Breeder's Cup

Any links to good sites on the effect of the draw here? I note that 4/1 is best price in the bookies, but he has an ML price of 10/1. If I knew I could get 6/1 or better on US odds, I think that would compensate for the poor draw.

I think Goldikova is past it, and Gio Ponti would be my main danger, with minor shouts for Courageous Cat, Byword and Zoffany in that order.
 
Thanks for that, IS. I didn't get where I am today by backing turf horses on a dirt surface first time out in the white heat of Breeder's Cup battle.

In spite of the fact that I am a big SYT fan, I am prepared to swerve him in this and go for the proven form on the surface.

I might do a few fancy combinations with Flat Out, Drosselmeyer and HDG.
 
Knowing where to have your bet is half the battle. I still gloat over the 13/1 r
Raven's Pass retuned in the US pool as opposed to 8/1 industry SP.
 
Appetite is certainly whetted now, looking forward to a great evening on Sat. Slight lack of superstars this year (Goldikova & Uncle Mo aside) and a definite feeling that there could be some big prices winning and hitting the frame. Will be throwing a few dollars across the board on some big priced runners and hopefully cheering on a few European winners.
Shumoos, Questing and Daddy Long Legs are certainly bred for the job and I expect the latter two especially to improve significantly for the switch to dirt. They can both race quite prominently and stay well which is what you need for dirt. Not sure they've been done any favours by the draw but nice prices on the US Pools should compensate for that.
Goldikova looks like a banker but as has been discussed in depth she may not quite be the force of old. I'll be playing Courageous Cat across the board as he's been primed for this race by the genius that is Bill Mott and he has already finished 2nd to Goldi in this race at Santa Anita in 2009. Plum draw in three for a prominent racer so am hoping for a big run. Also sticking with Mott for the Classic. Uncle Mo a big doubt to stay the trip and you can be sure they will go a serious lick from the gates to test his suspect stamina. Someone will be closing fast and late to pick up the pieces so step forward last year's Belmont winner (1 1/2 miles) Drosselmeyer, coming off a nice runner up finish last time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to set him up perfectly for the big one. He's reportedly been working very nicely on the track and I've taken the 25/1 ew so if he hits the frame I'll be happy.
 
I think there is a rick tomorrow night in the F&M Turf.

Misty for Me is 9/1. She is twice the price of Nahrain and Announce, who she holds on form. I firmly believe that Opera was about as bad a renewal as I've seen, and Banimipire, who whilst very admirable, has been on a slight downward curve since the Irish Oaks, and was only beaten a little over a length. Misty for Me should be half the price of these two, not the other way round.

Her Irish Guineas and Pretty Polly are both strong form, and entitle her to near challenge for favouritism. She disappointed slightly in the Matron, but her 2 runs above show her better than that.

9/1 1/4 odds with Coral is huge.
 
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Hamm said:
I think there is a rick tomorrow night in the F&M Turf.

Misty for Me is 9/1. She is twice the price of Nahrain and Announce, who she holds on form. I firmly believe that Opera was about as bad a renewal as I've seen, and Banimipire, who whilst very admirable, has been on a slight downward curve since the Irish Oaks, and was only beaten a little over a length. Misty for Me should be half the price of these two, not the other way round.

Her Irish Guineas and Pretty Polly are both strong form, and entitle her to near challenge for favouritism. She disappointed slightly in the Matron, but her 2 runs above show her better than that.

9/1 1/4 odds with Coral is huge.
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I was actually thinking the same. There's not a lot I'd fancy backing in the BC, but Misty at that sort of price is worth a look. Maybe bigger on the US pool.

I was half thinking about a bet on Byword in the Mile and possibly Midday (or Sea Moon) in her race.
 
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Turf is now yielding - we had one heavy pour down of a shower here this morning to the point they closed the turf track for exercise which caused up roar among the Euro trainers who had intended to work horses on there this morning (Stoute and Hannon in particular)

Today's scratches -
Medaglia D'Amour (Ladie's Classic)
Tequila Factor (Juv Turf)
 
Miesque said:
Turf is now yielding - we had one heavy pour down of a shower here this morning to the point they closed the turf track for exercise which caused up roar among the Euro trainers who had intended to work horses on there this morning (Stoute and Hannon in particular)
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I was reading about this. It's caused a bit of an upset. I understand officials will waive a requirement for Sea Moon to provide a clocked work time due to him not running in the past 30 days.
 
SteveM said:
I was reading about this. It's caused a bit of an upset. I understand officials will waive a requirement for Sea Moon to provide a clocked work time due to him not running in the past 30 days.
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They really have little choice but to waive it - Euro horses, due to quarantine aren't allowed on the track early in the morning and everyone knew we were forecast this rain...why not change the schedule?
 
Didn’t the BC authorities decide to put water on at the last minute last year and didn’t a couple of horses slip up because of it? I can understand why they might want to be cautious about the ground being unsafe this time. Was this downpour particularly heavy?

The Turf track is inside the Dirt track isn't it? The turns must be tight. Any experience that our horses can get beforehand of the track itself is of course invaluable.
 
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Any actual tips on what I should be looking for, trainers, draw, jockeys?

Looking to have a bet tonight at Churchtown, maybe find a few winners!

What does Sloppy mean?
 
Sloppy means that due to the rain, they "seal" the track - i.e. hard roll it so that the expected rain sits on top of it. It pretty much has the effect of producing firm ground underneath and then the water sits on top so the horses look like they are galloping through chocolate soup. Quite a few horses don't like this!!!
 
Sealing the track is something they do after some rain and with more heavy rain forecast. By sealing it you essentially squeeze out some of the moisture that has gotten into the dirt, but you also make it hard packed, the idea being to get any more water to sheet and run off so it doesn't penetrate all the way down to the base and become a complete mudhole.

A sloppy track can be pretty damn fast. With just the right amount of moisture the track becomes pretty fast, like the part of the beach where the tide has just gone out and is still fairly wet. If you run on that part of the beach you will notice that it is much firmer underfoot than the drier parts of the beach where the sand gives way under your foot and hence is the drier stuff is more tiring.

Depending on how fast it dries out and how it is harrowed and worked as it dries, the conditions of the track can change fairly rapidly.
 
Just watched the first, it is FAST out there but very wet. Not sure how the sloppy kickback is going to affect the Euro raiders. Trying load a photo of the track now...
 
Tons of speed in the first of the BC races Miesque but on a speed favouring track (fav in the first scooted clear) too - had been favouring Shumoos as just about the only hold up horse in the race so in two minds now.

Only proper bet of the card is Miss Netta in the Juvenile Fillies, missed the break last time out but finished like a train, albeit in being beaten 9 lengths. That was just her second start and if she can get away on something like level terms then she's a cracking bet, also worth noting that she beat rival today Stopshoppingmaria on her debut at Saratoga over 5.5f and she should handle the sloppy track. 12/1 looks a good E/W bet.

Martin
 
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