Champion Hurdle 2014

I wouldn't be as confident as Suny that it will be unplaced but I can think of four in the race who, all other things being equal, have a very good chance of finishing in front of it at the weights.

But I think I did say before that I went low with this year's Champion Hurdle (borne out so far by The New One's performance at Aintree).
 
interesting race...both Cockney Sparrow & Cotton Mill have big weight pulls with MTOY. throw in improving Clever Cookie and a back to form Court Minstrel ...Montbason has decent form when viewed off this sort of mark...makes MTOY's price look totally wrong imo.

MTOY is one of the lays of the year at odds on imo
 
MTOY is a massively talented horse who's never run to his full potential owing to his propensity to pull for his head in the early stages. That's cost him dear at the festival when he twice hasn't lasted home up the stiff Cheltenham finish, otherwise he'd be a Supreme and CH winner, and long odds-on for this on the same terms.
He's a speed horse, running on a track that will suit him much better, and meeting all but 2 of his rivals on more advantageous terms than he should. Those alone should see him home, but if the special bit, hood etc work the oracle, then I genuinely believe we'll see something special.
 
There's nothing good enough running to worry him out of it. I still think MTOY's stomach for a scrap might be questionable......just not at this level.
 
Cotton Mill each-way is the bet for me with savers on Montbazon and Court Minstrel but I won’t mind at all if the favourite wins.
 
If the hood works he will win half the length of the track . If it doesn't he should still be far too good for them .
 
Even if the hood works, he might struggle. He's giving weight to horses who bring the top handicap form to the race.

Last week at Aintree Lac Fontana and Whisper, not to mention Pineau De Re, gave as strong an endorsement of festival handicap hurdle form as you can get. Earlier in the week, Holywell and ma Filleule did likewise with the chase form.

This is no stroll by the seaside for MTOY.
 
I agree DH and the horses supreme form just behind Cinders + Ashes and Darlan. The horse has improved with each run since his layoff and should improve again.


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Double Handful said:
Surely the Lac Fontana form gives Montbazon a fair chance.......
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Yes, and I think Montbazon is better than the bare result. He came back from a year off to run midfield in the Betfair at Newbury as a prep for Cheltenham but he went too soon there after being rushed through the pack on the run downhill (passed about eight horses) and then kicking on off the turn. He stayed on well up the hill but I suspect if he'd been less profligate with his energy half a mile earlier he might have held on for the win and would be higher in the weights here.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
But I think I did say before that I went low with this year's Champion Hurdle (borne out so far by The New One's performance at Aintree).
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You are right. The third winning a grade 1 nto shows just how dreadful and awful a Champion Hurdle it was... :rolleyes:
 
MTOY by as much as he wants to win by. Simple as

The 6/4 earlier this week is an early Christmas present
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Cotton Mill each-way is the bet for me with savers on Montbazon and Court Minstrel but I won’t mind at all if the favourite wins.
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How I see it too. Could not split the first two for each way opportunities, but obviously Cotton Mill is a bigger price.
 
MTOY isn't a 168 horse imo. ran virtually same race as Overturn did in this..he isn't a CH winner in the future either imo...as Overturn wasn't
 
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EC1 said:
MTOY isn't a 168 horse imo. ran virtually same race as Overturn did in this..he isn't a CH winner in the future either imo...as Overturn wasn't
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He obviously is as he ran close to that rating. He would have needed to be a better than 168 horse to win, he didn't put in a performance better than that but you can generally say a horse who ran a close 3rd ran to his rating.
 
EC1 said:
MTOY isn't a 168 horse imo.
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Another nail in the coffin for this year's Champion form. What would Our Conor have done to them :(

Very disappointed with Montbazon and Cotton Mill there but at least I thought Court Minstrel was going to cover me. I must say I never considered Cockney Sparrow a serious danger today but it does look like the claim has made a difference.
 
he's a CH 3rd 4th in an average year horse imo Hamm..wouldn't have placed in this years had OC completed and not taken TNO out of the race

i'd say MTOY is 163/164 horse tops
 
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