Champion Hurdle 2014

sunybay said:
MTOY very good run
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Aye, 3l in front of a horse 9lb wrong at the weights. :lol:
Disappointing run, his worst for quite a while, and probably the last chance saloon for a hurdling career.
Probably served its purpose though, as they won't waste time next season before putting him over fences. Arkle winner written all over him.
 
reet hard said:
Aye, 3l in front of a horse 9lb wrong at the weights. :lol:
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I reckon he's run his race almost to the ounce - at least on my own ratings - or arguably slightly better.

My figures said:
  • He'd struggle at the weights. He struggled.
  • Court Minstrel should finish four lengths in front of him. It was less than two but maybe if Wedge had made his move earlier it would have been more.
  • He should finish four lengths in front of Cockney Sparrow but I wasn't taking Pratt's allowance into account. I don't normally so you could argue that MTOY has run below form but it would mean all the others have too.
  • He should finish six lengths in front of Swing Bowler. Mikey Ennis's 7lbs claim appears to have halved that.
  • He should finish 5 lengths in front of Ifandbutwhynot. It was 7.

Those who thought this was a lap of honour for the favourite were wildly optimistic from the outset. He has run pretty close to form and the form of the Champion Hurdle is moderate.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I reckon he's run his race almost to the ounce - at least on my own ratings - or arguably slightly better.

My figures said:
  • He'd struggle at the weights. He struggled.
  • Court Minstrel should finish four lengths in front of him. It was less than two but maybe if Wedge had made his move earlier it would have been more.
  • He should finish four lengths in front of Cockney Sparrow but I wasn't taking Pratt's allowance into account. I don't normally so you could argue that MTOY has run below form but it would mean all the others have too.
  • He should finish six lengths in front of Swing Bowler. Mikey Ennis's 7lbs claim appears to have halved that.
  • He should finish 5 lengths in front of Ifandbutwhynot. It was 7.

Those who thought this was a lap of honour for the favourite were wildly optimistic from the outset. He has run pretty close to form and the form of the Champion Hurdle is moderate.
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the CH form is below average because the winner & 2nd should have been 3rd & 4th in it
 
Grasshopper said:
On all form evidence......nothing.
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depends how you look at it...Flaxen Flare is a consistent marker...OC beat him a comfy 26 lengths..could have been 30+ if extended?

if you gave OC the same weight as MTOY today..then he would have beat FF by 12+ lengths today...which would mean OC would have just about won today..in the process beating MTOY about 4 lengths

4 lengths better than MTOY makes OC the winner of the Champion Hurdle...and also confirms the distance OC beat Jezki in the Irish CH....would be similar to how far he would have beat him at Cheltenham
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Last week at Aintree Lac Fontana and Whisper, not to mention Pineau De Re, gave as strong an endorsement of festival handicap hurdle form as you can get.
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Trustan Times one of those in the 4-way photo for the Pertemps ran a terrific race in the Scottish National today.
 
EC1 said:
depends how you look at it..

4 lengths better than MTOY makes OC the winner of the Champion Hurdle...and also confirms the distance OC beat Jezki in the Irish CH....would be similar to how far he would have beat him at Cheltenham
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Aye, if you ignore the 13lbs (RPR) that Jezki improved from one race to t'other. :)
 
Straw-man bollocks any theorising around OC, based on performances against juveniles. Would have been about as good as Jezki, based on everything we know from his runs in open company - any bigging him up beyond that is based on utter guesswork and/or pocket-talk.
 
Grasshopper said:
Straw-man bollocks any theorising around OC, based on performances against juveniles. Would have been about as good as Jezki, based on everything we know from his runs in open company - any bigging him up beyond that is based on utter guesswork and/or pocket-talk.
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all 3rd party based ratings are straw men arguments,,its how the handicapping system works
 
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I'm never too wound up about post Cheltenham performances. I won't draw a line through them but wouldn't hang hat on them either
 
EC1 said:
depends how you look at it...Flaxen Flare is a consistent marker...OC beat him a comfy 26 lengths..could have been 30+ if extended?

if you gave OC the same weight as MTOY today..then he would have beat FF by 12+ lengths today...which would mean OC would have just about won today..in the process beating MTOY about 4 lengths

4 lengths better than MTOY makes OC the winner of the Champion Hurdle...and also confirms the distance OC beat Jezki in the Irish CH....would be similar to how far he would have beat him at Cheltenham
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So what happens when you drop hurricane fly into this argument?

Pretty well fcks it all up I think
 
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clivex said:
So what happens when you drop hurricane fly into this argument?

Pretty well fcks it all up I think
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how so?

HF has run his best form this season away from Cheltenham and with give in the ground..he wasn't at his best in the CH..and imo would not have lived with OC there...and neither would Jezki
 
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tiggers1972 said:
Agree Clive, also OC never won another race after the Triumph.
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I seem to remember everyone writing off Jezki coz he got beat a few before the CH...you seem to suggest horses have to win all their trial races to be really good

not seeing either of you's argument tbh..whats winning races before a target got to do with anything?
 
You've gone on the reading of the form that suits you.

for example ...using a handicapper.... flaxen flare to form opinions on Grade1's is a minefield, especially as flaxen flare is trained by Elliot who likes to run a few that are chucked in to say the least.
 
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Because you are hanging the form on the Irish ch. I am nit convinced that hf is inconvenienced by the ground and course to such an extent anyway

I totally use collateral from myself because it is all we have a lot of the time, but this is all a bit literal, especially taking on board novice form

Also I just don't believe mtoy was at his best today. Hardly surprising though and wouldmt ave expetced it.Certainly didnt travel as well at end of race and using that to prove oc would have beaten him is not for me.
 
tiggers1972 said:
You've gone on the reading of the form that suits you.

for example ...using a handicapper.... flaxen flare to form opinions on Grade1's is a minefield, especially as flaxen flare is trained by Elliot who likes to run a few that are chucked in to say the least.
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how does it suit me?..odd comment....i just read the form...it tells me that MTOY isn't a Champion Hurdle horse..and he won't be next year either

Flaxen Flare was also beaten 20 odd lengths by Diakali..who nearly ran TNO down..interesting that two horses that beat him so easily seem rather good.

what difference does it make if its a "handicapper"..whatever that means...every horse in training is a handicapper..they all have marks...its just how you are looking at horses that makes you think lower rated handicappers are somehow unreliable as markers...many horses that run in Group/Graded races are crap markers
 
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reading through the last two pages of this thread...to say that i read form oddly and incorrectly..it seems like it works pretty well..i made MTOY one of the lays of the season...others who are deemed good judges thought him a cert

yet my analysis gets ripped...funny old game really;)
 
Be honest now. He was hardly a million miles way from being a disasterous "lay of the season" was he?

I didnt back him and didnt think he would confirm xmas form with TNO but like most here, i could hardly write him off.
 
OK EC!.
Our Connor dicked twice by HF this season.........correct...no?
MTOY finished in a different parish to HF in the Champion.

So where is the logic about OC?
 
tiggers1972 said:
OK EC!.
Our Connor dicked twice by HF this season.........correct...no?
MTOY finished in a different parish to HF in the Champion.

So where is the logic about OC?
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where is your logic though?..

Jezki..dicked by HF twice...correct?

and yet Jezki beat HF at Cheltenham...so why wouldn't OC have done the same.?

FF shows he was well able..at his best..to beat Jezki..irrelevant of the Irish CH form
 
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