Black Caviar

The only horse in recent decades to race in europe in sprint races able to give Black Caviar is Dayjur ,
the only way she is beaten in June is her to underperform by a stone and to be in the wrong side in the race is splitted in 2 groups.
 
Forgive me if I don't wait with bated breath to see what stevem says after going away to study the 57 entries. I wonder, if not aware of hype/available odds/aus championing, would he be so keen to talk down the chances of this mare who has not been less than utterly dominant for well over a year. If she were 16s we would be queueing to help ourselves, bearing in mind the record of scenic blast and others. Now .. Well different hemisphere ... and 6 furlongs... Really?

As with parallels drawn between Big Buck's and Frankel on another thread have illustrated, finding something to 'give a race' to these dominant champions is not the challenge. Beat them or get beat. You don't get paid out on giving them a race. Good luck to anyone who gives this mare a race, it is entirely possible. But I don't envisage a defeat from any of our current talented, but less talented than her, sprinters.
Can't wait to see her, and was the first one booked on a trip to newmarket the week ascot to visit!
 
uncle goober said:
Forgive me if I don't wait with bated breath to see what stevem says after going away to study the 57 entries. I wonder, if not aware of hype/available odds/aus championing, would he be so keen to talk down the chances of this mare who has not been less than utterly dominant for well over a year. If she were 16s we would be queueing to help ourselves, bearing in mind the record of scenic blast and others. Now .. Well different hemisphere ... and 6 furlongs... Really?
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All I meant by this is there is no need to come up with a hasty alternative.

I’ve already said she is a worthy favourite, but that at odds-on it seems worth finding something to oppose her with.

Of course at 16/1 she is the obvious bet. But she’s not 16/1.

It’s not a difficult thing to understand surely.
 
sunybay said:
The only horse in recent decades to race in europe in sprint races able to give Black Caviar is Dayjur ,
the only way she is beaten in June is her to underperform by a stone and to be in the wrong side in the race is splitted in 2 groups.
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This is simply not the case. If she underperforms by a stone she won't be in the first half of the field.
 
If she underperforms by 10lbs it will still take a late 120s colt to beat her with her sex allowance. We have nothing like that in training.
 
Euronymous said:
If she underperforms by 10lbs it will still take a late 120s colt to beat her with her sex allowance. We have nothing like that in training.
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Again it depends what scale we're talking. She ran to and RPR of 128 in her last race winning by a length or so. An RPR of 114 would see her knowhere. I don't expect her to run to 114, I'm simply pointing out that it is a silly thing to say.
 
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Unless she is currently under-rated, which is possible. You cannot accurately rate a horse that wins with so little effort. The suspicion remains she is more than capable of posting a higher figure.

On the subject of exagg-ing ... A favourite of mine is when a tv person cliche-says, about a half brother to a group winner ... " And needs only to be half as good as his illustrious relation to make a winning debut here".
Errmmm that would make him rated 58 so probably wouldn't !
 
Euronymous said:
I'm going with the Timeform scale - although they tend to routinely overrate sprinters more than other horses.
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Okay. Fair enough. I don't mind what scale you want to use. But there isn't a horse alive that could run a stone below its rating and win at this level.
 
uncle goober said:
Unless she is currently under-rated, which is possible. You cannot accurately rate a horse that wins with so little effort. The suspicion remains she is more than capable of posting a higher figure.
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I don't think we can say that a 6yo that has run 21 times is underrated. How much more exposed would you like her to be?
 
Steve,

A typical bias European list, where are the horses from the rest of the world?

Hong Kong: Silent Witness and on his best day, Sacred Kingdom.

Australia: Manikato, Placid Ark, Schillachi, Shaftesbury Avenue, Vain, Zeditave.

New Zealand: Mr. Tiz

USA: Dr Fager, Chinnook Pass.

Horses like Manikato, Placid Ark and Vain were a world above most horses during their time. Sadly they didn't have access to airplanes at the time to get them shipped over to strut their stuff.
 
Grand Armee said:
Steve,

A typical bias European list, where are the horses from the rest of the world?

Hong Kong: Silent Witness and on his best day, Sacred Kingdom.

Australia: Manikato, Placid Ark, Schillachi, Shaftesbury Avenue, Vain, Zeditave.

New Zealand: Mr. Tiz

USA: Dr Fager, Chinnook Pass.

Horses like Manikato, Placid Ark and Vain were a world above most horses during their time. Sadly they didn't have access to airplanes at the time to get them shipped over to strut their stuff.
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I said the list wasn't exhaustive. My point was to contest the assertion that she's the best sprinter in the past 50 years.
 
uncle goober said:
I wonder, if not aware of hype/available odds/aus championing, would he be so keen to talk down the chances of this mare who has not been less than utterly dominant for well over a year. If she were 16s we would be queueing to help ourselves, bearing in mind the record of scenic blast and others. Now .. Well different hemisphere ... and 6 furlongs... Really?
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Others like Takeover Target, Miss Andretti and Sacred Kingdom - all world class, but none of which lasted home over Ascot's 6f?
 
But Choisir did....

Anyway, stats don't win races. Camelot is not St Nicholas Abbey, and Workforce was not any of the horses that had been beaten in the Dante before running in the Derby.
 
reet hard said:
Others like Takeover Target, Miss Andretti and Sacred Kingdom - all world class, but none of which lasted home over Ascot's 6f?
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But none of those horses mentioned were true genuine 7f horses. Which is what is needed to win a 6f race at Ascot, because of the undulating hills which flower the course.

Sacred Kingdom was best up to 6f. his best effort (running twice) at 7f was a 2nd placing in 2008. The only other time he was raced at the distance was in 2009 when unplaced.

Takeover Target ran the distance several times and captured two wins, best being at Group 3 level in Perth in the Scahil Stakes. Though most would say his best distance was 6f.

Miss Andretti was a dream at 6f and under. She did run the 7f, but won on the provincial circuit around Western Australia to capture that win, a far cry from the moments at Royal Ascot. I think most people would agree she was best at 5f but could go to 6f.
 
uncle goober said:
But Choisir did....
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Choisir ran up to a mile in the previous months before going to Europe though Uncle Gobber, and was 3rd in the Caulfield Guineas.

This is the same race that Starspangledbanner won a few years. Its a mile around a bend at Caulfield, with a slight hill.
 
Steve, you need to watch her races rather than take her ratings at face value. Her cruising speed is incredible and she has earned those ratings being eased down over the final furlong having blown G1 sprinters away without the any movement from the saddle. She is value for considerably more than her ratings.

I have never out and out said this about any horse, but she is the best I have ever seen and by some margin, and an absolute freak.

I'm not an odds-on backer, but I'm am absolutely certain 1/2 is extremely generous, and when whe get on the plane I will make an acception for a very large sum.
 
SteveM said:
See my earlier post where I mention several. But as I've said I'll return on this when I've been through the 57-odd entries in detail. You seem to be missing the point that others will be improving at a relatively quicker rate, when she in all likelihood will not reproduce her best.
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Steve - This horse holds the record for the most 130+ RPR performances in the history of RPR's. She hasn't run below 128 in well over a year and is doing most of this on the bridle. In fact, I can't remember Nolen ever hitting her with the stick. To say that in all likelihood she will not reproduce her best is unfounded imo - The only reason she wouldn't is because of the travelling or if you are Reet's camp and think the stiff 6f will find her out. I'd agree that 1/2 is tight this far in advance but frankly I think its throwing money away if you take her on come the day.

She's comfortably the best sprinter this century and if she travels over ok there will be more than one procession on that Royal saturday.
 
Aragorn said:
She's comfortably the best sprinter this century and if she travels over ok there will be more than one procession on that Royal saturday.
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I beg to differ (and actually think that statement is miles out if you mean the past century rather than the past 12 years). She is very consistent at a high level, but there have been a whole bunch better than her in the past century led by: Abernant, Irish Elegance, Pappa Fourway, Tetratema, Dayjur, Right Boy and Moorestyle.
 
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I meant this century, hence why I wrote "this century". I've only heard of Abernant and Dayjur from that list and they were way before my time!!!

Just to put it in context though - Looking at the world thoroughbred rankings since 2003 Black Caviar is the highest rated sprinter in that time at 132 for 2011. The next best in that period is 123 and only Oasis Dream of the English based sprinters achieved that mark.

Its going to need an aeroplane to scale that mountain - On the Bridle might be able to help though!!! :)
 
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