The current edition of TB Owner & Breeder mag has a key bloodstock article titled British two-year-old market in decline as supply exceeds demand. (I know, I didn't think it was too snappy, either.) The essence is that while marginally more horses sold than in 2009, the domestic 2 y.o. market declined to its lowest level since 2005, when there were only two, rather than the current four, auctions.
The Guineas and Goffs Kempton auctions were added to the breeze-up calendar in 2007, alongside the longer-established Doncaster and Tattersalls Craven sales, but this year's £14.4m turnover was smaller at the four 2010 events than the £15.7m spent in 2005, when there were two auctions.
There were 124 more juveniles offered this year than in 2006 but only 18 extra sold, as the clearance rate slumped from 87% to 69%. The average price this year was £40,583 compared to £46,525 in 2006. (Just before anyone thinks that's not too bad, remember that all associated costs such as petrol for transport fees, which include vets billing by the mile, too, have risen hugely since '06.)
It begs the question whether there is a need for the additional sales, although with competition between the two big Anglo-Irish sales companies as heated as ever, neither is likely to want to give ground by abandoning one of its new secondary events.
Five lots made 200,000 gns or above this year, compared to 18 in 2008. 36 juveniles made 100,000 gns or over, which compares to 47 two years ago, 32 of which were sold by Irish vendors. One to enjoy notable success was Brendan Holland of Co. Cork-bsed Grove Stud, who sold four 6-figure lots. He would like to see the breeze-up calendar reduced in size. "I thought the Craven and Doncaster held their own, and were stronger than last year, while the Guineas Sale dramatically illustrated the situation of demand not equalling supply," said Holland. "There was a high percentage of horses in the Guineas catalogue which had not been pinhooked and I know the professional guys who breeze full-time would rather see fewer horses overall catalogued to give us a tighter, more vibrant market. In the space of four years we've had Kempton, Dundalk, the Guineas sale and Goresbridge added to the calendar in the same period that demand has decreased. Dundalk has now gone and I could easily see another sale going, although I don't know which one. They've put on the sales to cater for supply, rather than the other way around. Everything went okay for me - there was no real logic to the Craven sale, when the second day was much stronger than the first, but we had three nice horses and benefitted. I was surprised at how competitive it was for the better lots, although there's no doubt that further down, supply way outstrips demand.
But my plan is to pinhook the same number of yearlings and spend the same sort of money to last year. I'm also a fan of the two bonus schemes - that has made a difference to the lower-end breeze-up market. I'd dread to see the clearance rate without it."
There was a sense of deja vu at Doncaster as Malih al-Basti, a leading figure in the Emirates Racing Association, topped trade when buying from Con Marnane's Bansha House Stables. Bidding through vet Adam Driver, al-Basti paid £140,000 for a DUBAWI colt who had cost Marnane just £25,000 at the St Leger sale. A year earlier, the Dubai owner had paid £190,000 for the Doncaster sales topper ANGEL'S PURSUIT, also sold by Marnane.
Sheikh Mohamed has dominated the Guineas sale since it began in 2007 and this year was no exception. He bought the dearest two lots, both sons of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT, for 220,000 gns and 100,000 gns through agent Dick O'Gorman.
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