Betfair Hurdle

Very strange Nicky is thinking Kingwell If it cuts up and it's a bad race it won't matter if he wins . Even if he beats Paddy McGinty's goat his a$$ is grass

The handicapper will murder him and the County is then out of the window.........Like Brain Power a aery hard horse to place as he'd get kicked aside big time in the Champion

If something like the New One turned up for the Kingwell and beat him a length that will really F*** him up.

Best bet might be back him AP for the Arkle 2019 if you think he's that good
 
Tanlic said:
Very strange Nicky is thinking Kingwell If it cuts up and it's a bad race it won't matter if he wins . Even if he beats Paddy McGinty's goat his a$$ is grass

The handicapper will murder him and the County is then out of the window.........Like Brain Power a aery hard horse to place as he'd get kicked aside big time in the Champion

If something like the New One turned up for the Kingwell and beat him a length that will really F*** him up.

Best bet might be back him AP for the Arkle 2019 if you think he's that good
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I think if he wins a Kingwell then he's more than entitled to take his chance in a Champion Hurdle that lacks strength in depth. Ch'tibello's owner summed it up best for me recently when he said anything can be second including us.

Why the devil i'd back something Ante-post for a novice chase when I've never seen him jump a fence or for that matter know how good he is, is beyond me. Have you been at the Yabba out there ? I still think people are missing the point of the champion hurdle bet. He will not run unless he does something between now and then. If he won a Kingwell at his age he'd be 12/1 max for an attempt for the big one. Probably even then Nicky would decide to keep him for Aintree or Punchestown and that would be time to bash your head up the wall with frustration but it certainly wouldn't be the first time I've done that when involved with a member of the Henderson Mob.
 
Danny said:
Re- Irish Roe Des I couldn't really take it in earlier as I was in the middle of doing my brains today strange really as the day has posed some positives from an ante-post perspective. Do I think she's flattered by proximity to Marias benefit or do I actually think Marias Benefit it worthy of 152 rating then probably not. What I would say though is that back in 3rd and 4th you have a 139 rated and 140 rated who are 7L and 8L who've run close enough to each other to suggest that's realistic. Irish Roe has put 7 lengths on them and is rated 134. I think even a conservative estimate of 144 gives her 10lbs in hand and that in itself is justification for her being one of the market leaders come off time in the Betfair providing of course she lines up.
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Yes. Initial back-of-fag-pack calcs put her on 146 before any consideration of the times on the day. That would put her in with a favourite's chance, I'd say.

On the downside, I don't like mares in those big handicaps. Her under-the-radar trainer might mean her price will be longer than it should be. Has there been any mention from connections about whether she goes to Newbury?

Oh, and don't forget Vicario Di Bray... :)

Edit - I should also mention that it will be interesting to see what the handicapper actually does. It looks like it was a true-run race so it's more likely that he will take the form somewhere close to face value, in which case he could put her up 12lbs.

I think once that sinks in with the general betting public - ie that she's officially ridiculously well handicapped - and gets a proper mention on the racing TV programmes, it's unlikely she'll be a double-figure price.

But if Cliffs Of Dover really is a Champion Hurdle contender it's game over for everyone :lol:
 
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Whether or not she goes to Newbury is anyone's guess. The fact she had 3 runs in a month and then has been given a break and has run after the weights have come out looks like a well executed plan to me, providing she sneaks in. If the horse has come out of today well enough you'd have to be bonkers not to have a go at it wouldn't you Des ? Nearly a stone well in, big prize money it's the opportunity of a life time for a small yard.
 
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Danny said:
I think if he wins a Kingwell then he's more than entitled to take his chance in a Champion Hurdle that lacks strength in depth. Ch'tibello's owner summed it up best for me recently when he said anything can be second including us.

Why the devil i'd back something Ante-post for a novice chase when I've never seen him jump a fence or for that matter know how good he is, is beyond me. Have you been at the Yabba out there ? I still think people are missing the point of the champion hurdle bet. He will not run unless he does something between now and then. If he won a Kingwell at his age he'd be 12/1 max for an attempt for the big one. Probably even then Nicky would decide to keep him for Aintree or Punchestown and that would be time to bash your head up the wall with frustration but it certainly wouldn't be the first time I've done that when involved with a member of the Henderson Mob.
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No I am not on Yabba ya fookin dumplin:lol: Winning the Kingwell entitles you to SFA if you beat a boat. Yanworth won it and failed miserably as did Melodic Rendezvous and Zarkandar others like Rayvin Black Blue Heron never even ran it the Champion. You have to go back to Binocular to find a top drawer hurdler and he was past his best by then and ended up unplaced. Last horse to win both was Katchit . This Champion Hurdle is no walk over with Buveur D'Air Faugheen My Tent of Your all tried and tested seasoned campaigners along with The New One Defi Du Seuil and Melon your mans Ch'tibello wouldn't get placed wittharocket tied to it's ass..........Call Me Sid has more chance than Call Me Lord IMVHO
 
Tbh I don't think you'll win any medals for bravery with those opinions Tan. If your someone who has a desire to be right the majority of the time then you go the right way about it. Saying Call Me lord won't win a champion hurdle your 1/40 at least to be right I think when Des put up Saphir de rheu for the GC the other week you also said that wouldn't win a mere 1/66 shot.

I wouldn't say the Champion Hurdle will be a walk over it never is Boover as I like to call him looks solid and his price reflects that but as for the rest I don't think there is that much to be afraid of in truth and your list tried an tested is as much proof as one would need to try and find something unexpected to emerge as a solid challenger.

Faugheen last seen pulling up even your Call me sid would have beaten him on that occasion.
The New One currently on course for the Stayers Hurdle if NTD is to be believed so irrelevant.
My Tent or yours certainly tried and tested and has come up short every year every chance if nothing else emerges that he will place again but that's at best.
Melon fair enough I suppose and a reasonable chance.
Defi- Beat by staying hurdlers when last seen not a great sign.

Remembering a fair few of those should clash in the Irish Champion hurdle and there can only be one winner the rest won't look so promising once beaten.

I'd agree the Kingwell isn't normally a strong trial that's fairly obvious. Katchit the last one to do the double was also a 5yo in other words still able to improve. I think just off the top of my head Hors la loi did the double too. So if that's 2 winners in the last 20 years oh that's terrible stats but I dare say if you could have backed all Kingwell winners for the last 20 years at 40/1 for the champion hurdle ante-post then your a poor sod for backing 18 losers :rolleyes:

I have no desire to be right all of the time when your backing horses on a regular basis from 20/1 to 100/1 you get used to losing, being wrong and looking foolish most of the time. Call me a lord turns out to be a donkey, I just brush myself off and move onto the next project but I very much doubt I'll lose money on this one either way given NRNB.
 
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The concern with Call Me Lord is that his best form is on Soft/Heavy, and appears to be appreciably poorer on quicker ground.

I’m not convinced they’ll run him at Cheltenham. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock if connections aimed him at the Prix La Barka, to see if he had the stamina for the French Champion Hurdle. Munir/Souede are usually more than happy to have a dash at the big Auteuil races, with horses in their string trained outside France.

That’s the way I’d go with CML anyway.
 
Grasshopper said:
The concern with Call Me Lord is that his best form is on Soft/Heavy, and appears to be appreciably poorer on quicker ground.

I’m not convinced they’ll run him at Cheltenham. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock if connections aimed him at the Prix La Barka, to see if he had the stamina for the French Champion Hurdle. Munir/Souede are usually more than happy to have a dash at the big Auteuil races, with horses in their string trained outside France.

That’s the way I’d go with CML anyway.
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Yeah its a possibility and I'm sort of half and half between thinking he's a mud lark or not. Poorer form on quicker ground I'm not sure about Grass, he was beaten first time up on better ground but that's not solid evidence really. He's only been beaten twice once on his debut he was beaten 23L (on soft) and then markedly stepped up on his next performance and he's been easily beaten on seasonal debut and then a much improved performance again. There is not a lot to go on either way but that could suggest he's one that just needs a run. His one run for Henderson last season as a juvenile he's won on good ground and it was a solidly run race. He did so much wrong in it in terms of hurdling but still came out on top. Taking into account that Henderson hadn't had him long and this being his first run for him was probably more a case of lets have a look at what we've got rather than an all out prepared for the day must win this type scenario. That given I don't think the performance is too far removed from what you'd expect from a top Juvenile.

I honestly think I'm spending too long talking about what is most likely a Non runner but if people keep posing questions then I'll happily try to answer them best I can or at least my view on them.
 
Any news on whether Lalor will get a run after the passing of Richard Woolacott?
Appreciate it's still a bit raw, just merely wondering where things stand now with the stable etc.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes. Initial back-of-fag-pack calcs put her on 146 before any consideration of the times on the day. That would put her in with a favourite's chance, I'd say.

...

Edit - I should also mention that it will be interesting to see what the handicapper actually does. It looks like it was a true-run race so it's more likely that he will take the form somewhere close to face value, in which case he could put her up 12lbs.
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I was just a pound out. I can live with that.

I still believe once the general betting public, not to mention the media pundits, realise this the price will start to contract.

In theory, she will be unusually well-handicapped. Were it an ordinary Saturday handicapped she'd be entitled to be evens favourite.
 
I've gone in again at 16/1 in the simple belief that she MUST shorten (assuming there are any serious handicapping enthusiasts out there).

Even in the Grand National such a handicapping situation would see the horse go down to single figures.

My plan, of course, is to lay the bet off at shorter but it doesn't alter the simple fact that on official ratings she will have the best chance in the race.

(But I still think Cliffs Of Dover, if it is genuinely the best hurdler in the yard, will 'do a Zarkandar'.
 
Have followed you in at 16/1, DO.

Unusually for me, I've no strong opinion on the race, and she is undeniably well-handicapped. Good luck.
 
I'm going to take a look at this Cliffs Of Dover Des see what I make of him as you seem fairly keen on the idea and he is a hell of a price for this. Is it just a theory on the approach to the race that interests you re- repeating the way Nicholls did it with Zarkander or do you have a figure on him as well to back up the theory that he could improve up to Champion Hurdle class ?
 
I don't have a proper rating for him, Danny. It's more a matter of trying to read Nicholls.

We know he targets the race - as do so many - and it's fair to assume he only throws his best darts at it. Movewiththetimes last season, for example, would have been an impressive winner without Ballyandy who was then well fancied for the Supreme.

As I said earlier in the thread, COD is Nicholls's ONLY entry for the Champion Hurdle. The trainer has Old Guard running in good races off a mark in the high 150s yet he doesn't consider him even worth entering. I'm putting two and two together and maybe coming up with 22 but if COD is considered to be a better horse than Old Guard he must be close to or even better than 160, currently with an OR of 145. Zarkandar won the Betfair off a higher mark and then followed it up with a good run in the Champion as a 5yo. He went on the following season to a mark in the high 160s.

Cliffs Of Dover was, iirc, favourite for the Triumph before Christmas last season until injury forced him out. Defi Du Seuil is currently 157 and thought likely to be better. He was mooted as a possible winner of the Champion Hurdle, despite his age, this season. People fancied him for this off 157. Could COD be better than him?

As Kenny Dalglish would say, miibes aye, mibbes naw.

But I felt the price more than made up for the mibbes.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I don't have a proper rating for him, Danny. It's more a matter of trying to read Nicholls.

We know he targets the race - as do so many - and it's fair to assume he only throws his best darts at it. Movewiththetimes last season, for example, would have been an impressive winner without Ballyandy who was then well fancied for the Supreme.

As I said earlier in the thread, COD is Nicholls's ONLY entry for the Champion Hurdle. The trainer has Old Guard running in good races off a mark in the high 150s yet he doesn't consider him even worth entering. I'm putting two and two together and maybe coming up with 22 but if COD is considered to be a better horse than Old Guard he must be close to or even better than 160, currently with an OR of 145. Zarkandar won the Betfair off a higher mark and then followed it up with a good run in the Champion as a 5yo. He went on the following season to a mark in the high 160s.

Cliffs Of Dover was, iirc, favourite for the Triumph before Christmas last season until injury forced him out. Defi Du Seuil is currently 157 and thought likely to be better. He was mooted as a possible winner of the Champion Hurdle, despite his age, this season. People fancied him for this off 157. Could COD be better than him?

As Kenny Dalglish would say, miibes aye, mibbes naw.

But I felt the price more than made up for the mibbes.
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Diamond Geezer said:
Cliffs Of Dover more likely for the County Hurdle ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/ra...tml?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
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FWIW I thought that was absolutely sound reasoning for around 7 minutes.
 
At least the Cheltenham bets for COD are NRNB so no damage there but it looks like I've dunmadough for the Schweppes.
 
Console yourself with the fact your on the favourite at 16's Des and the fact we get the mouth watering prospect of "Kingwell's clash of the titans" dark horse against dark horse. "The Wellywanger at Wincaton " not exactly rumble in the jungle but it'll do.
 
Desert Orchid said:
At least the Cheltenham bets for COD are NRNB so no damage there but it looks like I've dunmadough for the Schweppes.
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Hmmm... a wee glimmer of optimism this evening...

I thought maybe I was reading a wee bit too much into PN's comments today about COD missing Newbury in the sense that it seemed he was implying that the ground would be the real reason for missing it, and finishing off with a "we shall see" or words to that effect. The suspicious bastert in me wondered whether he was still seriously considering it but wanted to keep the horse under the radar.

The other day it had drifted to 50-odd at Betfair. Tonight it's back in to 37 and blue with a couple of firms.

I just wonder...
 
Nicholls’ Champion Hurdle record is truly dire, DO. If he had one with a chance, I doubt if he’d be inclined to try and be too clever with it.

I personally couldn’t have this one for a CH, and he strikes me as being a Clerks Choice type of animal. Looks a bit optimistic, imo.
 
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