Black Caviar

Good point for me EC. Just watch and enjoy a champ. Betting almost spoils it (as it can a few races really)
 
I want her to win by as far as possible and believe she will be ridden that way. This is about showing off a real champion despite connections suggesting she won't be extended to win by far.
 
I haven't studied the Australian form but I've seen the clips on C4. She looks very high class. I'm not sure how Australian courses are laid out but the average standard time for the five sharpest 5f courses in the UK is 56.28s (11.256s per furlong). Black Caviar seems to be able to run that time on ground with give without being extended and can run 6f races at the same number of seconds per furlong.

Obviously the ifs are whether she can run to form after all the travelling, etc, but I'll be looking to back the French filly in the market without the favourite.
 
She was value at 6/4, she was value at Evens, she was value at 4/6, she was value at 1/2, she was value at 1/3.

She's probably still value at 1/4. She will very likely go off 1/7 or 1/8.

She has one credible opponent and even she needs to improve half a stone and Black Caviar still needs to run below form.
 
Gamla Stan said:
She was value at 6/4, she was value at Evens, she was value at 4/6, she was value at 1/2, she was value at 1/3.

She's probably still value at 1/4. She will very likely go off 1/7 or 1/8.

She has one credible opponent and even she needs to improve half a stone and Black Caviar still needs to run below form.
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How would you play the distance market?
 
SlimChance said:
The bet is Black Caviar over 3 lengths. She will murder this lot.
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3 or over at 4/6 or over 3.25 at 11/8, later rather than the former for me. Add a bit of 3/1 for 5 or more in hope rather than expectation...
 
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SlimChance said:
How would you play the distance market?
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I'll probably just play her in FCs to be honest.

Pastoral Player be my one to make the frame, hopefully chinning the French filly who under performed at Ascot last year. I wouldn't be rushing to take 6s about her.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't studied the Australian form but I've seen the clips on C4. She looks very high class. I'm not sure how Australian courses are laid out but the average standard time for the five sharpest 5f courses in the UK is 56.28s (11.256s per furlong). Black Caviar seems to be able to run that time on ground with give without being extended and can run 6f races at the same number of seconds per furlong.
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As a general rule of thumb, Australian flat track sprints are run around a couple of seconds faster than ours, and while they have the better sprinters, they're certainly not that much better. For instance, Hay List won a straight 6f race at Flemington (reputedly their biggest course) in 68.2 seconds on g/s, a time unachievable on any similar UK course on anything but proper fast ground.
AFAIA, they don't even have a going description any faster than 'good', which tells its own story.
 
As mentioned I’ve opposed her with three at double-digit prices ante-post: Bated Breath (NR), Moonlight Cloud and Society Rock (wouldn’t put anyone off Krypton Factor at the price either) and am pleased to have done so even though ante-post markets have proved problematic this season in guessing what the going will be in the weeks before these big races (I wasn’t expecting soft going six weeks ago). I’ll look at the markets without the favourite tomorrow to top up in case BC is good enough to win.

While raiders such as Takeover Target, Choisir, etc have proved brilliantly successful in raids on Royal Ascot they have been required to run the races of their lives to achieve it, close to or equalling personal bests and winning narrowly. BC will have to do the same. Maybe she can, but it must be worth opposing her.
 
Maybe they updated the page but it says BC winning distance X euro weekend goals now? The 11/8 for over looks good, but I'd rather be on just over 3.25 at the same price I think.
 
its drying out..its G/S now with only the odd shower forecast..the early races should tell us how much its dried out..stickels said he expects it to be similar to teh first day..which would be quite surprising imo..as it was good ground with no ease then
 
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Ladbrokes don't even want to compete for BC business. They've been an odds-on point shorter all day. 1/7 a few minutes ago when most others were 1/6 or better.
 
I can't have Moonlight Cloud (which must be good news for its backers the form I'm in!), this will be a few notches up from the Champion Sprint at Ascot last year and I think the horse will be run off its feet.

For me the only challenger is Society Rock, drawn near the fav, and if he can't go with her, nothing will.
 
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