I really think the old course will suit Grandouet down to the ground. The shorter run in up the straight will work in his favour compared to previous encounters with Zarkander run over the New course which, in my opinion, has played to Zarkander's strength of stamina.
I think you're sort of right Danny in the sense that Zarkandar enjoys a test of stamina but I wouldn't put either defeat down to the lack of with Grandouet.
Grandouet in his first season was very much like Sprinter Sacre: a bit gangly and too immature and weak to handle Cheltenham. The similarity between Al Ferof V Sprinter Sacre and Zarkander V Grandouet was uncanny. Both the Henderson horses quickened approaching 2 out looking all over the winners. The PN horses were under sever pressure unable to go with them and looking well beat then the Henderon duo stopped like shot between the turn for home. and the last hurdle allowing the PN horses to get back on terms and go on to win.
Zarkandar ran the same sort of race behind Rock On Ruby only unlike weak novices they don't stop in the Champion Hurdle. Probably the strongest finisher last year the lack of ability to quicken with the leaders when the pace suddenly quickened played a huge part in his defeat.
Well aware of his short comings,when he ran in the International Hurdle Ruby immediately went to the front and set the pace and rode a tactically brilliant race. Rock on Ruby wasn't anywhere near as fit as he was back in March. He was going a bit better than Zarkandar approaching the 2nd last with Grandouet cantering in behind but no great injection of pace came. He did quicken and although Ruby was the first under pressure within a few strides he was back on terms and Rock on Ruby simply folded through lack of fitness.
Grandouet despite traveling best of the 3 lost a couple of lengths approaching the 2nd last but Barry just sat there with good reason. It had all the hallmarks of a horse who had blown up after the 2nd last and his jockey wanted to get a second wind into him. Barry did make and effort to catch Zarkandar but his lack of race fitness and the concession of 4 lbs proved too much.
The problem Zarkandar faces at Cheltenham in March is he's probably nowhere near quick enough to make the running and even if he lies up with the pace he'll still struggle to go with them when the pace quickens from 3 out. Armed with that information though I could see his jockey getting after him very early and keeping any deficit to a minimum and he'd be a big danger if they can but they might have to find another AP MCCoy for him to actually win.
It's Grandouet's exceptionally high cruising speed that I reckon will win the day. In just about every Champion Hurdle ever run when the jump the 3rd last there's that sudden injection of pace and he's the least likely to be affected by it. Both Hurricane Fly and Binocular had the sting taken out of there tails last season by Rock on Ruby and while Hurricane Fly may not have been at his best he's not going to find it easy now he's 2 years older than when he last won it.
Grandouet on the other hand is a much stronger individual than he was 2 years ago and I doubt if there's a horse with a higher cruising speed than him in training bar 1. Last year he cut down one of the fastest front runners around in Overturn like he was a tree and I can't see anyway he won't be bang there cantering at the last then it's in the lap of the Gods.
Due to a massive over reaction, by the bookies, to Hurricane Fly's facile victory over Binocular who wasn't off a yard I decided to Green up for a decent profit on him. Leaving Grandouet as my only remaining bet.
I have up until recently believed Hurricane Fly was the main danger to Grandouet and I can still see him being there at the finish but the first 3 in the International I reckon all have a more than fair chance of beating him.
People were very quick to say fluke when Rock on Ruby won last year and him moving to Harry Fry from PN has enhanced their view.
The truth is as most of us know Harry Fry has always trained the horse and PN was more confident about Zarkander winning than he was Rock On Ruby most likely because he hardly ever seen the horse.
My view has changed somewhat recently and I think Hurricane Fly may have too steep a mountain to climb to reverse placing with him. Harry Fry gives the impression he couldn't care less if he never won a thing between now and March as long as he has him spot on when it matters.
Watching him again and the way he flew up the hill he has to be the one they all have to beat. He's year older and a year stronger now and Hurricane Fly is going to have to find 6 lengths to beat him....Not quite right or not last season that's a massive task by anyone's standards.
If Barry can steal a couple of lengths off Rock on Ruby approaching the last I think he'll win but I woudn't be so confident if Rock on Ruby had a couple of lengths start over the last on him.
The way I see it.
1. Grandouet
2. Rock On Ruby,
and a close thing between Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar for 3rd. with Darlan and Binocular having their own little private race some 3 or 4 lengths behind them.
Slim hates my essays so just for him.......Back Grandouet and Rock on Ruby against the field 
You'd have to think he'd beat the old horse quite easily.....................................maybe :lol:
