Betfair Hurdle

Final decs are in, jolly is still in, more money for Village Vic (or has been shortened up by the firms, again) and I can't wait for Lyvius to spring a surprise at 33's!
 
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Princeton Plains also running for McManus in this tomorrow - presumably as a pace-maker. He should ensure a decent clip, which is what MTOY wants (imo).
 
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Think both JP and Jonjo have been around long enough to know they're unlikely to need a pacemaker in one of the hottest hurdles of the sseason, Grass.
A more tenable supposition might be that Nicky H (who thinks MTOY may have too much weight anyway) has kept the top weight in the race to restrict Cash And Go's impost to a minimum. ;)
 
Over on FF I posted the stats I posted on here and DO replied that "The only stat that matters is that the winner is very well handicapped. Age, finishing position last time out, course form, number of runs, etc., none of that matters if the horse isn't handicapped to win."

So I asked him "Who's very well handicapped then Mo?" and so far he has not replied. Drinking sangria I reckon

So I'll ask him on here if he's sobered up

Who's very well handicapped then Mo ?
 
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already backed Dark Lover

am also backing Claret Cloak.

Last time out CC was unusually ridden near the pace which was too strong..as can be seen by where the other pace horses finished..8,9,13,14,15th.

To finish a creditable third after chasing a pace that killed the others off shows this one is a good bit better than its mark.

A nice little test race..had shown a nice improvement at the end of last season...tomorrow will be held up as usual..and we will see what it has really got

last time i backed winner of this was Ra Nova..so..you can see i'm pretty good at it;)
 
I quite like the look of Court Minstrel in this. It's not hard to forgive him a below-par run on heavy last time out and prior to that he looked a horse crying out for a strong pace which he should get tomorrow. He certainly travels very well.
 
Quite like the top weight Petit Robin who is allotted seven pounds more than the next horse which is nullified by Nicolai de Boinville (7) who is a very promising young claimer and who has ridden this one twice finishing first and second. The horse itself is a CD winner but has to overcome one significant statistic which is that since 1980 there has only been one winner aged 9 or older.


Petit Robin each way for me currently 33-1 with a few bookies need to establish if anyone going first five mind you Betfair were 56 this morning.
 
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Punjabi and Lyvius for me. I like the fact the former has so much proven form in the past, and must be worth a chance if he were to come back to form. My gut is telling me (or asking) why they would bring a champion hurdle back at the age of ten for this, reckon he'll run well tomorrow either way. I will acknowledge that Desert Orchid as a 'judge' if he wins as he mentioned him earlier on this thread and gave me a bit of insight. And imo Lyvius could place at a very big price. He's too big.
 
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Looking through the race I cannot see how five horses finish in front of MTOY so he's a bet with the firms offering that concession. A few of the runners represent the Ladbroke and Greatwood Hurdles and I thought both of those races were uninspiring renewals this season. Cotton Mill must need further surely and Pearl Swan's form seems worthy of a bigger price. Spirit Son won the Huntingdon race a few years back and the fav has that sort of presence. He's a well made animal who hurdles with fluency and 11st3 should be no bother
 
Good point made by On The Bridle re Cotton Mill. I'm still scratching my head wondering how the hell a horse can run as well as Cotton Mill did in the Neptune and end up getting weight from a novice.


The same about the JP colours could be said about Cash and Go. He won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle and he also gets weight from MTOY who's claim to fame is winning a poxy class 3 hurdle at Huntingdon, getting his ass kicked the time before. Cash and Go is surely Nicky Henderson main hope here?

When MTOY did win that Huntingdon race he beat Population by 7 lengths trained by none other than John Ferguson. Apart from Population being incapable of getting within a furlong of Cotton Mill he goes on to get beaten again by 7 3/4 lengths this time

My Tent Or Yours may look all bright and shiny going to post in the best known NH colours in the world but there must be serious doubts if he's anywhere near good enough to win this race off a massive 149.

The handicapper has gone nuts on this one. Up to Something who finished 7 lengths in front of Population 4 days ago was rated 130.

Sure MTOY won easily, maybe 10lbs easier but near on 20lbs???? Something wrong somewhere. Can't see John Ferguson being overly concerend about MTOY that's for sure.

However lets say I am totally wrong and MTOY is some sort of machine and hacks up, where to next? I wouldn't be surprised if Frank berry called Nicky and told him to go for the Champion Hurdle. Punjabi only carried 2 lbs more than he has to and was beaten. Albeit 12 months on he ended up winning the Champion Hurdle so why wouldn't they have a crack at it bearing in mind Darlan is no longer with us.

you can have 579 on the machine which is a bit less than you could have had about Binocular..I'll pass
 
Cracking contest;.
Always felt Cash And Go would be BG's pick in this and, with some double figure prices still available, looks an absolutely knocking e.w. bet.
Will ensure a profit if MTOY wins though, as BG clearly sees him as his biggest danger.
 
After the loss of Darlan it would be lovely if MTOY could win this, but I just feel he has too much weight to carry. If MTOY were to win off this mark you would expect that he'd go to 158 or 159. In the last six season no Supreme winner has been rated more than 154 after winning at Cheltenham, so MTOY would be the highest rated two mile novice of the last six years, I just don't see it.

I'm going with Swing Bowler and Pearl Swan but good luck to GH and anyone else on MTOY.
 
VC are longest (or they were earlier this morning) about Cash And Go, long enough to lead me to suspect they don't believe it will be winning this. I've left it out of calculations as a result so the way my luck has been going lately it will probably skoosh in. I've put most of my eggs in Pearl Swan's basket with an each-way saver on Punjabi.
 
I don't buy that BetVictor have a line into the Henderson yard. It's a high profile Saturday 23 runner handicap and they're not offering an extra place. They're obliged/forced to be competitive at the front end in an age when punters are price sensitive. You should be increasing your bet not leaving it out if calculations.

LUMP ON THE CASH AND GO
 
Of course, when you're bold and fearless about one I've opposed, it's obviously just a load of slavering old sh*te. :cool:

:lol:
 
Tanlic said:
Good point made by On The Bridle re Cotton Mill. I'm still scratching my head wondering how the hell a horse can run as well as Cotton Mill did in the Neptune and end up getting weight from a novice.


The same about the JP colours could be said about Cash and Go. He won the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle and he also gets weight from MTOY who's claim to fame is winning a poxy class 3 hurdle at Huntingdon, getting his ass kicked the time before. Cash and Go is surely Nicky Henderson main hope here?

When MTOY did win that Huntingdon race he beat Population by 7 lengths trained by none other than John Ferguson. Apart from Population being incapable of getting within a furlong of Cotton Mill he goes on to get beaten again by 7 3/4 lengths this time

My Tent Or Yours may look all bright and shiny going to post in the best known NH colours in the world but there must be serious doubts if he's anywhere near good enough to win this race off a massive 149.

The handicapper has gone nuts on this one. Up to Something who finished 7 lengths in front of Population 4 days ago was rated 130.

Sure MTOY won easily, maybe 10lbs easier but near on 20lbs???? Something wrong somewhere. Can't see John Ferguson being overly concerend about MTOY that's for sure.

However lets say I am totally wrong and MTOY is some sort of machine and hacks up, where to next? I wouldn't be surprised if Frank berry called Nicky and told him to go for the Champion Hurdle. Punjabi only carried 2 lbs more than he has to and was beaten. Albeit 12 months on he ended up winning the Champion Hurdle so why wouldn't they have a crack at it bearing in mind Darlan is no longer with us.

you can have 579 on the machine which is a bit less than you could have had about Binocular..I'll pass
Click to expand...

Can I have a tenner on at 579 now?:blink: Bloody awesome
 
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