Champion Hurdle 2014

With full respect and admiration to your speed ratings knowledge and pace angles EC, It completely baffles the life out of me.
So I am keen to know your thoughts on The New Ones Neptune win and furthermore his CH chances?
 
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Fair shout. Lots to like about him, though he wouldn't be the first juvenile to find it all too much in open company; and he's going to be up against a singificantly better field than Katchit ever faced-down.

Jezki the obvious one at the prices, imo.

I'm long enough in the tooth to know that all good things come to an end eventually, but I'll reserve judgment on HF's chance until after the Festival Hurdle. Defeat in the Morgiana is something I'm prepared to accept FTO.
 
fonz said:
With full respect and admiration to your speed ratings knowledge and pace angles EC, It completely baffles the life out of me.
So I am keen to know your thoughts on The New Ones Neptune win and furthermore his CH chances?
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i've not really given the jumps much thought Fonz..don't tell Grass:)..Our Conor stands out on the clock...really stands out...as we did discuss at the time..the longer trip hurdlers i don't look at tbh from a time point of view

There are some pretty smart hurdlers about this season though..i really hope OC is the real deal
 
Grasshopper said:
Fair shout. Lots to like about him, though he wouldn't be the first juvenile to find it all too much in open company; and he's going to be up against a singificantly better field than Katchit ever faced-down.

Jezki the obvious one at the prices, imo.

I'm long enough in the tooth to know that all good things come to an end eventually, but I'll reserve judgment on HF's chance until after the Festival Hurdle. Defeat in the Morgiana is something I'm prepared to accept FTO.
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getting in excuses early!:lol:
 
Hamm said:
getting in excuses early!:lol:
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What can I tell you - Hamm. I'm a realist (unlike all those that bought the 2012 Champion Hurdle as HF's true form ;)).

I'm looking forward to the joust as always. Forget the Kerry Nash, Finale Hurdle or Charlie Hall meetings. For me, the Jumps season really only starts when the temperature rises on this thread.

Bring it on, you fishwife c*nts. :D
 
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EC1 said:
I'll just add ;)

those are my personal findings using a lot of past analysis..if anyone thinks its bollox then fair play to you...i'm just giving my view...a view i should add that proves my view of HF was wrong..he won a gruelling slog of race i didn't believe would suit him beforehand
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The whole thing is bollox, built as it is on an already nebulous speed % theory.. The race was 4 secs slower, ffs, and that in comparison to novices.
HF simply outsped 3 horses who essentially need further, then did what he had to, to maintain his advantage.
 
what speed % theory?

there is no speed % theory...even pace is even pace..if you go above even pace by too much early on..in fact all through a race..then you pay later

CF ran near on perfect even pace...a simple comparison with HF's splits show he didn't..no theories there..just plain observation

your theory falls down simply on the fact that if HF out speeded them then how come his time from the last hurdle to the line was slow..miles slower than CF's..that in itself totally proves the outspeed theory as flawed...he outstayed them or he would have been travelling a lot faster than CF from the last

of course the race was was 4 seconds slower..they had nothing left in the CH...and were crawling from before the last..its really clear just looking at the times...i am amazed you can't see it

demonstrate with some facts Reet..i've put plenty up..you've put none up

i don't like the idea of being proved wrong about HF re stamina..but i have to accept what the clear evidence tells me..i got it wrong...and so have you..there is no speed win here

thats my last word on this subject..wasted too much life on it already...i post to try and help people make a view using available facts...on this forum..thats a complete waste of f00kin time with folk who have not the ability to ever be wrong.

if you belive it was a speed test then fair play...i don't care:)
 
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You can't be jacking it in before the season has even started, EC1.

My comments re the clock were mischief only - principally because the times never lie, but the application (as evidenced by the most recent exchanges here) is open to such a degree of interpretation, as to render them a mere bagatelle when compared to other form-merit indicators.

Now stay on my f*cking thread!

:cool:
 
Fantastic thread already. I do enjoy thoroughly everything EC1 posts. He is the real gravy.

FWIW - McCoy says MTOY.

I still have the Peddlers scars which still haven't healed.

Our Connor is a MACHINE.
 
I'd have to agree with the conclusion of EC's analysis. 800m runners don't run fast times by sprinting the first 400m....
 
Grasshopper said:
My comments re the clock were mischief only - principally because the times never lie, but the application (as evidenced by the most recent exchanges here) is open to such a degree of interpretation, as to render them a mere bagatelle when compared to other form-merit indicators.
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Isn't that the crux of the whole debate that what happens in a race of this nature cannot be reduced to pure arithmetic, and due recognition needs to be given to the performance of each horse in the particular circumstances?
I'm all for sectionals in their place, but they were originally conceived for use over much shorter distances, around uniform tracks, with clearly defined and equal sections, and a general good early pace. Throw those ideals away, chuck in 8 obstacles at disparate intervals, and allow that even one jump (good or bad) can change the whole complexion of a section, and it should be apparent that their usefulness as anything more than a guide is severely limited.

In the race itself there was no breakneck pace (there was never more than about 2 secs between they and the novices, which would hardly tax the principals) and that the 2 horses who set this supposedly overstrong pace stayed on into 2nd and 4th, with Hurricane Fly moving past them easily, to win more comfortably than he had previously.
Could he have gone faster? Probably, though he never needed to, and the 3 closest to him are to be stepped up in distance this season, which tells its own story.
 
Ooh no not departing lads..just bored with going over the same sectional discussion

i'm already looking forward to discarding the fighting fifth winner from calculations;)
 
Kiyoshi will be better suited by 6f rather than 7f
The problem for her is the wide course and posible draw effect, she is the best fillie in the race.
 
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