Bet Victor Gold Cup

I haven't had the time or the inclination to do one of these for many a moon, but boredom got the better of me last night, so I threw myself into a full preview of the race. Current ratings defined here are as per the RP database, and are therefore subject to inaccuracies, as some of them may be revised before the weights come out next week. Other inaccuracies are wholly down to me, so usual health-warning applies. I hope you find it an enjoyable read - even if the content does turn out to be a load of old boll*ocks.

Fingers crossed the formatting is OK.

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A TOI PHIL (FR)14/17yo
Rated 159
Trainer: Gordon Elliot (IRE)
All best runs on Heavy ground. Has been tried at 3m, and possible they are not certain what best trip is, though recent run was a winning one (some fair sorts in behind) over 2m4f on Heavy. Hard raced since joining Elliot - 12 runs in a calendar year. Likely to want further on Cheltenham ground, and handicapped to the hilt
AQUA DUDE (IRE)33/17yo
Rated 139
Trainer: Evan Williams
Beaten a long way in fair handicaps, though this is his trip, and likely to get his ground. Recent run was winning one, so will strip fit, but balance of form leaves him with plenty to find
ART MAURESQUE (FR)16/17yo
Rated 150
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Well beaten in this last year off mark of 156, and little encouragement in subsequent runs. Dropped to 150, so back to last winning mark. Would seem to need further leniency from handicapper, to have a chance.
ASO (FR)33/17yo
Rated 156
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Beaten only 5L by TDS off a mark of 144 last year, and ran with credit in both Caspian Caviar and Ryanair Chases. (though not so well at Trials meeting in between). Would be of interest if handicapper dropped him a few more pounds, as has run under his belt in October, finishing well-beaten, but looking like he would come on for race, in Old Roan
BALL D'ARC (FR)20/16yo
Rated 151
Trainer: Gordon Elliot (IRE)
Smart and highly-tried novice last season, running 13 times over fences. Most runs came at around 2m, but showed good form in defeat behind Road To Respect over 20f at Punchestown Festival, where he may have been feeling the effects of his long campaign. Handicap mark looks fair enough, but all his best form has come on ground softer than he is likely to encounter here.
BALLOTIN (FR)25/16yo
Rated 143
Trainer: PJ Hobbs
Rated 142 (C&H) over hurdles in France, but lower over fences - may have preferfence for quicker going. Won Wetherby handicap off 139 (by a neck, idled) from 128-rated Monbeg River (revd 4lbs) on first start for Hobbs, and due to contest race in Auteuil on Saturday
BALLYALTON (IRE)25/110yo
Rated 143
Trainer: Ian Wiliams
Beaten 10L by Bags Groove (received 6lbs) over hurdles on reappearance, though boasts smart form at Cheltenham, including Festival novices handicap win off 140. Only 3lbs higher now, and could make his presence felt from a relatively low-weight, though age not exactly on his side
BALLYBOLLEY (IRE)20/18yo
Rated 149
Trainer: Neil King
Won at Market Rasen on re-appearance, though beat questionable field. Seems harshly treated by handicapper, for winning soft-looking races, and other preferred
BALLYCASEY (IRE)20/110yo
Rated 157
Trainer: WP Mullins
Veteran chaser, who won showed he still has the fight in him, with four wins in latest season. All of those came on Soft/Heavy ground, however, and in small-feild affairs (some good horses in behind), which he is unlikely to get here. Very admirable, but faces tall order - not least because he has disappointed in all three previous runs at Cheltenham
BELAMI DES PICTONS (FR)20/16yo
Rated 148
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Good strike-rate, but smartly-placed at a low-level by trainer, and could be out-classed in a hot handicap like this. Not run since Feb 2017, and therefore has long absence to overcome too.
BENTELIMAR (IRE)33/18yo
Rated 137
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon
Second-season novice with poor strike-rate in Irish chases, prior to sale to Charlie Longsdon. Emphatic win over Dicosimo in summer looks an abberation, and has had jumping issues.
BOUVREUIL (FR)33/16yo
Rated 145
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Losing streak over fences goes back a long way (early 2016), but appears to save best for Cheltenham, running with some credit in both pre-Xmas handicaps, and again at Festival. Looks a little one-paced, and seems likely to find it tough
CLAN DES OBEAUX (FR)25/15yo
Rated 148
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Looks harshly treated off current mark which is likely due to proximity to Whisper in novice chase at Trials meeting. Has reasonable track form, and age on his side, but balance of form leaves him with a bit to find
CLOUDY DREAM (IRE)14/17yo
Rated 155
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Smart form at 2m to 2m4f, and looked like he might come on for run behind Smad Place in Old Roan, though Handicapper may punish that run. Shortlist material.
DANDRIDGE33/18yo
Rated 138
Trainer: ALT Moore (IRE)
Has some fair form in Cheltenham handicaps, but losing-streak goes back a long way. Handicapper has relented, but zero encouragement from recent runs, including two handicap starts in October
DAYS OF HEAVEN (FR)33/17yo
Rated 149
Trainer: NJ Henderson
Beaten long-way in both Cheltenham hurdles starts, and highly-tried in US outings in 2016 thereafter. Won 3 minor events during summer 2017, before disappointing effort in Summer Plate. Solid effort in trying to condede 11lbs to Romain De Senam at Stratford in October, and weighted to reverse form. Potentially interesting
DOUBLE TREASURE16/16yo
Rated 150
Trainer: Jamie Snowden
Has risen 40lbs in the handicap in the space of four runs, the latest uplift of 13lb coming after a cosy win in a 20f handicap at the Open meeting. There's no obvious explanation for the huge improvement, and whilst it's potentially entirely legitimate, is certain to find things much tougher off his revised mark, in a much more competitive field than he faced last time
FOXTAIL HILL (IRE)20/18yo
Rated 147
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Boasts some smart track form, including handicap wins at the Trails meeting in January (off 133) and the Showcase meeting last month (off 140). The latter represents his highest winning mark, and is bound to find it tougher again, from his revised rating, and is by no means certain to confirm the form with Le Prezien. Others preferred.
FRODON (FR)33/16yo
Rated 152
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Well beaten in this last year off 151, after running-up a sequence. Perhaps proved that run wrong when winning the Caspian Caviar at the International meeting, and two further races (including a G2) thereafter, and poor showing at Aintree perhaps down to the effects of a long novice campaign. Well beaten on seasonal reappearance, but is generally consistent, and handicap mark probably fair enough. May prefer the stiffer stamina test represented by the New Course, but hard to discount entirely.
GARDE LA VICTOIRE (FR)20/18yo
Rated 156
Trainer: PJ Hobbs
Stamina has never been conclusively proven at this trip, and is likely best at around 2m. The Handicapper has not relented either, and looks to have a very stiff task.
GO CONQUER (IRE)25/18yo
Rated 142
Trainer: Jonjo O'Neill
Failed to see out trips at around 3m last season, and returned a cosy winner of a Class 2 Fontwell handicap last month, when dropped back to 21f. Put up 7lbs for that, and now on a career-high mark. Chase wins have come in less competitive races, and - on balance - faces stiff task.
GOLD PRESENT (IRE)16/17yo
Rated 142
Trainer: NJ Henderson
Best efforts last season when chasing hom Frodon in the Pendil, and Tully East in the Close Brothers at the Festival, and still going well enough when tipped-up in the Topham at the National meeting. Feasibly weighted on the former two performances.
GUITAR PETE (IRE)40/17yo
Rated 137
Trainer: Nicky Richards
Hasn't won a chase since August 2015, and little in way of encouragement following move from Sandra Hughes to Nicky Richards this summer. Soundly beaten last-time-out in receipt of 21lbs from Ballyboley.
KYLECRUE (IRE)33/110yo
Rated 138
Trainer: John Patrick Ryan (IRE)
Veteran handicapper whose wins (6-from-30) have all come on Soft or Heavy ground in small fields. Isn't entirely badly handicapped (2lbs lower than last winning mark) but will surely need bottomless ground in order to get in any way competitive.
KYLEMORE LOUGH10/18yo
Rated 154
Trainer: Harry Fry
Consistent performer in handicaps and Graded class, his only disappointing outing came when upped to 3m in the Cotswold Chase. Ran Frodon (received 14lbs) to 2L in the Caspian Caviar last season, looks feasibly handicapped, and his recent move to Harry Fry could bring about further improvement. Major player, though slight suspicion he may be a little better going right-handed
LAKE TAKAPUNA (IRE)33/16yo
Rated 127
Trainer: JH Culloty (IRE)
Has little scraps of fair form, but hasn't shown anything to suggest he is capable of winning a race as competitive as this, and stamina might be tested at this kind of trip on a stiff track
LE PREZIEN (FR)16/16yo
Rated 150
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Just touched-off by Foxtail Hill (received 4lbs) over C&D at the Showcase meeting in seasonal opener. Raised 6lbs for that, but can be expected to come on for the run. Slight concerns about his jumping
MASTER DEE (IRE)33/18yo
Rated 144
Trainer: Feargal O'Brien
Best effort over fences came behind Ballyboley in Summer Plate (beaten 5L conceding 1lb). Runs have come almost exclusively on right-handed tracks, and has to be a concern about him acting at Cheltenham. Jumping could do with improvement, tends to find little off the bridle, and can be a difficult ride
MINELLA PRESENT (IRE)33/18yo.
Rated 137
Trainer: Neil Mullholland
Looked to have improved a little when upped in trip to intermediate distance when last seen in a Class 2 at Uttoxeter in May 2016, but appears inconsistent, and faces a monumental task here, after such a long break
MYSTIFIABLE40/19yo
Rated 130
Trainer: Feargal O'Brien
Well beaten behind Romain De Senam at Chepstow on seasonal re-appearance, where he had a tendency to jump right. Has won chases at a lower level, and lightly-raced over fences, but faces tall order here, if taking his chance
PLAISIR D'AMOUR (FR)33/15yo
Rated 138
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Convincing winner over 2m5f on New Course at the April meeting, and probably turned-out too quickly a week later at Sandown. Is of some minor interest, given trainer's ability to get them ready after a break.
POLITOLOGUE (FR)25/16yo
Rated 154
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Overall form is rock-solid, and a little unlucky not to win at Aintree (stumbled after jumping last) to close-out last season. Handicapper has not missed him, however, and doesn't look especially well-treated off current mark. Likely to run his race.
QUITE BY CHANCE33/18yo
Rated 144
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Beaten just over 2L when trying to concede 5lbs to Frodon in the Caspian Caviar last season, is now almost a stone better-off with that horse, but two subsequent runs at Cheltenham (all came on new Course) disappointing, and was a no-show in the Topham behind stablemate Ultragold
ROMAIN DE SENAM (FR)12/15yo
Rated 145
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Opened season with wins at Chepstow (convincing, off a low-weight) and Stratford (less so). Now 12lbs higher than when he started the season, and handicapper appears to be catching-up with him. Will need to improve again.
SAMETEGAL (FR)20/18yo
Rated 144
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Last seen when winning Newbury handicap chase in March 2016, but limitations exposed in previous runs, and handicapper doesn't appear to have been lenient in the intervening months. Was entered for Class2 at Stratford won by Romain De Senam, but was pulled with Vets Certificate. Clearly fragile, and easily overlooked in a hot-race.
SAN BENEDETO (FR)16/16yo
Rated 155
Trainer: PF Nicholls
Unseated only outing at Cheltenham last season, though won four times thereafter (including good handicaps at Ascot and Aintree), and fair-enough effort behind Altior in Celebration Chase at Sandown. Most runs have come at around 2m, looked non-stayer in all runs at around 20f, and handicapped to the hilt.
SPLASH OF GINGE33/19yo
Rated 138
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies
Handicapper has shown some leniency from high-water mark of 153 (gained January 2015 Trials meeting), but looks like he needs a trip on Soft ground, and will likely find things happening too quickly for him here
STARCHITECT (IRE)25/16yo
Rated 150
Trainer: DE Pipe
Returned to wiining ways on 2nd November, when comfortable winner of a Class 3 at Stratford, but well beaten in two Cheltenham handicap runs last season from a lower mark. Will find it tough from revised mark (likely to be raised further for yesterday's win).
THEINVAL (FR)33/17yo
Rated 148
Trainer: NJ Henderson
Solid enough efforts last season when placed in all outings (winning once in minor event at Plumpton) but tends to find at least one too good, and suspicion is he is better over 2m.
TOP GAMBLE (IRE)25/19yo
Rated 159
Trainer: Kerry Lee
Ran with credit in three-of-four Cheltenham outings last season, notably when placing behind Un De Sceaux in the Clarence House. Handicapper hasn't missed that run, however, and whilst current mark is thereabouts, that's been derived from runs over minimum trip, and he has yet to convince he has the stamina for this.
TRAFFIC FLUIDE (FR)25/17yo
Rated 156
Trainer: Gary Moore
Similar profile to Top Gamble, and whilst handicapper has relented from highest rating of 162, stamina questions remain, and likely better over 2m
TULLY EAST (IRE)20/17yo
Rated 144
Trainer: Alan Fleming (IRE)
Comfortable winner of Close Brothers Novice at Festival, before disappointing in next run at Punchestown, dropped back to 2m. Well beaten by Campeador last month over minimum trip, and whilst 6lb higher than for his Festival win, has fitness on his side, and track form cannot be ignored. Shortlist material
VICONTE DU NOYER (FR)20/18yo
Rated 150
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Won 3m3f handicap at Open Meeting in 2016 on first start for Colin Tizzard, and mainly confined to trips beyond 3m since. Only outing over 20f was at Punchestown, where he again shaped like a stayer. Handicap mark looks on the high side, and faces stiff task to get competitive here
WAITING PATIENTLY (IRE)25/16yo
Rated 150
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Progressive novice and unbeaten last season (including cosy defeat of Politologue in receiopt of 3lbs) at Haydock. Met with a setback and not seen since, and whilst feasibly handicapped if well-being confirmed, it will take a very good performance to win this, after such a long absence
ZAMDY MAN33/18yo
Rated 140
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Won a couple of mionor novices last season, before shaping like a non-stayer behind Tully East in the Close Brothers. Not seen since, and suspicion is he is better at 2m

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Conclusion
Ball D’Arc would be of major interest to me if coming across for this, though given he seems very ground-dependent, I suspect he will be kept at home for another target - possibly the John Durkan, or one of the series of Graded 2m chases in Ireland run before the Xmas meetings.

Waiting Patiently still has stack of promise and is trained by a top man in Malcolm Jefferson, but has a long absence to overcome, and there are seemingly no guarantees of a run.

Ballotin remains of interest longer-term, but is scheduled to run in the Prix de France at Auteuil tomorrow, and a big run there would doubtless see the handicapper get involved before the weights are released next week. Even if Hobbs was able to turn him around in time, he could be handed a big-weight, and he is therefore reluctantly bypassed.

Kylemore Lough is a better-handicapped animal than I suspected, and is probably a few lbs ahead of the game, off his current mark of 154. I do have a nagging feeling that he is a better horse going right-handed though, and at his current odds, I feel compelled to swerve him, for something at a juicier price.

Having had a deeper look at the race, I suspect I probably pulled the trigger a little earlier than desirable with Venetia’s Aso, and whilst it’s a reasonable expectation that he will be dropped a little for his run behind Smad Place in the Old Roan, I think he’d need about 6lbs relief, to get truly competitive here, which leave me with a rather long-looking shortlist of four for the race.

One of Venetia’s other entries, Plaisir D’Amour, will get into this off a feather-weight, and at current odds of 33/1, comes into consideration. Another outer that might be worth chancing, is Days Of Heaven. His profile is not exactly orthodox for a horse running in this event, but he gets a sizeable pull with Romain De Senam for their Stratford outing, and is three times the price.

Tully East’s last two runs can be ignored, and he does not appear to have been unduly punished for what was, in the end, a fairly emphatic win in the Novice Handicap at the festival. I figure he is a major player.

Politologue’s form ties in very closely with Waiting Patiently’s, and this super-consistent type is almost certain to give his running. I confess I was surprised to find him available at 25/1, and he looks to have a really good each-way chance, given the trainer’s record in the race. POLITOLOGUE is therefore the main selection, and I will combine him in Forecasts and Tricasts with Tully East, Plaisir D’Amour and Days Of Heaven.

 
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Tully East seems the only definite one.


Greatwood entries are out as well. Strange price diff from the Fred Winter between Divin Bere and Flying Tiger considering the Williams horse might be a couple of pounds better off based on current OR's.
What about Mohaayed for Skelton. I told Tanlic that this would get the entry in The Greatwood six months ago!
 
It's a bit early for me to be looking at the race but that work deserves every reward, GH.

I see Art Mauresque runs today. I have him handicapped to just about win a race of this nature so I'm presuming today is merely a prep. Either way, we know Nicholls sends what he believes to be his best-handicapped middle-distance chaser to the Mackeson - as do most of the trainers with all the ammo so I'm not stating anything sensational there - so whatever he does send will have to be greatly respected.

You've inspired me, though, to see if I can manufacture a little me-time over the next couple of days to trawl through the figures. If I come up with anything interesting I'll follow your example and share it here.
 
Mackeson – first trawl


All the signs are that this race is going to take some winning. I haven’t tabulated the figures as I haven’t finalised them and there are a few bits of recent form (not yet in the book) I want to check.

What strikes me is how strong a hand Paul Nicholls is likely to have yet he might not have the winner.

I could list 20 of the 45-strong field as in with a shout but these, in order of preference (with current best odds in brackets), strike me as the most appealing possibilities at the time of writing.

Kylemore Lough (10/1)
Belami Des Pictons (25/1, 104 xch)
Waiting Patiently (25/1)
Paul Nicholls’s selected (presumably whatever STD rides)

Kylemore Lough would probably have won the Massey-Ferguson off 156 last year but for an almighty stumble three out and is 8lbs better off with the winner, Frodon, in this. He’s also switched to Harry Fry this season which doesn’t strike me as a negative although I wouldn’t mind knowing the reason.

Belami Des Pictons falls into the ‘could be anything’ category but strikes me as being Venetia Williams’s most likely contender. I have stablemates Aso, Zamdy Man and Plaisir D’Amour feasibly weighted for a decent Saturday handicap but Belami Des Pictons looks on a very steep curve and if he’s considerably better than them he could be extremely dangerous. All his form is in soft but the trainer seems to believe good ground will suit him better. He’s very long at Betfair, though, suggesting he doesn’t run.

Waiting Patiently makes the list not because I have him well handicapped but because I had Cloudy Dream (14/1 for this) well in until he ran Smad Place close in the Old Roan last week. Cloudy Dream’s form ties in with Altior, remember, and Smad Place was a Gold Cup hopeful running off 159. If Jefferson was happy enough to blow Cloudy Dream’s good mark in that race I have to suspect he thinks Waiting Patiently is the best handicapped in the yard for this type of race and he’s nearly twice the price.

Paul Nicholls has a ridiculously strong hand with San Benedeto, Politologue, Frodon, Le Prezien, Art Mauresque, Clan Des Obeaux, Bouvreuil, Roman De Senam and Sametegal. Roman De Senam has already won both his races this season and Le Prezien was just held off last week at Cheltenham in a very hot race. Presumably there is at least one in the list higher in the pecking order for this. Frodon was only 6/1 for this last season but never travelled convincingly. Next time up he showed his true form when taking the Massey-Ferguson. Nicholls, I presume, will have at least one he thinks is just as well weighted and I’d be pretty sure Sam Twiston-Davies will want to be on it.

I don’t know what ratings the UK handicapper will come up with for the Irish horses but they don’t strike me as being obviously well-treated. I’ll check them again once the ORs come out.
 
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You’re likely already aware, DO, but Belami Des Pictons faces Waiting Patiently at Carlisle this afternoon.
 
You’re likely already aware, DO, but Belami Des Pictons faces Waiting Patiently at Carlisle this afternoon.

:lol:

I'd no idea!!

I tend not to look at Sunday racing. I didn't even know the Old Roan had taken place last Sunday until I saw the result in the Weekender!
 
That looked a pretty decent contest. They seemed not to fvck about and the big two were miles clear.

Waiting Patiently is the only one I've backed for the Mackeson so his chance there - if that's the aim - will now be in the hands of the handicapper. Technically, he shouldn't put the winner up too much but if he takes the third and fourth seriously he could hammer both.

We'll know on Wednesday or Thursday.
 
Ruth Jefferson, the North Yorkshire trainer's daughter, told Press Association Sport: "The first two drew a long way clear and he jumped quite well. He maybe made one or two little mistakes, but he'll come on for the run.
"He's got an entry in the BetVictor (Gold Cup at Cheltenham, November 18) but I wouldn't say he was definitely going there or not as it's only two weeks away.
"We could always look for a race in December and see after that. I'm pleased as he picked up where he left off last season, which is what we were hoping for."
 
Politologue declared for the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter tomorrow. Might make a run in the BVGC less likely, given the proximity of both races.
 
In today's RP Stable Tour, Nicholls hinted quite strongly that Politologue would stick to 2m for the time being.
 
I've pretty much written of my bet on Waiting Patiently (25/1) for the Mackeson after reading Jefferson's comments in the RP this morning.

Not much point in laying it off at 20/1 or so either just in case they change their mind.

I don't imagine he'll be 25/1 for the Massey-Ferguson either :(

As the Romans used to say, caveat puntor.
 

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David Pipe seems keen on Starchitect, this from today's blog

I was very pleased to see Starchitect make a winning reappearance in the 2m4f handicap chase at Stratford on Thursday. The clock suggests that this was a big performance with the race being run a second faster than standard. Considering the remainder of the races were run 11 seconds or more outside of the standard time, this was clearly a decent effort. He has run big races at Cheltenham and Aintree for the last couple of seasons and thoroughly deserves to land a nice prize this term. He could turn out next in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in a couple of weeks’ – a race in which the stable have a proud tradition.
 
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Romain De Senam

Been taken by his two wins this season, still only 5 but already looking like a class act over fences.

Currently 12-1

Good to read in today’s Post very upbeat comments about the horse from his trainer Paul Nicholls

Looks a horse to follow, happy with the 12-1 now
 
I interpreted the comment as meaning he might skip this race. Happy to be put right though.

“Will give the Bet Victor serious consideration. Ideally what he wants is a fast run 2m 4f with an end-to-end gallop,so the Cheltenham race should suit him down to the ground “
 
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Good man, Perp.

No idea why they don't give the rating of the top-weight......pain in me hole.
 
Cloudy Dream (159) up 4lbs for Aintree

Politologue will have a 5lb pen

Waiting Patiently up 6lbs for Carlisle (not too bad)
Belami Des Pictons left alone (hmmm...)

Go Conquer up 8lbs for Ascot

Starchitect up 4lbs for Stratford
 
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