently’s, and this super-consistent type is almost certain to give his running. I confess I was surprised to find him available at 25/1, and he looks to have a really good each-way chance, given the trainer’s record in the race. POLITOLOGUE is therefore the main selection, and I will combine him in Forecasts and Tricasts with Tully East, Plaisir D’Amour and Days Of Heaven.
Fingers crossed the formatting is OK.
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<tbody>[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]A TOI PHIL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 159
Trainer: Gordon Elliot (IRE)
All best runs on Heavy ground. Has been tried at 3m, and possible they are not certain what best trip is, though recent run was a winning one (some fair sorts in behind) over 2m4f on Heavy. Hard raced since joining Elliot - 12 runs in a calendar year. Likely to want further on Cheltenham ground, and handicapped to the hilt[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]AQUA DUDE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 139
Trainer: Evan Williams
Beaten a long way in fair handicaps, though this is his trip, and likely to get his ground. Recent run was winning one, so will strip fit, but balance of form leaves him with plenty to find[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]ART MAURESQUE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 150
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Well beaten in this last year off mark of 156, and little encouragement in subsequent runs. Dropped to 150, so back to last winning mark. Would seem to need further leniency from handicapper, to have a chance.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]ASO (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 156
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Beaten only 5L by TDS off a mark of 144 last year, and ran with credit in both Caspian Caviar and Ryanair Chases. (though not so well at Trials meeting in between). Would be of interest if handicapper dropped him a few more pounds, as has run under his belt in October, finishing well-beaten, but looking like he would come on for race, in Old Roan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALL D'ARC (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 151
Trainer: Gordon Elliot (IRE)
Smart and highly-tried novice last season, running 13 times over fences. Most runs came at around 2m, but showed good form in defeat behind Road To Respect over 20f at Punchestown Festival, where he may have been feeling the effects of his long campaign. Handicap mark looks fair enough, but all his best form has come on ground softer than he is likely to encounter here.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALLOTIN (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 143
Trainer: PJ Hobbs
Rated 142 (C&H) over hurdles in France, but lower over fences - may have preferfence for quicker going. Won Wetherby handicap off 139 (by a neck, idled) from 128-rated Monbeg River (revd 4lbs) on first start for Hobbs, and due to contest race in Auteuil on Saturday[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALLYALTON (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]10yo
Rated 143
Trainer: Ian Wiliams
Beaten 10L by Bags Groove (received 6lbs) over hurdles on reappearance, though boasts smart form at Cheltenham, including Festival novices handicap win off 140. Only 3lbs higher now, and could make his presence felt from a relatively low-weight, though age not exactly on his side[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALLYBOLLEY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 149
Trainer: Neil King
Won at Market Rasen on re-appearance, though beat questionable field. Seems harshly treated by handicapper, for winning soft-looking races, and other preferred[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BALLYCASEY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]10yo
Rated 157
Trainer: WP Mullins
Veteran chaser, who won showed he still has the fight in him, with four wins in latest season. All of those came on Soft/Heavy ground, however, and in small-feild affairs (some good horses in behind), which he is unlikely to get here. Very admirable, but faces tall order - not least because he has disappointed in all three previous runs at Cheltenham[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BELAMI DES PICTONS (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 148
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Good strike-rate, but smartly-placed at a low-level by trainer, and could be out-classed in a hot handicap like this. Not run since Feb 2017, and therefore has long absence to overcome too.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BENTELIMAR (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 137
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon
Second-season novice with poor strike-rate in Irish chases, prior to sale to Charlie Longsdon. Emphatic win over Dicosimo in summer looks an abberation, and has had jumping issues.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]BOUVREUIL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 145
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Losing streak over fences goes back a long way (early 2016), but appears to save best for Cheltenham, running with some credit in both pre-Xmas handicaps, and again at Festival. Looks a little one-paced, and seems likely to find it tough[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]CLAN DES OBEAUX (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]5yo
Rated 148
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Looks harshly treated off current mark which is likely due to proximity to Whisper in novice chase at Trials meeting. Has reasonable track form, and age on his side, but balance of form leaves him with a bit to find[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]CLOUDY DREAM (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]14/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 155
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Smart form at 2m to 2m4f, and looked like he might come on for run behind Smad Place in Old Roan, though Handicapper may punish that run. Shortlist material.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]DANDRIDGE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 138
Trainer: ALT Moore (IRE)
Has some fair form in Cheltenham handicaps, but losing-streak goes back a long way. Handicapper has relented, but zero encouragement from recent runs, including two handicap starts in October[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]DAYS OF HEAVEN (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 149
Trainer: NJ Henderson
Beaten long-way in both Cheltenham hurdles starts, and highly-tried in US outings in 2016 thereafter. Won 3 minor events during summer 2017, before disappointing effort in Summer Plate. Solid effort in trying to condede 11lbs to Romain De Senam at Stratford in October, and weighted to reverse form. Potentially interesting[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]DOUBLE TREASURE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 150
Trainer: Jamie Snowden
Has risen 40lbs in the handicap in the space of four runs, the latest uplift of 13lb coming after a cosy win in a 20f handicap at the Open meeting. There's no obvious explanation for the huge improvement, and whilst it's potentially entirely legitimate, is certain to find things much tougher off his revised mark, in a much more competitive field than he faced last time[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]FOXTAIL HILL (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 147
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Boasts some smart track form, including handicap wins at the Trails meeting in January (off 133) and the Showcase meeting last month (off 140). The latter represents his highest winning mark, and is bound to find it tougher again, from his revised rating, and is by no means certain to confirm the form with Le Prezien. Others preferred.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]FRODON (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 152
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Well beaten in this last year off 151, after running-up a sequence. Perhaps proved that run wrong when winning the Caspian Caviar at the International meeting, and two further races (including a G2) thereafter, and poor showing at Aintree perhaps down to the effects of a long novice campaign. Well beaten on seasonal reappearance, but is generally consistent, and handicap mark probably fair enough. May prefer the stiffer stamina test represented by the New Course, but hard to discount entirely. [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]GARDE LA VICTOIRE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 156
Trainer: PJ Hobbs
Stamina has never been conclusively proven at this trip, and is likely best at around 2m. The Handicapper has not relented either, and looks to have a very stiff task.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]GO CONQUER (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 142
Trainer: Jonjo O'Neill
Failed to see out trips at around 3m last season, and returned a cosy winner of a Class 2 Fontwell handicap last month, when dropped back to 21f. Put up 7lbs for that, and now on a career-high mark. Chase wins have come in less competitive races, and - on balance - faces stiff task.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]GOLD PRESENT (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 142
Trainer: NJ Henderson
Best efforts last season when chasing hom Frodon in the Pendil, and Tully East in the Close Brothers at the Festival, and still going well enough when tipped-up in the Topham at the National meeting. Feasibly weighted on the former two performances.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]GUITAR PETE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 137
Trainer: Nicky Richards
Hasn't won a chase since August 2015, and little in way of encouragement following move from Sandra Hughes to Nicky Richards this summer. Soundly beaten last-time-out in receipt of 21lbs from Ballyboley.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]KYLECRUE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]10yo
Rated 138
Trainer: John Patrick Ryan (IRE)
Veteran handicapper whose wins (6-from-30) have all come on Soft or Heavy ground in small fields. Isn't entirely badly handicapped (2lbs lower than last winning mark) but will surely need bottomless ground in order to get in any way competitive.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]KYLEMORE LOUGH[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]10/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 154
Trainer: Harry Fry
Consistent performer in handicaps and Graded class, his only disappointing outing came when upped to 3m in the Cotswold Chase. Ran Frodon (received 14lbs) to 2L in the Caspian Caviar last season, looks feasibly handicapped, and his recent move to Harry Fry could bring about further improvement. Major player, though slight suspicion he may be a little better going right-handed[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]LAKE TAKAPUNA (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 127
Trainer: JH Culloty (IRE)
Has little scraps of fair form, but hasn't shown anything to suggest he is capable of winning a race as competitive as this, and stamina might be tested at this kind of trip on a stiff track[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]LE PREZIEN (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 150
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Just touched-off by Foxtail Hill (received 4lbs) over C&D at the Showcase meeting in seasonal opener. Raised 6lbs for that, but can be expected to come on for the run. Slight concerns about his jumping[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]MASTER DEE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 144
Trainer: Feargal O'Brien
Best effort over fences came behind Ballyboley in Summer Plate (beaten 5L conceding 1lb). Runs have come almost exclusively on right-handed tracks, and has to be a concern about him acting at Cheltenham. Jumping could do with improvement, tends to find little off the bridle, and can be a difficult ride[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]MINELLA PRESENT (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo.
Rated 137
Trainer: Neil Mullholland
Looked to have improved a little when upped in trip to intermediate distance when last seen in a Class 2 at Uttoxeter in May 2016, but appears inconsistent, and faces a monumental task here, after such a long break[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]MYSTIFIABLE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40/1[/TD]
[TD]9yo
Rated 130
Trainer: Feargal O'Brien
Well beaten behind Romain De Senam at Chepstow on seasonal re-appearance, where he had a tendency to jump right. Has won chases at a lower level, and lightly-raced over fences, but faces tall order here, if taking his chance[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]PLAISIR D'AMOUR (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]5yo
Rated 138
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Convincing winner over 2m5f on New Course at the April meeting, and probably turned-out too quickly a week later at Sandown. Is of some minor interest, given trainer's ability to get them ready after a break.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]POLITOLOGUE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 154
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Overall form is rock-solid, and a little unlucky not to win at Aintree (stumbled after jumping last) to close-out last season. Handicapper has not missed him, however, and doesn't look especially well-treated off current mark. Likely to run his race.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]QUITE BY CHANCE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 144
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Beaten just over 2L when trying to concede 5lbs to Frodon in the Caspian Caviar last season, is now almost a stone better-off with that horse, but two subsequent runs at Cheltenham (all came on new Course) disappointing, and was a no-show in the Topham behind stablemate Ultragold[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]ROMAIN DE SENAM (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12/1[/TD]
[TD]5yo
Rated 145
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Opened season with wins at Chepstow (convincing, off a low-weight) and Stratford (less so). Now 12lbs higher than when he started the season, and handicapper appears to be catching-up with him. Will need to improve again.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]SAMETEGAL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 144
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Last seen when winning Newbury handicap chase in March 2016, but limitations exposed in previous runs, and handicapper doesn't appear to have been lenient in the intervening months. Was entered for Class2 at Stratford won by Romain De Senam, but was pulled with Vets Certificate. Clearly fragile, and easily overlooked in a hot-race.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]SAN BENEDETO (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 155
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Unseated only outing at Cheltenham last season, though won four times thereafter (including good handicaps at Ascot and Aintree), and fair-enough effort behind Altior in Celebration Chase at Sandown. Most runs have come at around 2m, looked non-stayer in all runs at around 20f, and handicapped to the hilt. [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]SPLASH OF GINGE[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]9yo
Rated 138
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Handicapper has shown some leniency from high-water mark of 153 (gained January 2015 Trials meeting), but looks like he needs a trip on Soft ground, and will likely find things happening too quickly for him here[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]STARCHITECT (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 150
Trainer: DE Pipe
Returned to wiining ways on 2nd November, when comfortable winner of a Class 3 at Stratford, but well beaten in two Cheltenham handicap runs last season from a lower mark. Will find it tough from revised mark (likely to be raised further for yesterday's win).[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]THEINVAL (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 148
Trainer: NJ Henderson
Solid enough efforts last season when placed in all outings (winning once in minor event at Plumpton) but tends to find at least one too good, and suspicion is he is better over 2m. [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]TOP GAMBLE (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]9yo
Rated 159
Trainer: Kerry Lee
Ran with credit in three-of-four Cheltenham outings last season, notably when placing behind Un De Sceaux in the Clarence House. Handicapper hasn't missed that run, however, and whilst current mark is thereabouts, that's been derived from runs over minimum trip, and he has yet to convince he has the stamina for this. [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]TRAFFIC FLUIDE (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 156
Trainer: Gary Moore
Similar profile to Top Gamble, and whilst handicapper has relented from highest rating of 162, stamina questions remain, and likely better over 2m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]TULLY EAST (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]7yo
Rated 144
Trainer: Alan Fleming (IRE)
Comfortable winner of Close Brothers Novice at Festival, before disappointing in next run at Punchestown, dropped back to 2m. Well beaten by Campeador last month over minimum trip, and whilst 6lb higher than for his Festival win, has fitness on his side, and track form cannot be ignored. Shortlist material[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]VICONTE DU NOYER (FR)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 150
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Won 3m3f handicap at Open Meeting in 2016 on first start for Colin Tizzard, and mainly confined to trips beyond 3m since. Only outing over 20f was at Punchestown, where he again shaped like a stayer. Handicap mark looks on the high side, and faces stiff task to get competitive here[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]WAITING PATIENTLY (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25/1[/TD]
[TD]6yo
Rated 150
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Progressive novice and unbeaten last season (including cosy defeat of Politologue in receiopt of 3lbs) at Haydock. Met with a setback and not seen since, and whilst feasibly handicapped if well-being confirmed, it will take a very good performance to win this, after such a long absence[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: #fafafa"]ZAMDY MAN[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33/1[/TD]
[TD]8yo
Rated 140
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Won a couple of mionor novices last season, before shaping like a non-stayer behind Tully East in the Close Brothers. Not seen since, and suspicion is he is better at 2m[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Conclusion
Ball D’Arc would be of major interest to me if coming across for this, though given he seems very ground-dependent, I suspect he will be kept at home for another target - possibly the John Durkan, or one of the series of Graded 2m chases in Ireland run before the Xmas meetings.
Waiting Patiently still has stack of promise and is trained by a top man in Malcolm Jefferson, but has a long absence to overcome, and there are seemingly no guarantees of a run.
Ballotin remains of interest longer-term, but is scheduled to run in the Prix de France at Auteuil tomorrow, and a big run there would doubtless see the handicapper get involved before the weights are released next week. Even if Hobbs was able to turn him around in time, he could be handed a big-weight, and he is therefore reluctantly bypassed.
Kylemore Lough is a better-handicapped animal than I suspected, and is probably a few lbs ahead of the game, off his current mark of 154. I do have a nagging feeling that he is a better horse going right-handed though, and at his current odds, I feel compelled to swerve him, for something at a juicier price.
Having had a deeper look at the race, I suspect I probably pulled the trigger a little earlier than desirable with Venetia’s Aso, and whilst it’s a reasonable expectation that he will be dropped a little for his run behind Smad Place in the Old Roan, I think he’d need about 6lbs relief, to get truly competitive here, which leave me with a rather long-looking shortlist of four for the race.
One of Venetia’s other entries, Plaisir D’Amour, will get into this off a feather-weight, and at current odds of 33/1, comes into consideration. Another outer that might be worth chancing, is Days Of Heaven. His profile is not exactly orthodox for a horse running in this event, but he gets a sizeable pull with Romain De Senam for their Stratford outing, and is three times the price.
Tully East’s last two runs can be ignored, and he does not appear to have been unduly punished for what was, in the end, a fairly emphatic win in the Novice Handicap at the festival. I figure he is a major player.
Politologue’s form ties in very closely with Waiting Patiently’s, and this super-consistent type is almost certain to give his running. I confess I was surprised to find him available at 25/1, and he looks to have a really good each-way chance, given the trainer’s record in the race. POLITOLOGUE is therefore the main selection, and I will combine him in Forecasts and Tricasts with Tully East, Plaisir D’Amour and Days Of Heaven.
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