Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot

Desert Orchid said:
You're assuming it's targeting this race rather than the spring festivals, Maruco?
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I think it's possible that they think they have enough in hand to target both this and a big Spring target Maurice. If he wins here and the handicapper nails him, they'll just switch to graded targets. And don't forget this race is worth about £30k more than the County Hurdle and may be more winnable anyway, so why wouldn't they?

On the flip side they know there are two or three very unexposed novices, so I suspect Skelton will ride a race with that in mind and won't waste the handicap mark on finishing close up in a place. If he's not got a handful approaching the last then you can expect him to find a reverse gear.

Of the novices, Didtheyleaveyoutoo has the right owner to have been targeted at this, and has a very lenient mark after what I noted as a very tender ride at Kempton behind Mister Fisher and others. If you're prepared to accept that the run at Kempton was for a handicap mark and write it off, look at his previous two hurdle runs and all of the cross form. It's stacks up particularly well.
 
Is that race on Saturday or Sunday, Edgt? All sounds very interesting. If someone can get hold of the racecard online please post it up. Thankyou.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
You're assuming it's targeting this race rather than the spring festivals, Maruco?

It's obviously very well handicapped these days but as mentioned above so were Blue Bajan and John Constable.

I've struck my first bet. I took 25/1 Saglawy. I'm half-expecting him not to run but he strikes me as being the best of the Mullins lot. If he turns up, especially with Ruby up, he'll be a single-figure price.
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Saglawy is also entered in the race Edgt has mentioned. Not Never is due to carry 10:6 at Leopardstown. At Number 24 on the list, looks likely to get a run if they fancy having a go.
 
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Maruco said:
And don't forget this race is worth about £30k more than the County Hurdle and may be more winnable anyway, so why wouldn't they?
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If I were an owner that's the way I would think too but all too often the 'glory' of a Cheltenham winner appears to mean more to some operations. Perhaps Aintree/Ayr means more to the owner of Ch'tibello.
 
Maruco said:
Of the novices, Didtheyleaveyoutoo has the right owner to have been targeted at this, and has a very lenient mark after what I noted as a very tender ride at Kempton behind Mister Fisher and others. If you're prepared to accept that the run at Kempton was for a handicap mark and write it off, look at his previous two hurdle runs and all of the cross form. It's stacks up particularly well.
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He already had a handicap mark (139) going into the Kempton race so were they maybe trying to get it down? If so they didn't succeed.

I've just watched that race against Thomas Darby. It was more like a public gallop. The stewards should have had nearly every jockey and trainer in for an interview after that. It developed into a sprint between the only two triers in the race and there was nothing in it at the line.

Highest Sun couldn't get near Al Dancer next time and Thomas Darby only went up 2lbs for subsequently finishing third to Mister Fisher who in turn struggled to beat Bright Forecast the other day. Next time out TD was 1/5 to beat a horse rated 16lbs inferior. He only beat him three lengths.

I'm not convinced that amounts to 'stacking up' but I can believe DTLYOT may be better than we've seen. The problem for me is that the market already believes it to be gospel.

I've spent some time with no luck trying to access videos of the races the day Saglawy ran third to see if I can get some comparative sectional times but for some reason there's no link coming up. To the naked eye it looked like a modestly run race and Saglawy did by far the best of the hold-up horses. Held up and slightly wide he tanked through most of the race and was still almost last turning for home. I'd actually forgotten he'd finished third that day and was basically saying to myself that it wasn't off an inch, then it came wide and closed impressively from the second last and was still going on at the line. It looked like Ruby thought he could win despite riding it like a non-trier. I don't imagine he'll be too happy with himself for that ride if he was supposed to win.

I'm still not convinced the horse will come over, though. I'd like to think the owners (Sullivan Bloodstock) wouldn't mind winning the biggest handicap hurdle in the calendar.
 
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Managed to access the video replays. I'd been using the wrong date. What a fanny.

Anyroads, watching it again, I realised I'd looked at these times a while back but it was interesting doing it again.

As I said, visually, the handicap seemed modestly run. They were fairly tightly bunched most of the way and the times back up the impression. I thought they went modestly in the juvenile race won by Chief Justice but they were a second faster than Quick Grabim in the Royal Bond (sounds painful) to the third and they found another two seconds between the sixth and seventh but QG pulled those two seconds back between 8 and 9 and they went from the last to the line in the same time.

The handicap was slightly faster earlier but then slowed down and were four seconds (20 lengths?) behind the juveniles at the seventh. From there to the line they matched Chief Justice. Quick Grabim was two seconds faster from the second-last to the last but again ran to the line in the same time.

In the Hattons Grace over a half-mile further, Wicklow Brave went off at a proper pace. From what was the third flight in the shorter races to the sixth he was fully five seconds (25 lengths?) faster than the fastest of the other two races' leaders combined. As he started to fade Apples Jade took over and lost a second on the long run to the second last but was presumably being saved for the straight as she came home from two out in the same time as two the other races despite not being as hard ridden. Quick Grabim's 12-second sprint from two out to the last was two seconds faster. He clearly has a turn of foot.

It should be noted, though, that Saglawy gave the leaders a good ten lengths off the home turn and made up most of them even though they were trying to quicken. He probably came home from the turn slightly quicker than Quick Grabim based on the distances behind the leaders at those stages.

Of course, all of this stands for fvck all if the bastert doesn't turn up at Newbury :blink:
 
Maybe he does turn up and they'll pull a stunt like they did with Wicklow Brave the other year.

Willie loves the County Hurdle and you can be pretty sure he'll have a Grade 1 hurdler masquerading as a handicapper somewhere. It would take a complete change for him to set out to win the Betfair Hurdle. Saglawy's entry may be as simple as getting the UK handicapper to give his mark for March so he can run down the field somewhere and get a couple of pounds off if necessary.

If Willie doesn't win the County Hurdle he goes very close every year, so it's worth keeping a really close eye on his two milers. Also bear in mind he targets the Martin Pipe too, so anything capable of a step up in trip is also worth considering.

Whatever he does, I couldn't consider backing one of his for this even if I thought it was 20lbs well in!!!
 
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Maruco said:
And don't forget this race is worth about £30k more than the County Hurdle and may be more winnable anyway, so why wouldn't they?
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Desert Orchid said:
If I were an owner that's the way I would think too but all too often the 'glory' of a Cheltenham winner appears to mean more to some operations. Perhaps Aintree/Ayr means more to the owner of Ch'tibello.
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Maruco said:
Willie loves the County Hurdle and you can be pretty sure he'll have a Grade 1 hurdler masquerading as a handicapper somewhere. It would take a complete change for him to set out to win the Betfair Hurdle. Saglawy's entry may be as simple as getting the UK handicapper to give his mark for March so he can run down the field somewhere and get a couple of pounds off if necessary.
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Yes, I think we're pretty much on the same page, Maruco.
 
Marble said:
Saglawy is also entered in the race Edgt has mentioned. Not Never is due to carry 10:6 at Leopardstown. At Number 24 on the list, looks likely to get a run if they fancy having a go.
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Not Never's new mark is 131.
 
I'm dreaming that he will run and win in Ireland, then go to the Betfair officially very well in. But it's only a dream, at this stage. :)
 
I dream every year of getting that life changing win.
Nearly did it in 2009 if only Rose Dobbin had asked her mount for an effort a bit earlier,but got beat by a Irish horse who was off the same mark as its Irish mark,,and should have been higher.(ninety minutes?)
 
Maruco said:
Maybe he does turn up and they'll pull a stunt like they did with Wicklow Brave the other year.

Willie loves the County Hurdle and you can be pretty sure he'll have a Grade 1 hurdler masquerading as a handicapper somewhere. It would take a complete change for him to set out to win the Betfair Hurdle.
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Just looking back through past Betfairs.

Arguably it was only a poor tactical ride by Geraghty that cost Willie last year's Betfair with Bleu Et Rouge (for JP).
 
Not Never not declared then.

Like I said earlier, there was a chance it wasn't the stable's main hope.
 
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Nothing lost, apart from time and energy. Leoncavello I will have to stick to now.
 
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I'd assume if Not Never goes to Ireland it's to get its mark down again. UK raiders have little chance over there because they run off their UK marks and are disadvantaged by 5/6lbs.

Then again, if they send NN over there and it wins you'd have to seriously think about what they end up running at Newbury!
 
Struck my second bet in the race this evening: Mont Des Avaloirs ew 33/1 4 pl.

This one looked all over the Tolworth winner for a long way last season but maybe did a wee bit too much out in front. I think he's been trained for this since that day. Summerville Boy won it before taking the Supreme and going up to 156 for that. Second was Kalashnikov who went on to win this (went up to 154 for it) and run second to Summerville Boy in the Supreme. MDA was third. Fourth was Western Ryder who had gone up to 150 by the time he ran at the weekend there.

Like I say, MDA looked the best horse in the field that day to me and I'm happy to take the chance that my interpretation of his subsequent form is correct. If I'm right in believing he is a 160+ horse running off 142 he will be very hard to beat. Also, if Cobden rides he might end up a gamble.
 
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Hi m8,just wanted 2 give you a bit of info i recieved from another forum.That im a member of.Theres a guy on there who gives out some really good info,and is 100% genuine.He as advised 2 get stuck into leoncavello,he states there wiĺl be a big gamble on this horse,and its been plotted up for the race.At the end of the day its the betfair hurdle,really hard race 2 win.but just thought would let u know as u fancy it.
 
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