Champion Hurdle 2014

Thanks for that DJ but this must be one of the silliest comments I have read in a long time:

But Champagne Fever pulled out more to prevail in what looks the hottest Supreme Novices' in recent history.
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Err, wasn't there a Supreme only 2 years back with a finishing order of:
1. Al Ferof
2. Spirit Son
3. Sprinter Sacre
4. Cue Card
 
Hamm

How much hindsight goes into the assessment of what those 4 achieved? I think the comments hold true in the context of what those horse achieved in the Supreme on the day. But my niche isn't jumps, so happy to be proven wrong on that.

Perhaps the author might have been better saying 'one of the hottest'!
 
But any Supreme can only be analysed in the way (hindsight with regard to previous years, hypothesis of current year) I have, no?

Obviously you are always hypothesising about the current year, but while i do think it is a very hot renewal, the time hardly backs it up, and only 2 of the first 4 have subsequently franked the form.
 
DJ

Turftrax sectionals.
CH
7.12 43.30 42.91 24.01 20.77 37.10 17.43 27.3415.79 Time 3m 59.35
SUP
6.80 41.92 45.05 24.38 21.35 37.65 17.17 25.41 13.75 Time 3m 55.6

By my calculation, the CH was run 3.75 secs slower, all but 0.18 secs of the difference in the last 2 sections.
 
Thanks Reet

I don't know for a fact, but I wonder if the different interpretation comes from a disagreement of when the race starts. Some analysts take the start of the race as when the tapes go up, Timeform have, for as long as I've known, waited until the leader has passed the starting line. This way it prevents direct comparisons being meaningless if the field stand still, or walk in from well behind the tape.
 
To be fair, BTB, the sectionals I posted were those of the winners (Turftrax don't give figures for the leaders), though Hurricane Fly was never that much behind the pace.
 
Trotting out sectionals is nothing more than harbour-side chatter amongst toothless croans in shawls.

Shut your f*cking holes.

That is all.

:cool:
 
have some more :lol:

i'm not getting into this again but i'm happy to put up the individual timings of Hurricane Fly and Champagne Fever in those two races

These are taken from jumping the first hurdle

..................................H1----H3 --- H4 -----H5 -----H6 -----H7-----H8----FINISH

Champagne Fever.......0.00-- 87.1--111.2--132.8--170.5--187.9--213.1---226.5
Hurricane Fly..............0.00-- 86.2--110.2--130.9--168.0--185.6--212.8---228.7

make of them what you will ;)
 
One has beaten two Group 1 winners on the flat, the other has won a three mile point.

I really hope it's as simple as this so here are my predictions:

Hurricane Fly is a 2 mile hurdler

Champagne Fever is a 3 mile chaser



If the pair of them don't go on to record their best TF or RPR figures in those disciplines then I will happily be proven wrong ;)

Martin
 
EC1 said:
have some more :lol:

i'm not getting into this again but i'm happy to put up the individual timings of Hurricane Fly and Champagne Fever in those two races

These are taken from jumping the first hurdle

..................................H1----H3 --- H4 -----H5 -----H6 -----H7-----H8----FINISH

Champagne Fever.......0.00-- 87.1--111.2--132.8--170.5--187.9--213.1---226.5
Hurricane Fly..............0.00-- 86.2--110.2--130.9--168.0--185.6--212.8---228.7

make of them what you will ;)
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just to add

these would be my ideal splits in % form to run the course evenly based on a decent sample of races..these are based on from the first hurdle again:

H3-------H4-------H5-------H6-------H7-------H8
38.5%--49.4%--58.7%----74.8%---82.9%---93.9%

so ideal splits for Champagne Fever ...based on final time...would have been

87.2 - 111.9 - 133.0 - 169.4 - 187.8 - 212.7

on that surface its pretty fair to say that CF was given a near on perfect even pace ride looking at the comparison between ideal and actual splits

if you now use those times as a rough model for even distribution of pace on the day then you can see why HF failed to run a fast overall time.

At hurdle 3 HF ran 1 second faster than ideal.
At hurdle 5 he was 2 seconds faster than ideal pace.
By hurdle 6 he was 2.5 seconds faster than ideal.
so between 5 and 6 he had increased his speed by a fair bit..on top of already going faster than ideal earlier.
At hurdle 7 he was still 2.5 seconds faster than even pace..lots of petrol gone

by the time he reached the last hurdle he had slowed considerably and his overall time at that point is similar to CF's..the difference between the horses at that point is that HF had gone too fast earlier..and his time from the last hurdle to the line was 2.5 seconds slower than CF

The overall time of both races tells you nothing comparatively...due completely to the early pace in the CH being too strong..and just about perfect in the supreme...a brilliant ride...as good as it gets

slow early pace damages final time..and so does over fast early pace

unless your name is Frankel:)
 
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:eek:

InformationAndDecisionMaking.png
 
Irish Stamp said:
One has beaten two Group 1 winners on the flat, the other has won a three mile point.

I really hope it's as simple as this so here are my predictions:

Hurricane Fly is a 2 mile hurdler

Champagne Fever is a 3 mile chaser



If the pair of them don't go on to record their best TF or RPR figures in those disciplines then I will happily be proven wrong ;)

Martin
Click to expand...
Did you forget to type again at the very end of that Stampy?
 
EC1 said:
have some more :lol:

i'm not getting into this again but i'm happy to put up the individual timings of Hurricane Fly and Champagne Fever in those two races

These are taken from jumping the first hurdle

..................................H1----H3 --- H4 -----H5 -----H6 -----H7-----H8----FINISH

Champagne Fever.......0.00-- 87.1--111.2--132.8--170.5--187.9--213.1---226.5
Hurricane Fly..............0.00-- 86.2--110.2--130.9--168.0--185.6--212.8---228.7

make of them what you will ;)
Click to expand...

just to add

these would be my ideal splits in % form to run the course evenly based on a decent sample of races..these are based on from the first hurdle again:

H3-------H4-------H5-------H6-------H7-------H8
38.5%--49.4%--58.7%----74.8%---82.9%---93.9%

so ideal splits for Champagne Fever ...based on final time...would have been
87.2 - 111.9 - 133.0 - 169.4 - 187.8 - 212.7

on that surface its pretty fair to say that CF was given a near on perfect even pace ride looking at the comparison between ideal and actual splits

if you now use those times as a rough model for even distribution of pace on the day then you can see why HF failed to run a fast overall time.

At hurdle 3 HF ran 1 second faster than ideal.
At hurdle 5 he was 2 seconds faster than ideal pace.
By hurdle 6 he was 2.5 seconds faster than ideal.
so between 5 and 6 he had increased his speed by a fair bit..on top of already going faster than ideal earlier.
At hurdle 7 he was still 2.5 seconds faster than even pace..lots of petrol gone

by the time he reached the last hurdle he had slowed considerably and his overall time at that point is similar to CF's..the difference between the horses at that point is that HF had gone too fast earlier..and his time from the last hurdle to the line was 2.5 seconds slower than CF

The overall time of both races tells you nothing comparatively...due completely to the early pace in the CH being too strong i..and just about perfect in the supreme

slow early pace damages final time..and so does over fast early pace
 
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Alternatively, look at Hurricane Fly's record, and have a game of 'Look at the Grade 1 winners he's cuffed'.

Clocks c0cks.....now get off my f*cking thread!! :D
 
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I'll just add ;)

those are my personal findings using a lot of past analysis..if anyone thinks its bollox then fair play to you...i'm just giving my view...a view i should add that proves my view of HF was wrong..he won a gruelling slog of race i didn't believe would suit him beforehand

right..i'm off to look at weekend flat racing trends ;)
 
Grasshopper said:
Alternatively, look at Hurricane Fly's record, and have a game of 'Look at the Grade 1 winners he's cuffed'.

Clocks c0cks.....now get off my f*cking thread!! :D
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if you read stuff properly you twig loving hand bag carrier:)...you would see that i'm giving HF a lot of credit here..if you don't want to read it properly..then don't go making wrong assumptions about whats being brought to the table

a lot of work goes into this stuff..it would be really a lot easier if i just owned a horse and told you sods when it were going to win;)..no effin effort put in whatsover...my life would be so much easier

i'm trying to enlighten you Grass...wastin me time i know:lol:

he won a speed Champion hurdle..and a slog Champion hurdle...thats quite good i reckon
 
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Grasshopper said:
I'll save you some effort; it's Bri-Nylon with hints of dandruff.

It is good to see that you re-assimilation is complete. My work here is done.

:lol:
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i think you will find i've always rated the horse highly...i once said though:)...he would have been better not running in the first CH he won..just keep mopping up that year..he would then have won the last 2 instead:lol:

;)
 
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