Breeder's Cup Meeting

Getting more and more excited about it but I don't think it will be the goldmine of last year, nothing really stands out as value.

I do however think Spanish Moon is basically a certainty for the Turf but the 4/1 is probably about right. He has improved and improved this year and I fancied him to run a huge race in the Arc and he should be able to beat his stablemate this year with the break since the Foy.

I like Man Of Iron in the Marathon, he looks the type for the race and seems to be on the upgrade. I don't rate the Leger form at all and he looks a bit big at 9/1.

If they run Gladiatorus on Lasix and he gets a low draw, then I can see him running a huge race from the front and will almost certainly be in the frame or even win it. 14s tempts me.

In the Classic, Rip and Zenyatta are too far apart in the betting and I'll probably have a small e/w bet on her and Summer Bird against Rip as although he's a worthy fav and a top class animal, he's simply too short.

In the Fleeting Spirit debate, I think she's onto a hiding. She got hammered last year and I can only see the same outcome here. Our sprinters are just awful compared to the Yanks and I don't think the course is ideal for her either, think she prefers a straight track.
 
Hamm said:
Zenyetta at 6/1 is like Christmas come early.
Click to expand...

The US odds will be different of course... Jon White, Oak Tree’s new morning line oddsmaker states:

“With the Classic eight days away, such factors as defections, developments, workouts, and post positions could lead to some tweaking. But as it stands right now, I’m planning to make Zenyatta the 5-2 favorite for the Classic, with Rip Van Winkle next at 7-2. For those who believe 5-2 might too low on Zenyatta in such a big field, keep in mind the last time that Zenyatta was higher than 3-5 was about a year and a half ago. That was in the 2008 Apple Blossom Handicap when Zenyatta was 9-5 and beat Ginger Punch.”
“With each grade I win, Summer Bird is getting more and more respect,” White said. “But when Summer Bird won the Jockey Club Gold Cup as the 6-5 favorite, it was the first time he’s ever been the favorite. Right now, I’m planning to put Summer Bird at 9-2 for the Classic.
“The way I see it, Zenyatta, Rip Van Winkle, and Summer Bird are the ‘big three’ in terms of Breeders’ Cup Classic wagering. I think there will be a pretty good gap to the rest. I doubt that I will have anyone else lower than 10-1.”
 
Last edited:
I could see RIP going out to 4/1 + as the money will pour on Zenyatta on the day of the race.

There are many who will bet on her regardless of her odds...keeping the faith I suppose..
 
I was thinking along the same lines - back Zenyatta now over here, and back Rip via the US pools on the night.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Getting more and more excited about it but I don't think it will be the goldmine of last year, nothing really stands out as value.

I do however think Spanish Moon is basically a certainty for the Turf but the 4/1 is probably about right. He has improved and improved this year and I fancied him to run a huge race in the Arc and he should be able to beat his stablemate this year with the break since the Foy.

I like Man Of Iron in the Marathon, he looks the type for the race and seems to be on the upgrade. I don't rate the Leger form at all and he looks a bit big at 9/1.

If they run Gladiatorus on Lasix and he gets a low draw, then I can see him running a huge race from the front and will almost certainly be in the frame or even win it. 14s tempts me.

In the Classic, Rip and Zenyatta are too far apart in the betting and I'll probably have a small e/w bet on her and Summer Bird against Rip as although he's a worthy fav and a top class animal, he's simply too short.

In the Fleeting Spirit debate, I think she's onto a hiding. She got hammered last year and I can only see the same outcome here. Our sprinters are just awful compared to the Yanks and I don't think the course is ideal for her either, think she prefers a straight track.
Click to expand...

I think Man of Iron is still very much on the upgrade after his last win at Dundalk; I wouldn't have much faith in Mastery.

I was a similarly big fan of Spanish Moon throughout the season but he is too short for me; i fancy Conduit as the best short priced favourite. He has been gradually wound up throughout the season, and should still be well enough to win.

Are you going both evenings?
 
I hope to but may have a debate with the other 4 people I'm going with who aren't big racing fans and I'll need the hire car. Now Sweet Hearth has been ruled out I'm not that bothered about the Friday but I've started to back Man Of Iron and I'd like to go both days so hopefully will.

PMU will be interesting for the turf and mile with Europeans dominating the antepost over here.
 
Nothing wrong with having a debate once you get your way :D

Does anyone know if it is possible to watch this online?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I was thinking along the same lines - back Zenyatta now over here, and back Rip via the US pools on the night.
Click to expand...

That must be the most sensible thing to do. One of them ought to win I guess. I'd be quite optimistic of Rip running a big one in this. Must be thereabouts.
 
I think the fields are relatively disappointing.I think Conduit is in a different league to the opposition-if Stoute sends him to America 6/4 is a massive price.I think Beethoven will be suited by the hurly burly of Santa Anita and a solid each way bet at 12s.
 
Had £200 on Zenyatta at 6/1 with Ladbrokes at the end of last week (now 5/1 and as short as 7/2 with Coral).

This frees up to a grand to go into the pools with for Rip and show a profit whichever one wins.

The downside is that is something like Summer Bird does the pair of them.
 
Last edited:
Sound thinking. I have the same worries about Summer Bird (I would have no such doubts if I hadn't planned on being on both Rip and Zenyatta). Anyone a fan?

Is it just me (I am not affording enough respect to some of the American runners?), or are nearly all of the Ballydoyle horses overpriced?

Any ideas which races are likely to produce a swing in the pools, a la the Classic?

Seems like there could be some serious opportunities come Friday and Saturday, in stark contrast to the Arc weekend :mad: :p
 
I love these events when they haven't got a clue how to price up half the runners and you get these parallel opportunities either side.

The Turf Mile tends to be good one for playing both sides against the middle. The Classic looks the obvious one at the moment this year though.

A bit problematic at the moment with changing preferences, etc.
 
Last edited:
Indeed. I remember thinking Christmas had come early the year Shirocco won the Turf - sometimes you think something very obvious isn't being picked up on, and you're reading things the wrong way round, but this meeting is often a potential goldmine.
 
Every year there are gaps in the market you can drive a bus through. Trust your own judgement and you shouldn't go far wrong (there is just so much slack).
 
Hamm said:
Seems like there could be some serious opportunities come Friday and Saturday, in stark contrast to the Arc weekend :mad: :p
Click to expand...

...that's brought me back down to earth.:( (a place bet on Fame seemed impossible not to return at the time.)
 
Steve - it happens everytime someone tries something new, ie. the Breeders Cup, Hong Kong, Dubai, South Africa and probably the Bluesq markets on the Cup undercard tonight.

There's at least 4 or 5 really good BC bets without even researching.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Steve - it happens everytime someone tries something new, ie. the Breeders Cup, Hong Kong, Dubai, South Africa and probably the Bluesq markets on the Cup undercard tonight.

There's at least 4 or 5 really good BC bets without even researching.
Click to expand...

After a quarter of a century you'd have thought they would have some clue, but the chances are still there to tempt us.
 
Having read the comments being made by Mike Smith and connections about Zenyatta I still don't think it's cut and dried she'll definitely run. They are definitely in a quandry about this record.
 
Aragorn said:
Having read the comments being made by Mike Smith and connections about Zenyatta I still don't think it's cut and dried she'll definitely run. They are definitely in a quandry about this record.
Click to expand...

True... but in these situations I always ask myself what I would do. What does winning the Fillies/Mares version add to her status? Not much I'd suggest. She has a favourite's or near favourite's chance in the Classic. They would be forever kicking themselves if she went for the lesser race and won it well.

She does of course have first preference for the Classic (although I suppose that could change)
 
Last edited:

Upbeat report:

Jay Privman, Daily Racing Form

INGLEWOOD, Calif. – Zenyatta in her final work for next Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic, turned in a flawless six-furlong work in 1:12.40 on Saturday morning at Hollywood Park with her regular jockey, Mike Smith, aboard.

Zenyatta worked in company with her Jon Shirrefs-trained stablemate Green Cat. They began the work at the 5 1/2-furlong pole with Zenyatta starting about three lengths behind. Zenyatta gradually crept closer on the turn, then drew away through the stretch and finished five lengths in front.

Russell Hudak, the official clocker at Hollywood Park, timed Zenyatta in fractions of 24.60 seconds, 36.60, 48.40, and 1:00.20.

Hudak timed her galloping out seven furlongs in 1:25.20.

 
Ladbrokes have cut her further for the Classic (to 4/1). Only quoted in one place for the fillies/mares race.

Trainer not concerned about her taking on the trip:

"Not only will Zenyatta meet males for the first time if she competes in the Classic, she will be going 1 1/4 miles, a distance she has never attempted before. Shirreffs is not concerned with the added real estate.

“It’s not an issue at all,” the trainer said. “If she was shortening her stride at any time, it might be an issue. But she seems to continually lengthen her stride.”
 
Last edited:
Back
Top