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Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 12th 2022 Newbury

Beef or Salmon said:
16 entries five days out is terribly dissapointing
Click to expand...

Agree. The biggest handicap hurdle in Europe (I think) and connections are actively ducking it.

Next week they'll find something to complain about as well.

Perhaps it's the realisation that campaigning a 130-150 horse honestly diminishes its chances in this race in which unexposed novices appear to have a huge advantage.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The stable had Ballyandy win this and was sent off at 3/1f for the Supreme (surely one of the stupidest favourites ever). I can't see the same thing happening here but a win and we be in the same territory as Soaring Glory last year in terms of market moves so I wanted it onside.
Click to expand...

Just read that they also won in 2019 with Al Dancer (off 141, race run at Ascot) who went off 9/2f (off 152) for the Supreme. I'd forgotten about that. A cause for slightly more optimism re ILTMI.
 
Metier and natural history are NRs

Nico rides the fav.
James Bowen rides fleet street.
Sean Bowen rides Boothill
I'm hoping for a Bowen finish.
 
Have a nice price about the Tizzard horse and I've had to add Jetoile. The Tolworth form was boosted last weekend and the runner-up in the Sydney Banks yesterday sort of franked his pre-Constitution Hill win at Leicester.
 
Horses not to back

Soaring Glory: Last horse to win this carrying that kind of weight was Persian War...enough said

Tritonic: I still say he is an overrated rag and wouldn't win this with 2 rockets tied to his ass.

Knappers Hill: at 9/1 must be poort value in the race with PN's current form

Royaume Uni: Not even with his record can Moore pull out the win with this thing.

Broomfield Burg : His form having at 1/9 and 1/3 and beaten at 8/15 sends out alarm bells in what looks like a huge step up in class. Terrible value at 7/2
 
Last edited:
Black Poppy scraped home at odds on an a grade 2 novice and the 3rd looked beaten when fell in the poorly contested Supreme Trial at Musselburgh.

It hasn't done the form any harm but this is a much tougher looking asignment and 7/2 is far from value.

I don't fancy him but that doesn't mean he can't win with NJH behind the steering wheel

He has won the race sevel times so anyone who fancies him knock yourselves out
 
I've been keeping an eye on the betting all week and this is one of the most fluctuating markets, certainly for this race, that I can remember.

Rightly or wrongly, I'm interpreting this as the market being unsure. For example, Fifty Ball was about 20/1 the day the weights came out, came into about 12/1 and is back out. Several others have gone from short to long and back to short(-ish) again. I think punters have been waiting for influential pundits like Simon Rowlands, Paul Kealy and Pricewise to have their say.

I was also intrigued that Mick Fitz this morning didn't tip the McManus-Hendo yoke, instead going for I Like To Move It.

[TABLE="width: 574"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON
161+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[TD]Odds[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fifty Ball[/TD]
[TD]10-10 [/TD]
[TD]131 [/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]157 [/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] I Like To Move It[/TD]
[TD]11-3 [/TD]
[TD]138 [/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[TD]148 [/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Glory And Fortune[/TD]
[TD]11-8 [/TD]
[TD]143 [/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]159 [/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tritonic[/TD]
[TD]11-11 [/TD]
[TD]146 [/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]153 [/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] First Street[/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]141 [/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]153 [/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Soaring Glory[/TD]
[TD]11-12 [/TD]
[TD]147 [/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]154 [/TD]
[TD]15/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Boothill[/TD]
[TD]11-0 [/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]+? nov[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]17/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Broomfield Burg[/TD]
[TD]10-13 [/TD]
[TD]134 [/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]7/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Howdyalikemenow[/TD]
[TD]10-6 [/TD]
[TD]127 [/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Baddesley[/TD]
[TD]10-0 [/TD]
[TD]121 [/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]+ nov[/TD]
[TD]154 [/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Royaume Uni[/TD]
[TD]10-2 [/TD]
[TD]123 [/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jetoile[/TD]
[TD]10-12 [/TD]
[TD]133 [/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[TD]151 [/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jpr One[/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]130 [/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]++ nov[/TD]
[TD]150 [/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Knappers Hill[/TD]
[TD]11-0 [/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]nov +6?[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



I really do think it's a hugely open race on paper but I still find it hard to get away from the idea that something with a big festival entry will ultimately win.

Of those still in the race these are the ones with big entries:

I Like To Move It
Glory And Fortune
Tritonic
Broomfield Burg
Jpr One
Knappers Hill

ILTMI is the only one of these I've actually backed so I'll probably end up kicking myself for straying from one of my original approaches to the race.
 
Last edited:
I’ve gone for Glory and Fortune. He would have been closer in the Greatwood if not making a hash of 2 out and I initially thought he was flattered by the Xmas hurdle run but possibly not
Anyway 18/1 (5 places) with SkyBet is too big


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I cant believe I havent put this up although I did mention it on the Longshot thread.
FIRST STREET took 20s,16s and 14s.
Entered in the supreme and blew a good hcap mark for 6 grand.went up 9lb.on a line through G.Moores runner he should be wherever Broomfield burg finishes.i really cant understand why they would ruin a mark if they didnt think he was a bit special.
 
viking said:
I’ve gone for Glory and Fortune. He would have been closer in the Greatwood if not making a hash of 2 out and I initially thought he was flattered by the Xmas hurdle run but possibly not
Anyway 18/1 (5 places) with SkyBet is too big


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Well done viking..
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've been keeping an eye on the betting all week and this is one of the most fluctuating markets, certainly for this race, that I can remember.

Rightly or wrongly, I'm interpreting this as the market being unsure. For example, Fifty Ball was about 20/1 the day the weights came out, came into about 12/1 and is back out. Several others have gone from short to long and back to short(-ish) again. I think punters have been waiting for influential pundits like Simon Rowlands, Paul Kealy and Pricewise to have their say.

I was also intrigued that Mick Fitz this morning didn't tip the McManus-Hendo yoke, instead going for I Like To Move It.

[TABLE="width: 574"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON
161+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[TD]Odds[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fifty Ball[/TD]
[TD]10-10 [/TD]
[TD]131 [/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]157 [/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] I Like To Move It[/TD]
[TD]11-3 [/TD]
[TD]138 [/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]nov[/TD]
[TD]148 [/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Glory And Fortune[/TD]
[TD]11-8 [/TD]
[TD]143 [/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]159 [/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tritonic[/TD]
[TD]11-11 [/TD]
[TD]146 [/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]153 [/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] First Street[/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]141 [/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]153 [/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Soaring Glory[/TD]
[TD]11-12 [/TD]
[TD]147 [/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]154 [/TD]
[TD]15/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Boothill[/TD]
[TD]11-0 [/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]+? nov[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]17/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Broomfield Burg[/TD]
[TD]10-13 [/TD]
[TD]134 [/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]7/2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Howdyalikemenow[/TD]
[TD]10-6 [/TD]
[TD]127 [/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Baddesley[/TD]
[TD]10-0 [/TD]
[TD]121 [/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]+ nov[/TD]
[TD]154 [/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Royaume Uni[/TD]
[TD]10-2 [/TD]
[TD]123 [/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[TD]+p nov[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jetoile[/TD]
[TD]10-12 [/TD]
[TD]133 [/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]p nov[/TD]
[TD]151 [/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jpr One[/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]130 [/TD]
[TD]155[/TD]
[TD]++ nov[/TD]
[TD]150 [/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Knappers Hill[/TD]
[TD]11-0 [/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]nov +6?[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



I really do think it's a hugely open race on paper but I still find it hard to get away from the idea that something with a big festival entry will ultimately win.

Of those still in the race these are the ones with big entries:

I Like To Move It
Glory And Fortune
Tritonic
Broomfield Burg
Jpr One
Knappers Hill

ILTMI is the only one of these I've actually backed so I'll probably end up kicking myself for straying from one of my original approaches to the race.
Click to expand...

Well sorted DO.
 
Fvck. GAF was one of my bets in the race last year when he chased the mental pace and hit the wall early.

ILTMI ran really well and might have done a fraction too much in holding an early position.

Well done GAF backers. It's no loss what a friend gets :)
 
Thanks but credit where credit’s due it was Marb who mentioned this horse first on the thread


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