Betfair Hurdle

Have to agree with Suny Euro it's just that he's a horse who's a bit ignorant with his own ideas IMO. Soft ground won't help him, he'd do a lot better if he obeyed his rider.

Don't forget he was all over the shop at Newbury when beaten hands down by Buveur Dair on soft ground.

If he is as good as Hobbs seems to think he is he is extremely well handicapped he could get away with it in the Betfair but he is the price he is because of his jumping.
 
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I was all over Wait for me for the County hurdle last year at big prices, knowing his jumping was sketchy. He was heavily backed on the day, going off 7/1 Fav in the end, so it's clear the yard think an awful lot of him, particularly on that mark of 139 (Currently 138). Definitely has the engine to win off that mark but the jumping is a huge concern. I held my breath every time he approached a hurdle during that race and I thought that his chances were increased with the last fence ommited, but even so he got himself too far back with poor jumping to really challenge. On his 2 starts since then his jumping has not improved at all imo, if anything it has gotten worse.
He's currently 16/1 and I while his jumping concerns me, I can see him going off much shorter on the day, in a similar fashion to what happened in the County.
 
It's a competitive handicap with no hiding place, and when there are any number of horses who are potentially well-handicapped, I would usually rule-out the bad jumpers first. It's a very hard race to win, if you are constantly having to recover ground/having your rhythm disrupted, at the hurdles.

Having had my first look at the race since MTOY's non-entry, I'm initially drawn to Winter's Escape (16/1 in spots). He can be forgiven his run in Greatwood, as it was his first outing of the season, and they've knocked a couple of points off his handicap mark, as a result (which might have been the plan anyway). He has hasn't been sighted since, and has the look of one that's been laid-out for this, without any other distractions.

And guess who owns?
 
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tiggers1972 said:
This is what NJH has to say about Peace and Co in an article I saw yesterday.

"We are probably quite a way behind, but having said that we are making good progress now, the horse looks fantastic, he hasn't galloped yet but he'll be entered anyway (for the Champion Hurdle)."
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Forgot to hit the enter button hmmmm
 
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Winter Escape gets 10-11 (OR 140), he doesn't need anything to come out, and McManus can boss the weights with Modus.

I've pressed-up.
 
Maybe I pulled the trigger too soon.....

[FONT=&quot]“JP (McManus) also owns [/FONT]Winter Escape[FONT=&quot], and, though he was very disappointing on his seasonal debut in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November, he came back very sick and it has taken a long time to get him right again. He has only just resumed fast work and, though he is in the betting for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next month, I suspect that will come too soon. However, we have certainly not lost faith in Winter Escape, and I still believe he will prove a high-class performer.


[/FONT]Or did I?? :ninja:
 
The fav looks false to me - Ballyandy needed every yard of an extremely searching test in the champion bumper, light weight or not I can't him having the speed for this.

Consul De Thaix looks a likely sort at this early stage,it should be very informative who Barry chooses to ride.
 
fonz said:
The fav looks false to me - Ballyandy needed every yard of an extremely searching test in the champion bumper, light weight or not I can't him having the speed for this.

Consul De Thaix looks a likely sort at this early stage,it should be very informative who Barry chooses to ride.
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Yes, Ballyandy wants 3 miles and Consul De Thaix would be my pick, pretty sure he's an intended runner. Only issue is that he is still a maiden.
 
Marble said:
Ch'tibello looks like Skelton's main hope, due to carry 11:6.
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Yikes way too much...It's not a great renewal but it takes only one Wingman 10st to beat your Punjabi 11.05 and he's no Punjabi IMO

I know he won the Scottish Champion Hurdle but he was getting weight not trying to give away lumps of it

His win over Melodic Rendezvous is worth about zilch so I'd put a pen through his name at the weights
 
Well..... by this logic, Punjabi was back in 4th place behind Straw Bear in the Christmas Hurdle, 19 lengths in fact, before his second place to Wingman. So Ch'tibello's form looks a lot stronger going into this race than Punjabi's. Skeltons horse wouldn't finish third in a Champion Hurdle, but he wouldn't be up against a below average winner like Katchit either.

I'll study the race nearer the time but wouldn't write off Ch'tibello. I'm pretty confident he'll be there or thereabouts. There is one big handicap in him off 149, it'll either be this or The County. ) I may back Ch'tibello while have a saver on something else down the bottom of the handicap.
 
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Marble said:
Well..... Punjabi was back in 4th place behind Straw Bear in the Christmas Hurdle, 19 lengths in fact, before his second place to Wingman. So Ch'tibello's form looks a lot stronger going into this race than Punjabi's.

I'll study the race nearer the time but wouldn't write off Ch'tibello. I'm pretty confident he'll be there or thereabouts. There is one big handicap in him off 149, it'll either be this or The County. )
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He'd really have to be a 156 horse just to be second in a modern Betfair Hurdle, marble. If you believe he is, by all means steam in.

I have him as a 152 horse so unless he comes out and does something before the race I couldn't get excited about him. To be honest, I'd be surprised if he even ran.

Put it this way, if I trained him and I knew 152 was his limit, I wouldn't run him. Skelton might know he's a 162 horse, though, which would be a game-changer.
 
Mick Jazz is the improver with a reasonable weight that I fear.
 
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He's entered to, DO. Has Elliot said he is a definite runner? He's young, could he go for both?
 
What do forumites think the cut off point will be?

What chance would Song Light have of getting in (39 in the list)?
He's not done much wrong over hurdles, has stepped up this season with two big runs at Ascot then a good 3rd in The Greatwood. He's not been punished in the ratings, is situated perfectly to run with precious little weight. I like the look of him. (Assuming you're all right about Ch'tibello and I'm wrong which is probably the case!).
 
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I watched the Greatwood again just now. Song Light looked the winner until North Hill Harvey and Modus found for pressure. Modus was giving 12 pound to Song Light that day, it'll be 22 pound after his Kempton win and subsequent ten pound rise, meaning Song Light is 10lb better off for a one and a quarter length beating in the Greatwood. There's more to this race than first caught my eye...you surely couldn't go wrong backing Songlight at 25's (if only we knew he'd get a run).
 
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Marble said:
He's entered to, DO. Has Elliot said he is a definite runner? He's young, could he go for both?
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I don't know as I haven't checked. I'm assuming he's at least 6lbs higher over here than in Ireland and he'd pick up a penalty rather than being reassessed so maybe they think they can win both, assuming they think he can win this weekend without having a hard race.
 
Marble said:
Well..... by this logic, Punjabi was back in 4th place behind Straw Bear in the Christmas Hurdle, 19 lengths in fact, before his second place to Wingman. So Ch'tibello's form looks a lot stronger going into this race than Punjabi's. Skeltons horse wouldn't finish third in a Champion Hurdle, but he wouldn't be up against a below average winner like Katchit either.

I'll study the race nearer the time but wouldn't write off Ch'tibello. I'm pretty confident he'll be there or thereabouts. There is one big handicap in him off 149, it'll either be this or The County. ) I may back Ch'tibello while have a saver on something else down the bottom of the handicap.
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Behave Punjabi was a typical give them a run round Kempton to sharpen them up job..........totally unfancied outsider of the 3 that mattered whereas Ch'tibello was off for his life.

His best chance will be if it comes up soft then he might get into it but he's too exposed IMO and most likely won't figure if they even ask it of him
 
Marble - if you fancy Ch'tibello don't let anyone else's opinion put you off.

I'll admit to not being in agreement but I've had the Betfair winner when Splash of Ginge made every post a winning one, it's likely I won't pick the winner for at least 20 years.
 
He never would Dan, Martin is the original brick wall when he gets an idea into his head:).....Ch'tibello could end up being a better EW bet in the Champion Hurdle if Mullins only runs one of his pair and he gets good ground and they decide to go that route.

MTOY was used to hassle The New One and set the race up for Yanworth which ensured a strong pace and the best finisher was Ch'tibello who was outpaced early.

The stiffest course he has run at was Ascot when he ran Altior to 1 1/2 lengths as a novice. There's no guarantees he can't reverse form with The New One or even Yanworth on a much stiffer track/Cheltenham if conditions suit.

Last season he was put away and brought back for the Scottish Champion Hurdle in the hope they would get good ground. Turned out it was not what they wanted:Good to Soft so it was a very good performance considering.

Running him at Newbury with the likelihood the ground will be very soft? NRNB is the way I would go because he won't run unless it's decent ground IMO.
 
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