Betfair Hurdle

Collateral form is for fools and that example I was giving was to show just how some people come up with the craziest ratings.

How the hell can you say Sceau Royal has more scope for improvement than Brain Power? There's nothing to say that is the case and plenty to say the exact opposite.

He's gone to Cheltenham with 3 straight wins to his name and got his ass kicked followed by getting another drumming at Aintree and the OH dropped him 5lbs for his troubles.

He wins a nothing race at early doors at Cheltenham the 2nd hasn't been sighted since He then wins a woeful Grade 2 where the would be 2nd and 3rd have been beaten pointless since

Because it was a grade 2 in name only he gets hammered and put up to 156 then he steps into half decent company and gets hammered again and the OH drops him a 1lb.

Where's the scope for improvement.things could get worse FFS

Brain Power has done nothing but improve in 4 of his last 5 races and looks to be on the upgrade.

To top it all you are telling us he has more going for him than dual group 1 winner who just beat Vroum Vroum Mag in the Hatton Grace.....geez you talk some shite
 
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Tanlic said:
Collateral form is for fools
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You turned the argument against yourself, you tried to use collateral form to prove a point but worse than that what you did was bad race reading and handicap misinterpretation.

Tanlic said:
How the hell can you say Sceau Royal has more scope for improvement than Brain Power? There's nothing to say that is the case and plenty to say the exact opposite.
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I explained above in detail using YOUR collateral marker in Zubayr. Initially I used his race against Ravin Black as that is a decent mid 140 horse(or was last season) so when something gives him a proper beating whilst conceding 5lb that is not only a good performance but a high class one.

Tanlic said:
Where's the scope for improvement.things could get worse FFS
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The scope was seen in the race I quoted, he was flying and was extended to win easily. The FF was NOT his real running.

Tanlic said:
Brain Power has done nothing but improve in 4 of his last 5 races and looks to be on the upgrade.
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What? improving in last 4 out of 5 races ?! He ran a stinker in the Greatwood, thats his 3rd last race. He was outclassed on his last race in novice company when 4 lengths behind Petit and that one has gone on to improve more than a stone this season. BP gone on to good things as well but thats only in his last two races against handicappers which means ****-squad until he takes a higher step and either breaks the ceiling or gets exposed like most of them do(anyone remembers Purple Bay)

Tanlic said:
To top it all you are telling us he has more going for him than dual group 1 winner who just beat Vroum Vroum Mag in the Hatton Grace.....geez you talk some shite
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I defended AJ to no end even at the beginning of the season, but since your doing another straw man, I repeat what I said "he's a better prospect in the betting .. or Apple Jade". Her trainer explicitly said she won't take part in no CH if Faugheen or AP show up, which means she stands for NO value on current A/P terms.
 
If you doubt the proximity of other horses the answer is always to check the times. The performance we're talking about with Sceau Royal was also backed up on the clock and DO has every right to believe his rating. I had it 3lb's less but in the same ballpark.

As for the Fighting Fifth King said he was a sick horse after the they checked him out so to use that for line doesn't make sense.

Also by comparison I have Sceau Royal 4lb's ahead of Brain Power who is a third of the odds. I have Yanworth on the same rating as Sceau Royal who is a sixth of the odds.

At his current price he a rare bit of each way value in the Cheltenham markets.
 
I should add that I'm not putting him up as the winner. If either or both of Willie's big guns turn up there's nothing to suggest he can beat them. And if they don't you can't be sure which Sceau Royal will turn up, but I did invest each way some time ago now so admit to a bias. Having said that I wasn't expecting Yanworth to go this way at the time, and assumed only one of Faugheen or Annie Power would turn up if at all given the vibes at the time.

For what it's worth I can genuinely see both of the big guns running. How do they split them? Both have won the race, and as much as the vibes have been that one will be sent elsewhere, how do you decide which on if they're both in top form? If they do I presume it'll be up to Ruby to tell them?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
O-oh... here we go...

You don't agree what I've written so it's up to me to spell out the case?

Forget it. Go and check it out yourself.
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Any comments I've made which you have perceived as snide is only in response to the above.

I don't see much point in me spelling out what entitles Yanworth to be ahead of SR in my mind because that is the commonly held view. When someone offers an opinion in a discussion which is left field then the obvious question is why do you hold that view. If you don't want to discuss it that's entirely up to you but forgive me for placing less value on your opinions as a result.

I explain my rationale to back up opinions when required to do so (such as keeping Yanworth to 2 miles) and question others when they make bold statements without any explanation. I don't see much wrong in that.
 
TheBear said:
I don't see much point in me spelling out what entitles Yanworth to be ahead of SR in my mind because that is the commonly held view. When someone offers an opinion in a discussion which is left field then the obvious question is why do you hold that view. If you don't want to discuss it that's entirely up to you but forgive me for placing less value on your opinions as a result.
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You are free to place as much or as little value on my opinions as you wish. That's your prerogative. But you suggest you'll place less value on them because I don't explain them then all you can say to back up your different opinion is that it's the "commonly held view"?

It's maybe how the market sees things, presumably because Timeform and/or ORs have it that way, but where is the explanation behind those "commonly held" views?
 
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I don't agree that SR is a 160 horse myself - or at least, I can't personally make a case for that rating; mainly because I think his wins were probably poorly-contested, and he's probably a little over-rated by the OH as a result. I can, however, see how a more generous interpretation of his best form, might throw-out such a number.

I'd have Yanworth slightly ahead of SR myself, because - even though I'm no huge fan of TNO or MTOY - beating them over a sharp 2m is a fair enough effort, any way I look at it.

The alternative I have least reservations about is Brain Power. He won a really strong handicap, and maintained his upward curve of progression in doing so - and I wouldn't mind a piece of DO's 25/1, which is a great bet to be holding.

Mind you, as an alternative to the front two, I've backed Footpad at 400 for buttons, which shows how much I know.

Aughex, I reckon Thomas Hobson is too far down the pecking order at WPM's, to run in the Champion Hurdle. Coral Cup might be his race, though he didn't get home in the Neptune last season, and no surprise if they go to Fairyhouse for the 20f Grade 2 at the Irish Nash meeting, or wait for Punchestown instead.
 
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I meant for this race, not for CH - I don't think he's even entered for it.. (why is everyone misinterpreting what I'm saying?)

I remember the reason @DO has Yanworth so lowly rated is because he doesn't holds TNO in high regard. In my mind TNO is up there reaching the best 2 milers in the last decade backed by the fact that he's very rarely been beaten outside the festival(take out the fact that he would've gone real close to win it in `14) in the last 4-5 years, while for @DO TNO is a average 2 miler at his best. For me you can't achieve more to prove yourself a top class 2miler than beating TNO by 3 lengths at Kempton. Anyway each with their interpretation but I agree about Sceau Royal if he'll get his day then I expect him to finish several lengths ahead of BP.
 
My own opinion about SR is that he's a strong traveller who looks impressive when winning soft races. Excuses or not, every time he's come up against high class animals he's been found wanting. If you can't have him as the best of last years juveniles then that leaves him with absolutely no chance imo. I can't see him in the first three even if the RR pair don't make it.

The one plus I'll give him is that he's a very likely runner and as so his price will be much shorter on the day.

I'm not sold on Yanworth either and stand by my comments immediately after the Christmas Hurdle.
 
I think the champion hurdle is becoming a very good race


I think Annie Power has been overrated and is unlikely runner if Faugheen runs
Faugheen was very impressive last time out but is a 9yo and has been injured and out for a long time. Apart of that run, he was a 170 at best so I think he will not be able to run to that level in March
The New One too old and not operating at his best

so the ones to concentrate on are
Brain Power 165p
Peti Moichir 162p
Sceau Royal 155+/ 160?p
Yanworth 161p t+?

Brain Power is the most likely one fo this bunch to improve
 
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Maruco said:
If you doubt the proximity of other horses the answer is always to check the times. The performance we're talking about with Sceau Royal was also backed up on the clock and DO has every right to believe his rating. I had it 3lb's less but in the same ballpark.

As for the Fighting Fifth King said he was a sick horse after the they checked him out so to use that for line doesn't make sense.

Also by comparison I have Sceau Royal 4lb's ahead of Brain Power who is a third of the odds. I have Yanworth on the same rating as Sceau Royal who is a sixth of the odds.

At his current price he a rare bit of each way value in the Cheltenham markets.
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You can do all the calculations you want, twist them around all you want but they still make absolutely no sense and tell me 1000 times that Scea Royal is on a par with Yanworth but the truth is your are talking rubbish and I don't mind telling you that.

Yanworth a horse that Alan King said could be the best horse he has ever trained and was runner up to one of the best horses in Willie Mullins yard VERSUS a horse who couldn't raise a gallop in a Triumph that was so badly contested the winner hasn't won a thing since.....

Sceau Royal won a pig of a race while Yanworth takes on 2 Champion Hurdle horses and kicks them into touch.

Make all the excuses you want the facts are there and King is now saying he'll run him in the Kingwell as he's not sure if he is up to Champion Hurdle class or not.



He certainly doesn't need to be running Yanworth anywhere to find out now does he?
 
Aughex, TNO has failed to win a Grade 1 hurdle at 2-miles every time he has attempted it. He would barely scrape into the list of best 2-mile hurdlers to run in the last ten weeks, never mind the last ten years.

My bad re Thomas Hobson - no drama.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Aughex, TNO has failed to win a Grade 1 hurdle at 2-miles every time he has attempted it. He would barely scrape into the list of best 2-mile hurdlers to run in the last ten weeks, never mind the last ten years.
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"every time he has attempted it." Thats only 3 times outside the festival, the `13, `15, `16 Christmas Hurdles. Its not like in Ire where 2m G1s are run every other week. There's only the FF and Christmas Hurdle, then the Chelt CH. I have no doubt he would've won every renewal of the FF and the `13 Christmas Hurdle without the mistake at the last he would've got past MTOY. He would've even won the `14 CH if things went to plan(lost a great position once the incident happened plus more than 5 lengths which in that sort of a race are hard to make back up and he still finished ahead of HF in the end).
 
Aughex said:
I remember the reason @DO has Yanworth so lowly rated is because he doesn't holds TNO in high regard.
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Yes and no, Aughex.

I don't hold him in high enough regard to take him as a serious CH contender, although if sunybay is correct about Faugheen and Annie Power this year's race might not take a lot of winning.

I've had him as a pretty solid 162 hurdler for a couple of seasons now and that's my problem with him. Only in a very ordinary year would a 162 hurdler have championship pretensions.

I admit I have a downer on this year's Christmas Hurdle. There are two converging reasons for this: Ch'tibello and MTOY.

MTOY was beaten 12lbs by TNO in the International. In the Christmas Hurdle he was beaten 5lbs. Was he 7lbs better then or was TNO 7lbs off form?

That's where Ch'tibello comes in. He was a 152p horse beforehand yet gave MTOY a 2lbs+ beating. That would make this performance for MTOY worth 150 which, very coincidentally, puts him 12lbs behind TNO's 162. Ch'tibello was ridden to pick up the scraps that day, only being asked for a serious effort after two out and he strikes me as the most reliable marker for the form. Given that he was a 'p' horse going into it I can allow a general raising of the ratings for the race but I can't quantify by how much. It puts Yanworth on 158+ for that race but that's 1lb below my previous figure for him. I have no difficulty accepting that the form is maybe a couple of pounds better than I'm rating it as that would allow MTOY a little improvement from his previous run - he may be being brought along for the County - and TNO a little short of his best in a race that may have come a tad soon after Cheltenham.

What I can't get out of my mind is how Yanworth appeared to struggle to go the pace at Kempton. I would be concerned that he has enough speed for the big one. And let's not forget, until UNWIMH came along Yanworth was connections' Stayers' Hurdle horse. Sceau Royal, on the other hand, was never off the bit first time up behind a good pace at Cheltenham and, on some lines, improved a fair bit at Wincanton, again showing plenty of pace when asked.

I reckon anyone with access to recordings could do worse than look at those races again. I'm much more of a number-cruncher than one to be visually taken by performances but Sceau Royal looked fast to me (and my figures back that up) whereas Yanworth looked short of pace.
 
Aughex said:
Its not like in Ire where 2m G1s are run every other week.
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Much as I want this thread to be about the Betfair rather than the CH, I can't let you get away with that. Open G1 2m hurdles in Ireland are:
November - Morgiana
December - December (Leopardstown)
January - Irish Champion
April - Punchestown Champion

The number of UK trained runners can normally be counted on the fingers of one foot.
 
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vs horse racing population? Thats like 3 times more than they need. Morgiana,December and P'town CH should be G2s considering the lack of competition.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I reckon anyone with access to recordings could do worse than look at those races again. I'm much more of a number-cruncher than one to be visually taken by performances but Sceau Royal looked fast to me (and my figures back that up) whereas Yanworth looked short of pace.
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Yes but thats the vicious circle I'm getting into with this, was that furlong where Yanworth looked short of space because he was up against 2 very fast horses-both almost winning the CH in the past-? He did get hold of them and BG didn't looked like asking too much when putting distance between himself and TNO. Also I remember pre-UNWIMH, Geraghty made a comment about Yanworth which I've said at the time was bonkers that he's more inclined to go for staying route. BG mind was already made up so once back over 2 miles in the Christmas Hurdle on the final turn he asked him like a stayer but the horse responded with a turn of foot-not straight away admittedly so if he'll ride him with more confidence next time and on a more suiting track then he could be a major player even to AP weight allowance. I believe thats why Willie will run them both in the CH if Faugheen runs well next week(or if he runs at all) because he won't risk loosing the CH and neither would RR.
 
Tbh, TNO looks a good bet to grab his first gd1 2 miler today He's just a galloper, and today's holding ground and weak opposition look the perfect opportunity for STD to get the fractions right for a a change - won't make him a good horse, though
 
Aughex said:
"every time he has attempted it." Thats only 3 times outside the festival, the `13, `15, `16 Christmas Hurdles. Its not like in Ire where 2m G1s are run every other week. There's only the FF and Christmas Hurdle, then the Chelt CH. I have no doubt he would've won every renewal of the FF and the `13 Christmas Hurdle without the mistake at the last he would've got past MTOY. He would've even won the `14 CH if things went to plan(lost a great position once the incident happened plus more than 5 lengths which in that sort of a race are hard to make back up and he still finished ahead of HF in the end).
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If's, but's, maybe's and conjecture don't wash with me. Neither does selective use of the stats.

The simple fact is that he has been beaten in all six Grade 1 Hurdle outings at two miles, which tells you all you need to know about his level at the trip.
 
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just heard Graham Cunningham pull up a fact checker for anyone, he's won 15 out of 16 races out of G1s, then in the 9 G1s he won 2, he's been 2nd in 4 of them, an unlucky 3rd in the 2014 CH. Thats in the last 5 years. If this is not in your top list of horses in the last decade then you're blinkered.

@reet, in Britain there are only 3 G1s races all season over 2 mile hurdles. Todays not one of them.
 
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The New One has always had the same problem he can't handle the change of pace in the CH finishing well without ever getting involved.

One length behind MTOY at the top of the hill and looking relaxed despite being hampered early he simply couldn't go with them and lost about 5 lengths.

Ran a similar race behind Faugheen being caught flat footed again and he was in even better form that year.

Anyway 2 things will happen today. L'ami Sege will beat The New One and Jacobs will say how much he is looking forward to riding him in the Champion Hurdle : Oh and that should shut there SR punters up:)
 
I'm cheering on The New One. His rank as a hurdler doesn't matter. He always tries hard..that's what I like. A token bet on him too.
 
Tanlic said:
You can do all the calculations you want, twist them around all you want but they still make absolutely no sense and tell me 1000 times that Scea Royal is on a par with Yanworth but the truth is your are talking rubbish and I don't mind telling you that.

Yanworth a horse that Alan King said could be the best horse he has ever trained and was runner up to one of the best horses in Willie Mullins yard VERSUS a horse who couldn't raise a gallop in a Triumph that was so badly contested the winner hasn't won a thing since.....

Sceau Royal won a pig of a race while Yanworth takes on 2 Champion Hurdle horses and kicks them into touch.

Make all the excuses you want the facts are there and King is now saying he'll run him in the Kingwell as he's not sure if he is up to Champion Hurdle class or not.



He certainly doesn't need to be running Yanworth anywhere to find out now does he?
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It's rubbish in your opinion Tanlic, and you're entitled to your view. The view I've taken is on form and time, and you've taken yours by your view of his performance by your eye. Fair enough, and there's nothing wrong with that if it gets you to the right place.

I don't understand why you reference last season though. You know as well as I do how young horses strengthen up and improve between seasons. Sceau Royal clearly has irrespective of how you and I might differ on how much by.

The other thing to consider as part of the equation is that the two horses need to be compared over two miles this season, not over different trips last season.

As I said previously I'm not touting Sceau Royal as the Champion Hurdle winner, just that my figures have him massively overpriced. Particularly given there's sufficient doubt about who turns up for Mullins, and the collateral form over course and distance for others isn't exactly in the book. I often talk rubbish but given all of that I'd say you're off the mark on this occasion.
 
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