Champion Hurdle 2014

Considering Our Conor was fit enough to win his 2nd & 3rd race on the flat and his first 3 over hurdles, it takes an almighty leap of faith to believe he needed 3 prep runs to get him fit for the Champion Hurdle. If RPR's are to be believed he actually went backwards from the RyanAir to the Irish CH.
 
Because RPRs rated both races via CCB. If you're going to rate a race via one horse you need to pick the right one and make sure you have its rating pretty accurate.
 
reet hard said:
Considering Our Conor was fit enough to win his 2nd & 3rd race on the flat and his first 3 over hurdles, it takes an almighty leap of faith to believe he needed 3 prep runs to get him fit for the Champion Hurdle.
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It doesn't mean he needed the runs, though. It just means they had him at a certain stage of readiness that suited their long term plans. I reckon if they were really targeting the race we'd have seen a much different animal but we'll never know.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It doesn't mean he needed the runs, though. It just means they had him at a certain stage of readiness that suited their long term plans. I reckon if they were really targeting the race we'd have seen a much different animal but we'll never know.
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So Jezki and The Fly were highly tuned for the Irish Champion, but weren't really concerned about winning the big one? :)
We all rationialise somewhat to suit our own standpoint, DO, but some of the stuff on this thread lacks any semblance of objectivity.
Fwiw, my view is that MTOY ran below his best yesterday, and I'd expect most major ratings to endorse it.
 
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reet hard said:
So Jezki and The Fly were highly tuned for the Irish Champion, but weren't really concerned about winning the big one? :)
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The Fly was almost certainly as close to 100% as they wanted him. His agenda for the season was to pick up all the Grade 1s and see how he got on at Cheltenham. Jezki was almost certainly close to peak fitness as they weren't sure how good he was and needed to know if the Champion was the right race for him. He might not have been as close to 100% as the Fly but they would have wanted to know where they stood in relation to MTOY based on his form over here. McManus said after the race his own season was all about the Champion Hurdle as they didn't think they had either a Gold Cup horse or a Grand National one this season [turned out Double Seven wasn't that far away] but they had two arrows to fire at the Champion.

reet hard said:
We all rationialise somewhat to suit our own standpoint, DO, but some of the stuff on this thread lacks any semblance of objectivity.
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Some of us more than others. You won't often see me express a strong opinion without either saying to what an extent it is simply opinion or backing it up with facts and/or figures. The more facts and/or figures I have at my disposal the more strongly I tend to voice my opinion. If I'm not so sure I tend to keep quiet (which is why you won't see me comment at all on certain threads).

I can see that my support for Our Conor doesn't have as much in the way of facts and figures as usual but that's because I saw enough in that one performance [in the Triumph] to anticipate the kind of programme his connections would map out for him. He was very good leading up to the Triumph but he was another creature altogether in the race. This season he was, in the big scheme of things, very good in his two races. I was expecting to see the other creature in the Champion. I still suspect we might have done had tragedy not intervened.


reet hard said:
Fwiw, my view is that MTOY ran below his best yesterday, and I'd expect most major ratings to endorse it.
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Obviously anyone who backed or expected it to win on Saturday will believe MTOY ran below his best. As for the major ratings, if they went into the 170s for Cheltenham, as RPRs did, then of course they will be disappointed. I don't have access to Timeform ratings for Saturday but I thought I read somewhere they went high 160s. That won't mean a lot unless we know how they rated the others. I said before the race the big handicap form was being franked all over the shop and MTOY was only 5th top of a field of 11. Hence my assertion that he'd really have to improve for the application of the hood. Was I wrong or was that just the end result of a string of guesses going back a season?

I'm always checking back to see if I should be tweaking past figures for certain races up or down. If you think your original figures are always going to be right you're either a genius or downright stubborn. I don't consider myself either. Getting as many right as possible in the long-term is my objective.

There were some figures out last week [before Aintree] to support the assertion that the top Cheltenham form could be followed. Events proved they were accurate with horses like Uxizandre, Guitar Pete, The New One, Josses Hill/Sgt Reckless, Holywell, Ma Filleule, Lac Fontana and Whisper backing up good runs there with good ones at Aintree. MTOY had an extra week to prepare. He should have been able to run his race and I am arguing it may well be the case that he did. He did on my figures. It seems he also did on EC1's. Sunybay had him as a place lay (I wasn't so brave).

I predict that at some point over the next six-eight months we'll see RPRs for the Champion Hurdle being revised downwards.

[But not to worry - the BHA had the chance to interview me for the job of handicapper a number of years ago. They didn't. Instead they gave it to Julian Muscat...]
 
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Would have been somewhat surprising if he hadn't been

Mtoy without doubt did not run as well as he could yesterday. Pulling like that he couldn't have done so. No way.For instance at Xmas he settled and travelled far better. And regardless of that, it would be somewhat surprising if mtoy was at the same peak as march.personally i always factor a few lbs off a post Cheltenham run.

Can fiddle around with ratings all day long, but that was not him at his best
 
If he was campaigned to be at his best in the Morgiana (workmanlike in beating Marito), Christmas, and Irish Champion, I think it would have been more likely to see Un de Sceaux or Annie Power in the race.

I've seen nothing to suggest that Mullins wasn't targetting the race specifically. Its hardly an unusual path to take to the race, and on no occasion didn't he look bursting out of skin with brilliance, ready to run for his life. If anything, this year has taught us he has got old that those very brilliant days are behind him.
 
He was injured slightly just before the Irish Champion and did a terrible piece of work in the leadup.

After the Christmas race, here is what Mullins said: "He is coming on and improving all the time, and that race will bring him on a good bit."
 
HawkWing said:
Was this stated by connections? If not, I'm adding it to "making something up to suit my conclusion" pile.
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Yes. It was either an interview with Ruby Walsh or Willie Mullins. Something along the lines of: 'the plan for this year will be the same for last year - the [named Irish Grade 1s] and then we'll see about Cheltenham. He came back to win it last year so there's no reason why he shouldn't have a big chance again'
 
its making me laugh how DO is being accused of making it up to suit his argument...when the only people in denial and making it up are those that probably backed MTOY first at Cheltenham then again at daft odds at Ayr..and will probably still be making excuses for his runs this time next year

DO has been proved right...the CH form isn't that hot

i've found when i get it wrong..to accept it and move on..owt else is pocket talking excuses imo
 
I'm used to it, EC1. It's just a tad disappointing that those who have a different opinion never back it up with figures and/or facts. It's more often than not a case of 'Well I don't think it ran to form so you must be wrong.'

No point in my adding any more until something else comes out and shows the form up for better or worse.
 
EC1 said:
its making me laugh how DO is being accused of making it up to suit his argument...when the only people in denial and making it up are those that probably backed MTOY first at Cheltenham then again at daft odds at Ayr..and will probably still be making excuses for his runs this time next year

DO has been proved right...the CH form isn't that hot

i've found when i get it wrong..to accept it and move on..owt else is pocket talking excuses imo
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i backed him in neither. as i stated last week i was surprised many found him backable at 11/10. to do so is to almost suggest the handicapping system doesn't work.

either way i wouldn't read too much into a race like saturday, at the end of a long season, nor do I think it was a run i'd be too down on him for. There's two very obvious problems. He runs too keen and he doesn't hurdle fluently. Maybe going chasing would fix at least the latter problem and he'd have more respect for a fence, not sure how they fix the former though. Hope he matures?

If they can I firmly believe he's better than a 163/4 horse. The talent is there to win big prizes imo.
 
EC1 said:
its making me laugh how DO is being accused of making it up to suit his argument...when the only people in denial and making it up are those that probably backed MTOY first at Cheltenham then again at daft odds at Ayr..and will probably still be making excuses for his runs this time next year

DO has been proved right...the CH form isn't that hot

i've found when i get it wrong..to accept it and move on..owt else is pocket talking excuses imo
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Hang on a cotton picken minute. I didn't have a bet and I agree that the champion hurdle is up to much cop. The most interesting question for me is who mccoy would choose for next year. Be that as it may, the idea that hurricane fly was trained to peak at any other time than march requires evidence as it is contrary to all common sense and everything about mullins and nh racing in general. This of course is thrown out as the reason why our conor WOULD definitely have won the champion hurdle if he stood up. He didn't repeat his triumph run in any subsequent races, but definitely WOULD had he stood up. Not buying it.
 
Precisely, HW, in much the same way that Our Conor wouldn't have needed a pipe opener on the flat, were he being trained specifically for a race 5 months away.
While we're on the subject of pocket talk, EC (I backed MTOY Saturday, but not at Cheltenham) you aren't doing a bad job yourself in defending a horse you promoted as having the world at his feet, yet was beaten twice by a horse himself beaten by both Jezki and MTOY subsequently.
 
What's funny is that no oneis denying our conor COULD have won if he ran to his triumph form and if he improved from 4 to 5. Its a long leap to that he say that he was in the process of doing so when falling. To me jezki never ran better or smoother or looked more ideally suited to a grade 1 field, pace, conditions than in the champion. He improved for it. Maybe twas the jockey.

Its probable that our conor needed to improve as much from his irish races this winter. Anyone saying that he is the moral winner needs to have more concrete evidence than Hurricane Fly was aiming for the Irish Champion while Our Conor was aimingv for cheltenham.
 
reet hard said:
Precisely, HW, in much the same way that Our Conor wouldn't have needed a pipe opener on the flat, were he being trained specifically for a race 5 months away.
While we're on the subject of pocket talk, EC (I backed MTOY Saturday, but not at Cheltenham) you aren't doing a bad job yourself in defending a horse you promoted as having the world at his feet, yet was beaten twice by a horse himself beaten by both Jezki and MTOY subsequently.
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i haven't said OC would definitely have won the CH..but the form says he must have had a good chance..check out Diakali..just beat by TNO..rated as a superhorse himself early this season on this forum by some...OC beat Diaklali easily....twice

not getting your last sentence by the way;)...which horse?

anyway..i'll just point out..the xmas hurdle and Fighting fifth still not produced the CH winner:)
 
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if i'm reading it right you mean HF

so you think HF ran to his best at Cheltenham i assume to count MTOY beating him there having any worth.

if that was HF's best form then why isn't Jezki 1.20 to beat him at Punchestown?
 
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