Betfair Hurdle

I rememeber his second to GMOOH, I thought that was a solid Tote Trophy. Ran a cracker on his comeback last time to come 4th on heavy ground that he was unproven on beforehand. Wouldn't put you off.
 
prince regent said:
the horses entered in the ch are
Baldur success
Cash and go
Claret cloak
Cotton mill
Cause of causes
General Millar
Pearl swan

of the above cotton mill the neptune does through up champion 2 mile hurdlers only need to mention istrabeq and hardy eustace i dont find it a positive for the horse he was stepped up in distance afterwards as if connections think he needs further rather than shorter he did travel well in neptune so a fast run 2 miles should suit

pearl swan runs in a bmper for jumpers tomorrow i dont think he is held in the sam regard as zarakander and his form isnt as strong

the 2 that interest me are from the greatwood cash and go and cause of causes the latter i thought was given a strange ride in the greatwood in hindsight perhaps the ladbroke was the target cash and go was a good 2nd and may have excuses for the ladbroke given his connections strike rate in the betfair and he will have probably geraughty on board he is the one of interest for me at present
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I agree - I have Cash and Go 5lb well in without improvement on my ratings.
 
Picked two non runners up to now, hope Lyvius won't be another one not to line up. I don't think there's many who will have won a class one handicap already in their careers and race off 10 stone in this. I think he may still be a few pounds ahead of his mark and he goes well at Newbury. Think I will be backing him, moreso if he actually goes to post!
 
Nicky put Jeramiah McGrath on him to take some of the weight the handicapper had lumped him up with for beating Edgardo Soul. Obviously he must have thought he was harshly treated going up 8 lbs.

He's been dropped 2 lbs for what was a shocking poor effort at Ascot and he's only got 10stone so unless he has someone that can do 9st9lbs he'll be worse of than he was in the Ladbroke.

No horse has ever won of a lower weight than 10st can't see that changing with him.
 
Hmm, thats not the way I am interpreting it, Tanlic.

Form figures since racing over here are 1, 2, 1, 7, 1, 18. The time he was second he was expected to win and started a 8/13 shot. His form suggests to me he is one of these horses that puts in a good run followed by a poor one etc. He easily could have bounced the last time on his second start of the season, and I'm taking it with a pinch of salt, as I think it is part of the pattern I am mentioning. I don't think anything significant is behind the fella who rode it last time and for a horse who has only run in two handicap hurdles (both Class 1's), and one won of them, you have to think a rating of 133 and weight of ten stone could be well worth exploiting on Saturday, if the horse is good enough.

Riun him in enough hurdles with no weight and he'll pop in one of them imo.
 
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His form to me suggests he's very ordinary. On the two occasions he's stepped into this sort of company he's fallen flat on his face.

It might look ok on paper but I wouldn't use Edgardo Sol as a form guide as he is not a horse to trust and Peckhamecho was probably out for a look at the people in prep for the Welsh Champion Hurdle.

If he runs I can't see him even going close in this sort of company. but stranger things have happened
 
Edgardo Sol was 7/2 that day (as was Lyvius). From my point of view, the Nicholls horse did not underperform, I just think Lyvius showed he was the classier horse on the day - Its not like Edgardo Sol was Odds-On to win and ran like a drain is it? He's ran a solid enough race as odds of 7/2 suggested he might imo.

He probably isn't the best yardstick in the sense he is inconsistent but I couldn't crab Lyvius too much for beating him all the same, and the fact the third was second at a big price in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last week can surely only be seen as a positive? Yes, Lyvius has some questions to answer but has had nice break since last run and will be nearer first than last I think! Ultimately only Nicky will know if he's put that last run behind him, I'll take my chances, assuming he runs.
 
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Before the Ladbroke Henderson said he'd "shown high-class form over hurdles." Must have been referring to previous win beating Edgardo Sol. Also, after that win in the Gerry Fielden he said they came to the conclusion he was probably a soft ground horse with him being a German bred, and that he needed a strong pace. So soft ground on Saturday might help the cause. Don't think the run at Ascot was anything other than a below par run from an inexperienced and young horse. I think you've got it all wrong Tanlic, but I guess its 1/25 that he won't win and you're right so there you go!!!.:)
 
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What price would Cotton Mill be if trained by Henderson or O'Neill and carried the green and gold hoops?? He's the one at the prices
 
I had my first proper look at the race today.

It might be one of those where the form doesn't matter as much as the reading between the lines.

With six Hendersons still there at the five-day stage and given the strength in depth of his hurdlers, there has to be the chance that whatever Geraghty ends up opting for will prove a lot better than public form would lead us to believe. Nicholls's hurdlers haven't been as strong in depth and with 'only' three entries, it's hard to see the best of them being better than the best of Henderson's.

Gary Moore's record in the race also demands that Whitby Jack be taken seriously.

My modus operandi is to row in with big improvers so I'm looking at the likes of Cause Of Causes, Dark Lover, Cash And Go and Claret Cloak. Since two of those are trained by Henderson and Nicholls, they seem very serious candidates. Yet Pearl Swan is Walsh's reported choice and if Geraghty opts for a different stable rep then that too might speak volumes.

Grumeti, Pearl Swan, Punjabi, Cotton Mill, Baby Mix and Manyriverstocross appeal as plots too, but I'm wondering if many horses have won this on their seasonal debut or after a two-season absence.
 
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In what kind of parallel-Universe does a 10yo who hasn't won a race for three years (Punjabi) appeal as a 'plot' horse, yet the thrice-raced novice jolly (MTOY) doesn't even make the list of "big improvers".

You need a severe lie down, DO......either that, or a shot in Tardis.
 
A few stats if you are into stats

11 of the last 12 finished in the top 5 last time out
11 of the last 12 were aged 7 or younger
Since 1980 there has only been one winner aged 9 or older
11 of the last 12 figured in the top 10 in the betting market
8 of the last 12 figured in the top 5 in the betting market
9 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 10 times over hurdles
10 of the last 12 were rated 130+
7 of the last 9 had won at least over this trip before
2 of the last 9 had won a race at Newbury before
5 of the last 9 won their previous race
Only 3 of the last 12 runnings went to the favourite
 
He's been running loose in his last three outings.....usually on his way to the final hurdle as the principals are crossing the line.
 
Everytime I've checked oddschecker Village Vic seems to shorten up a bit. No form over hurdles bar a second to The New One in a Novice Hurdle, I guess he could be a plot horse, although he's not for me, as he hasn't shown any form of high calibre over hurdles. Its either stable money or some delusional lunatic with a low IQ punting him.
 
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Last mare to win this was Spirit Leader and i'm warming up to the idea that Swing Bowler could be the next. I'm pretty sure she is still much better than the 134 she runs off.

In her last race she ran off 123 on her handicap debut and duly won a 2m class 2 Musselburgh handicap by 4 1/2 lengths from a big field. She's been clubbed 11lbs for that but she was the only one in first five to come from off the pace and despite being hampered she hit the front at 2 out and won pretty easily. She made up around 10 lengths on some decent horses and has to be better than 134. There were also three 2m hurdles that day and her time was the quickest by 3 seconds. So a fast paced 2m big field handicap shouldn't be an issue for her.

She is also impeccably bred; her dam Lady Cricket was a quality mare and her Dad is the all conquering Galileo.

Her trainer loves a big handicap.

Her jock loves a hold up horse and is probably second to Carberry only in that department.

10st 1lbs on her back.

12/1 e/w - Balls deep I reckon
 
Grasshopper said:
In what kind of parallel-Universe does a 10yo who hasn't won a race for three years (Punjabi) appeal as a 'plot' horse, ...

You need a severe lie down, DO......
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:lol:

Imagine the scene:

Punjabi has been off for a couple of years and they get him fit enough to run so they enter him up. Lo and behold, he's 19lbs lower than when runner up in the Champion Hurdle trial four runs back.

"F&ck the Champion Hurdle. We can win the Schweppes off that mark. Let's make sure he doesn't go up in the meantime."

As Pamela Landy would say, "How does that scan?"

Anyroads, I'm off to Spain in the morning for 10 days' lie down!
 
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:lol: Good on you, DO.


Imagine the scene:

"I've already told you - Tooth refuses to have him pulled out of training!"

"But he's a goner!"

"I know, but Tooth is a basket-case. He is most insistent that he runs somewhere"

"Hmmn....tricky one"

"F*ck it. We'll stick him in the Betfair. He'll run like a drain - maybe then he'll consent to do the honourable thing and retire him"

Enjoy your holiday. :cool:
 
Is it 48-hr decs for this race i.e. due imminently....or do I need to wait until tomorrow before I find out Henderson's yanked MTOY?
 
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