Betfair Hurdle

doesn't get much more impressive from a novice. have both him and jezki onside for the supreme now. what a race in prospect.
 
If that doesn't win the Champion Hurdle one day I'll be surprised! Its an occasion where he fully justified the rating, and would have won off any rating today.
 
Very kind lads - thanks. :cool:

Not to be an after-timing wanker, but I was waiting on Hadrian's Approach for 5-from-5 in a Canadian. Can't see me getting it in the Stewards Room, but it's been a good day regardless.
 
Aye, Aragorn,, but Dunguib never achieved anything of that order, and it's surely only a matter of time before its significance sinks in.
 
I actually thought you were being sarcastic because Cue Card, Cousin Vinny and Amaretto Rose were all shorties in recent years.
 
Nicky won't want him to run in Champion. He'd rather win both races but with the loss of Darlan JP and Frank Berry may well want to go for the big one.

I would have thought had MTOY not run and John Ferguson's had won the race he'd have been one very happy man and thinking with a bit of improvement winning the Champion Hurdle was a possibility.

This horse has given him weight and a hammering and they must have a very good idea via AP if he's as good as Grandouet.

I wouldn't presume anything
 
I cannot imagine they will go for the Champion.

Knotty problem for AP in the Supreme now though Jezki or MTOY ?

A wonderful performance this afternoon - he really has one hell of an engine.
 
I rated MTOY 160+ on that performance with surely more to come - Supreme this year - C.H next year
is Chatterbox better than MTOY?
 
I reckon all the first 5 showed improved form today, and MTOY will come out at least a 162 officially, which is massive for a horse of his experience.
 
Personal opinion, but I think it is very easy to go overboard about the value of yesterday's form. When it looks too good to be true, it usually is, and my initial reaction having slept on it, is that MTOY has - in the main - beaten horses who want further, or who looked punitively handicapped (in hindsight).

It was obviously a very smart performance indeed for a novice - there's no denying that - but I can't have it that it's north of 160. With the dust settled, I'd have it around mid-150's, which would easily be sufficient to win a Supreme Novices, but he'd need to find another stone to win a Champion Hurdle.

If I was McManus, I would want to avoid overfacing MTOY, and I'd be letting him take his chance in the Supreme. I'd also be wondering if I wouldn't be better-off viewing Jezki as a long-term chasing prospect, and perhaps swerve the Festival with him altogether.
 
reet hard said:
I reckon all the first 5 showed improved form today, and MTOY will come out at least a 162 officially, which is massive for a horse of his experience.
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This is possible on my provisional figures too.

Petit Robin had been putting up improving marks lately - the best of his career - and every one that finished in front of him yesterday would have been widely expected to make significant improvement on previous form.

I'll be surprised if the handicapper hikes the winner by less than 10lbs and 15lbs is entirely possible given the ease of victory.

On that basis, the Supreme Novices' would be a formality assuming yesterday's exertions were as minimal as it appeared.
 
Handicapper?

If AP tells JP he thinks he should run him in the Champion Hurdle then that's where he'll go even if the handicapper only raises him half an ounce.

That thing was pulling double all the way round yesterday and had McCoy decided to give him an inch of reign earlier he would have won by a hurdle. Hurricane Fly couldn't have won it much easier.

Jezki looks a good thing was the cry before Saturday..Now JP is going to run both in the same race and throw away a chance at a quarter of a million in prize money?

Not if they think as much of Jezki as the racing public seem to do he wont.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This is possible on my provisional figures too.

Petit Robin had been putting up improving marks lately - the best of his career - and every one that finished in front of him yesterday would have been widely expected to make significant improvement on previous form.

I'll be surprised if the handicapper hikes the winner by less than 10lbs and 15lbs is entirely possible given the ease of victory.

On that basis, the Supreme Novices' would be a formality assuming yesterday's exertions were as minimal as it appeared.
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Agree with all of that, DO, though the OH will probably assume Petite Robin ran to form, and rate the race around him - allowing a couple of pounds for the ease of win. The signs are (imo) that PR showed improvement again yesterday, in the first race they've really bottomed him this season.

Grassy
I'm not one for boarding hype bandwagons easily (didn't give Frankel the benefit of the doubt until the end of his 2nd season :)), but saw something yesterday akin to Kauto's first Betfair, and (imo) the form and profiles of the principals entirely support that view.
MTOY is most definitely the genuine article, worthy of a mid 160's rating already, and likely to find more. Whether he is capable (considering he has only 1 proper race behind him) of winning a Champion Hurdle at this stage is a moot point, though I can certainly see why he'd run in it.
 
[QUOTEIf AP tells JP he thinks he should run him in the Champion Hurdle then that's where he'll go even if the handicapper only raises him half an ounce.][/QUOTE]

AP said pretty categorically on C4 yesterday that the horse should NOT go for the Champion Hurdle this year
 
reet hard said:
Agree with all of that, DO, though the OH will probably assume Petite Robin ran to form, and rate the race around him - allowing a couple of pounds for the ease of win. The signs are (imo) that PR showed improvement again yesterday, in the first race they've really bottomed him this season.

Grassy
I'm not one for boarding hype bandwagons easily (didn't give Frankel the benefit of the doubt until the end of his 2nd season :)), but saw something yesterday akin to Kauto's first Betfair, and (imo) the form and profiles of the principals entirely support that view.
MTOY is most definitely the genuine article, worthy of a mid 160's rating already, and likely to find more. Whether he is capable (considering he has only 1 proper race behind him) of winning a Champion Hurdle at this stage is a moot point, though I can certainly see why he'd run in it.
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We've been here before, reet - I'm naturally a more cautious type. :)

The race was run at a crawl (compared to a normal year), on bad ground. Whilst it's self-evident that MTOY is a top-drawer novice - the way the race panned-out - suggests it's questionable whether all of the principals gave their form in the conditions. I can't have them being dragged into 'improved again' territory, to prop-up a higher mark for MTOY. I should add that MTOY was probably value for more than the bear margin, and that I've accounted for that.

And, as you can imagine, I have absolutely no reason whatsoever to crab the performance.

Each to their own. :cool:
 
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It didn't occur to me that the race might have been run at anything other than a good pace in the conditions. having backed Pearl Swan, I wasn't over-concerned that he raced prominently but when he came off the bit turning for home I wondered if the pace had been too strong.

I should add that being in Spain I wasn't aware of the change in conditions. I only stopped off at a sports bar to see the racing (and partake of the odd libation, natch).
 
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