Betfair Hurdle

Tanlic said:
MTOY was used to hassle The New One and set the race up for Yanworth which ensured a strong pace and the best finisher was Ch'tibello who was outpaced early.

The stiffest course he has run at was Ascot when he ran Altior to 1 1/2 lengths as a novice. There's no guarantees he can't reverse form with The New One or even Yanworth on a much stiffer track/Cheltenham if conditions suit.

Last season he was put away and brought back for the Scottish Champion Hurdle in the hope they would get good ground. Turned out it was not what they wanted:Good to Soft so it was a very good performance considering.

Running him at Newbury with the likelihood the ground will be very soft? NRNB is the way I would go because he won't run unless it's decent ground IMO.
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On the contrary, Fist, TNO set no great pace, and Yanworth finished much the best of the bunch (particularly considering the ground and track was against him,). Imo Yanworth is a piece better horse than many give credit for, and that BG opted to ride him rather than MTOY (or Jezki in Ireland)was a sure indication that he'd shown more speed at home than many expected
 
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Lots of possible interpretations of that situation.

Geraghty knows MTOY better than Yanworth so maybe felt he needed to find out more. Jezki wasn't fit. Maybe MTOY is thought to be in decline and yanworth on the rise. Maybe none of the McManus horses is going to be good enough.Maybe they're going to be 1-2-3.

I'm more inclined to believe SR is ahead of Yanworth in King's pecking order.
 
Geraghty had to ride Yanworth to find out whether he was a 2-miler or not. I don't think it has anything to do with 'knowing' he had the speed beforehand.

I figure MTOY is a superbly-handicapped animal off 154, and I'm convinced that they are going to smash-up a big handicap with him. If not the Betfair, then the County.

Mere handicappers won't be able to get him off the bridle - unlike proper G1 horses who can, at which point he throws in the towel. His problem isn't diminishing talent, imo - it's indolence, and he wouldn't have to put it all in, running from such a lenient mark, against inferior animals.

That's the theory anyway.
 
Clock would disagree with you Elgin clocked 7.3 seconds slow, Doesyourdogbite 15.3 seconds slow, Yanworth 3.2 seconds so they have gone a fair clip.

BTW the clock says Ch'tibello was 3.84 inches faster than Yanworth from the last.......or 1 hundredth of a second. Easy to calculate horse length is 8ft or 96" * 4 lengths = 384 inches / .01seconds = 3.84" U lose :lol:

On a more serious note Yanworth might be a Champion Hurdle horse but as I said at the very beginning of the season that MTOY might not make the Champion Hurdle this season.

I honestly think we are at a stage where none of the mentioned like Jezki MTOY or TNO will have the slightest bearing on the Champion Hurdle.

No doubt in my mind the horse with the best credentials is Annie Power

However I am sticking to Petit Mouchoir who I reckon will beat faugheen at the end of the month.......this is one very very good horse IMO

Should I prepare to be shot at or what?
 
Think you underestimate the savvy of Yanworth's connections, Grass; The mere fact the horse was entered for a gd1 - ostensibly over the wrong track & ground, and that BG came over specifically to ride him suggest, they weren't entertaining any angel unawares, so to speak
 
DanB88 said:
Marble - if you fancy Ch'tibello don't let anyone else's opinion put you off.

I'll admit to not being in agreement but I've had the Betfair winner when Splash of Ginge made every post a winning one, it's likely I won't pick the winner for at least 20 years.
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I think you lads are right about Ch'tibello now Dan. There's nothing wrong with changing your mind a bit. I think Ch'tibello could finish in the first six if declared. He'd be a good yardstick to measure the form if that happened, but I'm much more interested in Song Light at the bottom, for reasons I've already mentioned.
 
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reet hard said:
Think you underestimate the savvy of Yanworth's connections, Grass; The mere fact the horse was entered for a gd1 - ostensibly over the wrong track & ground, and that BG came over specifically to ride him suggest, they weren't entertaining any angel unawares, so to speak
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I preference to what Reet? Riding MTOY who looks a shadow of his old self or riding 2 off McManus's in 5 grand races (Which won)

Armed with info from Nicky Henderson and Alan King plus the knowledge that the race was worth 56,000 quid it would take 2 seconds to work out which to ride the way MTOY folded when apparently ready at Ascot.
 
reet hard said:
Think you underestimate the savvy of Yanworth's connections, Grass; The mere fact the horse was entered for a gd1 - ostensibly over the wrong track & ground, and that BG came over specifically to ride him suggest, they weren't entertaining any angel unawares, so to speak
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Dunno, reet.

Yanworth basically can't run anywhere other than Graded races anyway, and I think it was more a fishing mission, to establish if he was a genuine CH contender or not.......especially given McManus doesn't really have anything else for the race. I suppose you could say that he passed the test, but he still looks bereft of any tactical pace to me, and if either of the two Mullins horses make it to the tape, I have him down as fighting for the places at best.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm more inclined to believe SR is ahead of Yanworth in King's pecking order.
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You believe it or you hope it? I don't see how anyone could have SR ahead of Yanworth right now so that's probably your pocket talking.

The tactical speed argument against Yanworth is certainly a valid one but Cheltenham is certainly going to suit him more than Kempton. If he comes up against either of the RR pair I couldn't have him but he certainly looks the pick of the rest.



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Just realised this discussion is taking place in the wrong thread.


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Hi DO. As a big fan of Sceau Royal myself, I had hopes he could be a 160+ horse earlier this year. Had a max bet on him in the FF and naturally was left disappointed. You have him a potential 5lbs better than Yanworth, and the OR has Yanworth 9lbs better. That's a stone different, which is a fair leap at either end of the ratings scale. I haven't given up on SR yet myself, so would love a further insight into your figures. Genuine question. Cheers
 
Desert Orchid said:
O-oh... here we go...

You don't agree what I've written so it's up to me to spell out the case?

Forget it. Go and check it out yourself.
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Oh I've checked and checked again but can't seem to find anything at all. More fool me.

Good to see that you're willing to debate the subject though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
O-oh... here we go...

You don't agree what I've written so it's up to me to spell out the case?

Forget it. Go and check it out yourself.
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Love it when DO does this. Its his Rating...and none of you are getting to find out how he gets them :lol:
 
I'm just intrigued Digger. I like SR a lot and genuinely value/Respect DO's opinion. Vicente last year a recent one that springs to mind about how he outsmarted the handicapper.
 
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TheBear said:
Oh I've checked and checked again but can't seem to find anything at all. More fool me.

Good to see that you're willing to debate the subject though.
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While appreciating Double Handful's supportive comments, it's snide remarks like this that harden my position. You're clearly not a diplomat, TheBear.

I'm not going to say that you're a fool. I prefer to take the Wildean view.

I spend hour after hour working out figures and all I get is, effectively, "Are you serious?"

Ratings and other form evaluation is entirely subjective. I could spell out race by race, form line by form line how I arrived at my high figure for Sceau Royal but from certain quarters all I would get is some comment casting doubt on it, backed up by, "It's a forum. It's up for debate." But the debate is one-sided. You want me to justify my figure but you don't offer your own or any justification for them. All you say is:
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  • Oh I've checked and checked again but can't seem to find anything at all​




</b>
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If I'm wrong about Sceau Royal I'll lose no shortage of money and a lot of face, just as when I went high with Sign Of A Victory and Peace And Co, among others, in recent years.

I won't deny I have concerns about Sceau Royal:

Are my figures right?
Can he win as a 5yo? (I've never said he would win, by the way.)
Is Yanworth better?
Would Petit Mouchoir have won the FF and does King really believe SR would have beaten PM on the day had he not been wrong on the day?

It's just me offering my opinion and backing it up with hard cash.

If I'm wrong I'll live with it.
 
I agree with DO about SR, he's put up a hell of a performance for the 9l beating of Raving Black while also giving him 5lb. I think I've said it before but I thought that was one of the best perf. of the season in that sphere. However, RB seems as he's not the same horse as last season when only 2 lengths(& receiving 8lbs) behind TNO last January. I don't think SR put anywhere his best in the FF so if he comes back I think he's alot better than the likes of L'ami or Ivan.

At least in the CH betting its worth a dab at this stage & odds, when everything is up in the air with the market leaders. But then there are other 3 top contenders that he'll have not only to come back but to improve to get pass, Petit TNO and Yanworth. The latter though has the most scope for improvement considering the good turn of foot in the Chirstmas Hurdle and he'll be more suited by Chelt so over 2 miles at the CH speed Yanworth'll need every bit of stamina especially against other stamina horses like AP and/or Faugheen.

But thats enough for the CH. Has anyone put Thomas Hubson for this race yet? I hate to bet on Willie's A/P but he looks massive at 33/1 carrying only 11 stones if he returns to same form of last season.
 
I can't see an angle that wouldn't have Sceau Royal tailed off in a Champion Hurdle and I have tried.

I backed him in the Triumph and the winner who saved my bacon fortunately and he never raised a gallop after looking the part early doors.

Again this season he grabbed the limelight early doors and fooled some people into thinking he could be a live contender for the Champion Hurdle.

But seriously that Elite Hurdle was as moderate a pointer to a Champion Hurdle as you are ever likely to see.

Sceau Royal beat Rayvin Black but 2nd place should have gone to Zubayr who fell.

So what did he beat? Rayvin Black takes on Brain Power getting weight like he did against Sceau Royal goes off at 50/1 and is tailed off. He seems ok and goes chasing and gets tailed off again.

So Zubayr who would have finished second went to Ascot and was giving Brain Power 2 lbs and was beaten 11 lengths.

Now if you want to convince yourself that Sceau Royal is a serious Champion Hurdler contender you could say Sceau Royal could have beaten Zubayr by 11 lengths had he stood up and he was giving him 9lbs so he must be a better horse than Brain Power.

I doubt if Alan King was looking at it that way. His first reaction after the Elite was to suggest he might run him in a handicap but decided against it because it came too soon.

As it turned out he decided to throw him in to test the water and take on Apple Jade and co in the fighting Fifth where like at Cheltenham and at Aintree he found it well beyond him.
There was no real excuse Alan King citing that age old phrase he wasn't quite right when pushed for a reason for the flop,

King now plans to run him in the Kingwell as does Skelton intend to run Ch'tibello which should tell us which one if any will go for the Champion Hurdle

I just wonder is Alan King only talking CH for Sceau Royal, who has already shown 3 times he has limited ability, because of who owns him?

As for Ch'tibello, I assume if Skelton is serious that the Kingwell is his aim to decide CH or not you can forget an appearance in the Betfair Hurdle
 
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Zubayr wouldn't have finished within 5 lengths of a not-extended Sceau Royal. He was also getting 9 pounds from him. Thats easily 15 lengths between them on level weights as SR wasn't hard pushed in the Elite.
Then you compare Zubayr with Brain Power but this time the former had to give weight away 2lb and STD was all-out and would've been passed by Consul in another 50 yards, all the while Scholfield on Zubayr was giving in and stopped asking him. 11 lengths at the line so at best 9 lengths between them.

Based on above I'd say SR not only is comfortably on top of BP but also has alot more improving in store. Obviously lto(and end of last season) isn't representative of a horse that always shows its best. BUT if he does he'll be visible on TV at the business end, he won't be that tailed off. He has potential of a 160+ while there are only couple horses running above 165+(NC-won't run, Petit, Yanworth, TNO) so anything happens with those or he gets the run of the race somehow(?!) then he's a better prospect in the betting than L'ami, Brain Power or Apple Jade or Superb Story for what is worth..
 
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